{
 "manifest": {
  "id": "p2_05_budget",
  "title": "The smallest imprint one dwell could detect",
  "date": "2026-09-28",
  "started_utc": "2026-09-28T05:16:09+00:00",
  "runtime_s": 41.1,
  "commit": "d9e33c2",
  "params": {
   "look_s": 1.96,
   "aperture_s": 24.485484,
   "independent_looks": 12.492594,
   "detection_sigma": 3.0,
   "truck_pass_s": 4.0,
   "reflector_gain_db": 20.0,
   "check": {
    "realisations": 24,
    "f_hz": 0.2
   }
  },
  "environment": {
   "python": "3.11.3",
   "numpy": "2.4.6",
   "numba": "0.67.0",
   "threads": 16,
   "cpus": 16
  }
 },
 "targets": [
  {
   "target": "ordinary ground, complex registration (published protocols, R4)",
   "sigma_m_s": 1.502e-05,
   "response": 0.013456,
   "response_se": 0.005757,
   "source": "P2-03, real Giza texture"
  },
  {
   "target": "ordinary ground, magnitudes",
   "sigma_m_s": 0.0001743,
   "response": 0.214649,
   "response_se": 0.066778,
   "source": "P2-03, real Giza texture"
  },
  {
   "target": "a lone bright scatterer",
   "sigma_m_s": 5.553e-05,
   "response": 0.997826,
   "response_se": 0.02128,
   "signal_to_clutter_db": 37.742443064633854,
   "source": "P2-03, simulated on the real geometry"
  },
  {
   "target": "a corner reflector 20 dB brighter (designed; in no archive image)",
   "sigma_m_s": 5.553e-06,
   "response": 1.0,
   "response_se": 0.0,
   "signal_to_clutter_db": 57.742443064633854,
   "source": "the bright scatterer, sigma scaled as 1 / sqrt(signal-to-clutter)"
  }
 ],
 "rows": [
  {
   "case": "Giza microseisms, measured",
   "target": "ordinary ground, complex registration (published protocols, R4)",
   "imprint_m_s": 3.247e-12,
   "motion_m_s": 4.9e-08,
   "a_min_m_s": 0.0012376076087106322,
   "shortfall": 381154175.7655165,
   "shake_needed_m_s": 18.67655461251031,
   "note": "1.96 s looks, 12.5 of them"
  },
  {
   "case": "Giza microseisms, measured",
   "target": "ordinary ground, magnitudes",
   "imprint_m_s": 3.247e-12,
   "motion_m_s": 4.9e-08,
   "a_min_m_s": 0.0008998840884657091,
   "shortfall": 277143236.36147493,
   "shake_needed_m_s": 13.580018581712272,
   "note": "1.96 s looks, 12.5 of them"
  },
  {
   "case": "Giza microseisms, measured",
   "target": "a lone bright scatterer",
   "imprint_m_s": 3.247e-12,
   "motion_m_s": 4.9e-08,
   "a_min_m_s": 6.168821922757725e-05,
   "shortfall": 18998527.633993607,
   "shake_needed_m_s": 0.9309278540656868,
   "note": "1.96 s looks, 12.5 of them"
  },
  {
   "case": "Giza microseisms, measured",
   "target": "a corner reflector 20 dB brighter (designed; in no archive image)",
   "imprint_m_s": 3.247e-12,
   "motion_m_s": 4.9e-08,
   "a_min_m_s": 6.155410903897652e-06,
   "shortfall": 1895722.4834917313,
   "shake_needed_m_s": 0.09289040169109485,
   "note": "1.96 s looks, 12.5 of them"
  },
  {
   "case": "The world's noisiest stations",
   "target": "ordinary ground, complex registration (published protocols, R4)",
   "imprint_m_s": 2.336e-10,
   "motion_m_s": 3.525e-06,
   "a_min_m_s": 0.0012376076087106322,
   "shortfall": 5297977.777014692,
   "shake_needed_m_s": 18.67537166397679,
   "note": "1.96 s looks, 12.5 of them"
  },
  {
   "case": "The world's noisiest stations",
   "target": "ordinary ground, magnitudes",
   "imprint_m_s": 2.336e-10,
   "motion_m_s": 3.525e-06,
   "a_min_m_s": 0.0008998840884657091,
   "shortfall": 3852243.529390878,
   "shake_needed_m_s": 13.579158441102846,
   "note": "1.96 s looks, 12.5 of them"
  },
  {
   "case": "The world's noisiest stations",
   "target": "a lone bright scatterer",
   "imprint_m_s": 2.336e-10,
   "motion_m_s": 3.525e-06,
   "a_min_m_s": 6.168821922757725e-05,
   "shortfall": 264076.2809399711,
   "shake_needed_m_s": 0.9308688903133981,
   "note": "1.96 s looks, 12.5 of them"
  },
  {
   "case": "The world's noisiest stations",
   "target": "a corner reflector 20 dB brighter (designed; in no archive image)",
   "imprint_m_s": 2.336e-10,
   "motion_m_s": 3.525e-06,
   "a_min_m_s": 6.155410903897652e-06,
   "shortfall": 26350.217910520772,
   "shake_needed_m_s": 0.09288451813458573,
   "note": "1.96 s looks, 12.5 of them"
  },
  {
   "case": "Giza 1-3 Hz, measured",
   "target": "ordinary ground, complex registration (published protocols, R4)",
   "imprint_m_s": 3.409e-11,
   "motion_m_s": 2.9e-08,
   "a_min_m_s": 0.004168043793439734,
   "shortfall": 122265878.3643219,
   "shake_needed_m_s": 3.545710472565335,
   "note": "250 ms looks (resolving 4 m), 98 of them"
  },
  {
   "case": "Giza 1-3 Hz, measured",
   "target": "ordinary ground, magnitudes",
   "imprint_m_s": 3.409e-11,
   "motion_m_s": 2.9e-08,
   "a_min_m_s": 0.0030306506386562166,
   "shortfall": 88901456.1060785,
   "shake_needed_m_s": 2.578142227076277,
   "note": "250 ms looks (resolving 4 m), 98 of them"
  },
  {
   "case": "Giza 1-3 Hz, measured",
   "target": "a lone bright scatterer",
   "imprint_m_s": 3.409e-11,
   "motion_m_s": 2.9e-08,
   "a_min_m_s": 0.00020775502467031994,
   "shortfall": 6094309.905260191,
   "shake_needed_m_s": 0.17673498725254558,
   "note": "250 ms looks (resolving 4 m), 98 of them"
  },
  {
   "case": "Giza 1-3 Hz, measured",
   "target": "a corner reflector 20 dB brighter (designed; in no archive image)",
   "imprint_m_s": 3.409e-11,
   "motion_m_s": 2.9e-08,
   "a_min_m_s": 2.0730336524668666e-05,
   "shortfall": 608106.0875526156,
   "shake_needed_m_s": 0.01763507653902585,
   "note": "250 ms looks (resolving 4 m), 98 of them"
  },
  {
   "case": "A truck over a bump 15 m away",
   "target": "ordinary ground, complex registration (published protocols, R4)",
   "imprint_m_s": 8.817e-07,
   "motion_m_s": 0.0001,
   "a_min_m_s": 0.02824146723677961,
   "shortfall": 32030.698918883532,
   "shake_needed_m_s": 3.203069891888353,
   "note": "33 ms looks (resolving 33 m), 120 of them during a truck's pass"
  },
  {
   "case": "A truck over a bump 15 m away",
   "target": "ordinary ground, magnitudes",
   "imprint_m_s": 8.817e-07,
   "motion_m_s": 0.0001,
   "a_min_m_s": 0.02053481800082058,
   "shortfall": 23290.028355246206,
   "shake_needed_m_s": 2.3290028355246206,
   "note": "33 ms looks (resolving 33 m), 120 of them during a truck's pass"
  },
  {
   "case": "A truck over a bump 15 m away",
   "target": "a lone bright scatterer",
   "imprint_m_s": 8.817e-07,
   "motion_m_s": 0.0001,
   "a_min_m_s": 0.0014076883577226298,
   "shortfall": 1596.5615943321195,
   "shake_needed_m_s": 0.15965615943321196,
   "note": "33 ms looks (resolving 33 m), 120 of them during a truck's pass"
  },
  {
   "case": "A truck over a bump 15 m away",
   "target": "a corner reflector 20 dB brighter (designed; in no archive image)",
   "imprint_m_s": 8.817e-07,
   "motion_m_s": 0.0001,
   "a_min_m_s": 0.0001404628043232941,
   "shortfall": 159.3090669426042,
   "shake_needed_m_s": 0.01593090669426042,
   "note": "33 ms looks (resolving 33 m), 120 of them during a truck's pass"
  }
 ],
 "check": {
  "amplitude_m_s": 6.168821922757725e-05,
  "looks": 12,
  "null_fits_m_s": [
   1.589e-05,
   2.234e-05,
   2.13e-05,
   2.779e-05,
   3.602e-05,
   1.489e-05,
   1.766e-05,
   2.901e-05,
   2.014e-05,
   1.886e-05,
   3.304e-05,
   2.181e-05,
   1.179e-05,
   2.176e-05,
   3.319e-05,
   2.372e-05,
   1.718e-05,
   1.835e-05,
   2.31e-05,
   1.487e-05,
   2.009e-05,
   2.366e-05,
   1.612e-05,
   3.017e-05
  ],
  "signal_fits_m_s": [
   3.779e-05,
   4.782e-05,
   7.293e-05,
   7.613e-05,
   3.535e-05,
   3.881e-05,
   4.004e-05,
   5.524e-05,
   4.469e-05,
   3.481e-05,
   8.344e-05,
   5.365e-05,
   6.086e-05,
   7.152e-05,
   6.114e-05,
   6.959e-05,
   5.298e-05,
   6.942e-05,
   5.647e-05,
   3.803e-05,
   7.176e-05,
   6.215e-05,
   4.563e-05,
   7.505e-05
  ],
  "null_rms_m_s": 1.631e-05,
  "null_95th_m_s": 3.316e-05,
  "detected_fraction": 1.0,
  "signal_over_null_rms": 2.447653,
  "predicted_sigma_m_s": 2.056273974252575e-05
 },
 "finding": "One dwell falls short of the chamber by a factor of 3e+08 on ordinary ground and 2e+07 even on a bright scatterer directly above it. Under Giza's microseisms the chamber's imprint is 3.2e-06 um/s; the smallest a dwell could detect, allowing every look, a 3-sigma threshold and the best tracker, is 900 um/s on the plateau's own texture and 62 um/s on a bright point (6 um/s on a corner reflector no archive image contains); the published protocols' complex registration responds to about 1% of the motion. For the plateau the ground would have to shake at 14 m/s, beyond the strongest earthquakes recorded, and keep shaking for the whole dwell. The threshold is checked by simulation: without motion the bright point's fitted sway scatters by 16 um/s against the 21 um/s the formula uses, and a sway at the threshold is found in 100% of 24 realisations at a 5% false-alarm rate."
}