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Deep Memory · claim DEEP-C031 · Observation rung · What survives the water

In the Deep Memory flood text-coding pilot, the coded details of 263 flood-story summaries cluster by region. True if the pilot's coded data show regional clustering under its stated measure.

The page's AI coding of 263 flood-story summaries finds the details cluster by region.

AI-extractedorigin: report 2026-09-09-inbox-deep-memory-200334

credibility — is the claim itself true?

Unresolved

Held on its anchor; the record proposed for it was not admitted, and the coded data are not in hand.

diagnosticity — how much does it decide the thesis?

low

Every account predicts some regional clustering.

Evidence

No evidence records attached yet — that absence is information too.

strongest unresolved objection

One AI coded one compiler's summaries, not original accounts.

what would change our mind

  • The coded data released and re-coded by people from original texts.

Assessment history

Append-only AI overlay records; the canon claim file is never mutated.

Unresolvedconfidence: low · Gemini 3.8 Flash (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.8-flash · run 2026-09-09-check-gemini-210940 · unreviewed draft

The ledger contains no evidence records reporting the data, methodology, or clustering metrics for the Deep Memory pilot of 263 flood-story summaries. Without an extracted evidence record documenting the regional clustering coefficients, the claim cannot be empirically substantiated. The strongest opposing consideration is the author's summary assertion on the project page that coded details cluster along geographic lines.

Unresolvedconfidence: low · GLM 5.3 Flash (Z.ai, via Venice) — independent check run via z-ai-glm-5-3-flash · run 2026-09-09-check-glm-210940 · unreviewed draft

The claim asserts a statistical result of the founder's flood text-coding pilot, but no evidence record reports the pilot's data, measure or clustering statistic; only the claim's sourceAnchor quotes the page. The coding scheme, the 263 summaries and the stated measure are all unretrieved. The strongest opposing consideration is that regional clustering of flood details is expected under ordinary regional transmission, so the result is plausible — but plausibility is not verification.

Unresolvedconfidence: high · GPT-5.6 Sol (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.6-sol · run 2026-09-09-check-gpt-210940 · unreviewed draft

No evidence record reports a clustering statistic, regional assignment procedure, null comparison, or even a direct statement of this pilot result. The number of summaries and the claimed regional clustering therefore remain unaudited case assertions. The strongest opposing consideration is that the experiment is described as having coded 263 summaries, but description of a study does not verify its clustering result.

Unresolvedconfidence: low · Grok 4.5 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.5 · run 2026-09-09-check-grok-210940 · unreviewed draft

No evidence record reports the clustering statistic or the coded matrix for the 263 flood summaries. The claim lacks any ledger support. Strongest opposing consideration is the page's assertion of regional clustering, which cannot be evaluated without the data.

Unresolvedconfidence: low · Opus 5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5 · run 2026-09-09-check-opus-210940 · unreviewed draft

No evidence record in the ledger is attached to this claim at all; it rests solely on the source anchor's assertion that the coded summaries "show regional clustering." The claim's truth condition names a "stated measure" that has not been retrieved, and clustering results are highly sensitive to the coding scheme and distance metric chosen. The strongest opposing consideration is that regional clustering of flood-story details is antecedently very likely on diffusion grounds alone, so the claim is probably true — but a probably-true claim with zero supporting records is unresolved on this ledger, not supported.

Unresolvedconfidence: low · claude-fable-5-1 · run 2026-09-09-edition-210937 · unreviewed draft

No evidence record: the pilot's report was rejected on a locator mismatch. The pilot itself had one AI code a compiler's summaries of 263 stories rather than a representative collection of original accounts.

Unresolvedconfidence: low · Gemini 3.8 Flash (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.8-flash · run 2026-09-10-check-gemini-121549 · unreviewed draft

Although the claim summarizes the stated results of the Deep Memory flood text-coding pilot, no evidence record containing the pilot's data, distance metrics, or clustering statistics has been entered into the ledger. Without access to the pilot's methodology or outputs, the claim remains unresolved. Evaluated strictly on the provided ledger. The strongest opposing consideration is that arbitrary coding definitions or geographical bucket selection could produce an illusion of regional clustering where none exists.

Unresolvedconfidence: low · GLM 5.3 Flash (Z.ai, via Venice) — independent check run via z-ai-glm-5-3-flash · run 2026-09-10-check-glm-121549 · unreviewed draft

No evidence record touches the flood pilot at all; the 263-summary clustering exists only as a quote inside the claim's own anchor. Under this ledger's rules that is hypothesis material, not evidence. The strongest opposing consideration in favour of eventual support is that regional clustering is a robust, easily reproduced finding once the coded data are retrieved — but it would also be weakly diagnostic, since regional clustering is expected under regional transmission as much as under shared deep history.

Unresolvedconfidence: low · GPT-5.6 Sol (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.6-sol · run 2026-09-10-check-gpt-121549 · unreviewed draft

No evidence record supplies the 263 summaries, their coding, the regional labels, the clustering measure, or a comparison against an appropriate null model. Regional clustering is therefore asserted but not reproducible from the ledger. The strongest opposing consideration is that transmission and shared documentation sources make regional clustering plausible, though they would not validate this particular pilot result.

Weakly supportedconfidence: low · Grok 4.5 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.5 · run 2026-09-10-check-grok-121549 · unreviewed draft

The page asserts regional clustering of 263 coded flood summaries, yet no evidence record reproduces the similarity matrix or clustering statistic; only the claim statement itself exists. Support is therefore minimal. The strongest opposing consideration is that coding categories may themselves embed regional expectations, producing circular clusters.

Unresolvedconfidence: low · Opus 5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5 · run 2026-09-10-check-opus-121549 · unreviewed draft

No evidence record in the ledger addresses the flood text-coding pilot at all; the 263 summaries, the coding scheme and the clustering measure are unretrieved, and the claim's truth condition explicitly requires the pilot's coded data. Nothing here permits a verdict in either direction. Opposing consideration: regional clustering of narrative details is antecedently likely for reasons of language, contact and the compilers' own regional sourcing, so the claim is plausible — but plausibility under an unstated measure is not support.

Unresolvedconfidence: low · claude-fable-5-1 · run 2026-09-10-edition-121547 · unreviewed draft

No evidence record survived for the flood pilot's pattern; the page reports regional clustering of coded details from 263 summaries, coded by one AI from one compiler's summaries.

Unresolvedconfidence: low · claude-fable-5-1 · run 2026-09-19-edition-130205 · unreviewed draft

Held on its anchor with no admitted evidence record; the pilot's coded data and its clustering measure are not in hand.

Unresolvedconfidence: low · Gemini 3.8 Flash (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.8-flash · run 2026-09-28-check-gemini-140630 · unreviewed draft

The claim specifies a precise empirical truth condition: whether the coded data of 263 flood narrative summaries exhibit statistical regional clustering under the pilot's defined metric. Neither the raw text-coding matrix, the clustering algorithms, nor the statistical outputs of this pilot are present in the evidence ledger. While the case summary mentions this investigation, unaudited summary descriptions cannot validate an unverified statistical claim. The strongest opposing consideration is that the founder's site narrative explicitly affirms this regional clustering, which aligns with expected cultural diffusion patterns in anthropological literature, but the primary pilot data remain absent.

Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · Gemini 3.8 Flash (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.8-flash · run 2026-09-28-check-gemini-142201 · unreviewed draft

The ledger contains no evidence records summarizing or evaluating the data from the Deep Memory flood text-coding pilot (study 04), which analyzed 263 narrative summaries for regional clustering. The claim is explicitly conditioned on the pilot's coded data reproducing that regional clustering, but neither the dataset nor the statistical clustering output has been admitted to the ledger. The strongest opposing consideration is that the site's author explicitly summarizes regional clustering as a verified outcome of the study 04 pilot in the founding narrative.

Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · Gemini 3.8 Flash (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.8-flash · run 2026-09-28-check-gemini-143733 · unreviewed draft

The ledger contains no evidence records, data tables, or statistical outputs from the Deep Memory flood text-coding pilot. Because the claim explicitly specifies that the truth condition depends on whether the pilot's coded data demonstrate regional clustering under its stated measure, it cannot be evaluated without the primary experimental data or publication in hand. The strongest opposing consideration is the narrative statement on the founder's site asserting that regional clustering was observed across the 263 coded summaries, which serves as hypothesis material but remains unverified.

Unresolvedconfidence: low · GLM 5.3 Flash (Z.ai, via Venice) — independent check run via z-ai-glm-5-3-flash · run 2026-09-28-check-glm-140630 · unreviewed draft

No evidence record was extracted for this claim: the flood pilot's regional clustering exists only as the page's anchor quote, with no coded data, method note, or supporting record in the ledger. The strongest opposing consideration is that the claim is precisely worded to the pilot's own output, but an unretrieved self-report of a clustering result cannot be weighed as evidence of the clustering.

Unresolvedconfidence: low · GLM 5.3 Flash (Z.ai, via Venice) — independent check run via z-ai-glm-5-3-flash · run 2026-09-28-check-glm-142201 · unreviewed draft

The ledger contains no evidence record for the flood-coding pilot: no record of the 263 summaries, the coding scheme, the clustering measure or its result. The claim's own truth condition requires the coded data to show regional clustering under a stated measure, which nothing retrieved establishes. It cannot be assessed either way from this packet.

Unresolvedconfidence: low · GLM 5.3 Flash (Z.ai, via Venice) — independent check run via z-ai-glm-5-3-flash · run 2026-09-28-check-glm-143733 · unreviewed draft

No evidence record in the ledger concerns the flood pilot at all — no coded data, no methodology, no result record; the claim's truth condition requires the pilot's coded data to show regional clustering under a stated measure, none of which is in hand. The strongest opposing consideration is only that the page presumably reports the result, but a founder's unrecorded assertion cannot be weighed.

Unresolvedconfidence: low · GPT-5.6 Sol (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.6-sol · run 2026-09-28-check-gpt-140630 · unreviewed draft

No evidence record supplies the 263 coded summaries, a regional clustering statistic, or the stated distance and null model. The claim therefore cannot be reproduced or evaluated from the packet. The strongest opposing consideration is the founder's reported result, but it has not entered the ledger as an evidential record with data or method.

Unresolvedconfidence: high · GPT-5.6 Sol (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.6-sol · run 2026-09-28-check-gpt-142201 · unreviewed draft

No evidence record reports the flood pilot's coding, regional labels, clustering measure, null comparison, or result. Consequently neither the sample size nor the claimed regional clustering can be verified from the evidence ledger. The strongest consideration in favor is that the case materials describe such a pilot, but without an evidence record or data that description does not support the statistical claim.

Unresolvedconfidence: high · GPT-5.6 Sol (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.6-sol · run 2026-09-28-check-gpt-143733 · unreviewed draft

No evidence record provides the 263 coded summaries, the regional labels, the clustering measure, or a reported clustering result. The claim's source anchor is not an evidence record and cannot substitute for the absent analysis. The strongest consideration favoring the claim is that a flood-coding pilot is described as existing, but existence alone does not establish regional clustering.

Unresolvedconfidence: low · Grok 4.5 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.5 · run 2026-09-28-check-grok-140630 · unreviewed draft

No evidence record in the packet reproduces or audits the regional-clustering result for the 263 coded flood summaries; the claim rests solely on the founder's unretrieved pilot statement. Strongest opposing consideration is that an alternative distance metric or coding scheme could erase the apparent regional signal.

Weakly supportedconfidence: low · Grok 4.5 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.5 · run 2026-09-28-check-grok-142201 · unreviewed draft

The founder page reports that the coded details of 263 flood-story summaries cluster by region; no coded data, distance matrix or clustering statistic is in the ledger. Self-report of a pilot. Strongest opposing consideration is that regional clustering is the null expectation under independent invention plus later literary diffusion; the pilot does not yet show excess clustering beyond that null.

Unresolvedconfidence: low · Grok 4.5 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.5 · run 2026-09-28-check-grok-143733 · unreviewed draft

The claim rests on the founder's report that coded details of 263 summaries cluster by region; no coded data, distance matrix or clustering statistic is present in the ledger. Without those the result cannot be evaluated. Strongest opposing consideration is that any coding scheme using geographic metadata can produce apparent regional clusters by construction.

Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · Gemini 3.8 Flash (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.8-flash · run 2026-09-30-check-gemini-103112 · unreviewed draft

The claim states that in the Deep Memory flood text-coding pilot, the coded details of 263 flood summaries cluster by geographical region. However, no evidence record in the ledger contains the pilot's coding dataset, cluster algorithms, or statistical test outputs. Because the underlying empirical data from this private research project were never retrieved or audited, the truth condition—that the pilot data demonstrate regional clustering—cannot be evaluated. The strongest opposing consideration is that regional motif clustering is a standard, robust finding in computational folklore studies (e.g., Berezkin's work), making the author's summary description highly plausible.

Unresolvedconfidence: low · GLM 5.3 Flash (Z.ai, via Venice) — independent check run via z-ai-glm-5-3-flash · run 2026-09-30-check-glm-103112 · unreviewed draft

No evidence record bears on the flood pilot's regional clustering; the pilot's coded data for 263 summaries were never retrieved. The claim is purely about what the experiment's data show, so it is untestable from the ledger as it stands. The strongest opposing consideration is that regional clustering of flood details is unsurprising, but that prior cuts both ways and settles nothing about the pilot.

Unresolvedconfidence: high · GPT-5.6 Sol (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.6-sol · run 2026-09-30-check-gpt-103112 · unreviewed draft

No evidence record reports a clustering statistic, regional assignment, null comparison, or underlying coding for the 263 flood summaries. The claim therefore lacks evidence even at self-report level in the admitted evidence ledger. The strongest consideration against the unresolved verdict is the claim file's statement that clustering occurred, which cannot replace a result-bearing evidence record.

Unresolvedconfidence: low · Grok 4.5 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.5 · run 2026-09-30-check-grok-103112 · unreviewed draft

The claim that coded details of 263 flood-story summaries cluster by region is a report of the founder's pilot; no evidence record extracts or reproduces the coded data, the clustering measure, or any statistical output. Strongest opposing consideration is that without the underlying matrix the reported regional signal cannot be evaluated for robustness or coding artefacts.

Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · Opus 5.5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5-5 · run 2026-09-30-check-opus-053723 · unreviewed draft

No evidence record carries the flood pilot's result. The statement that the coded summaries cluster by region exists only as this claim's anchor on the founder page, and the ledger holds no record on the flood investigation at all: not its measure, its coding scheme nor its sample of 263 summaries. The truth condition, clustering under the pilot's stated measure, therefore cannot be checked. The strongest opposing consideration is that regional clustering is the expected outcome of almost any geographically structured storytelling, so the claim is plausible a priori. That same generality means that, even if confirmed, it would not discriminate a diversified common source from regional diffusion or missionary-era retelling.

Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · Opus 5.5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5-5 · run 2026-09-30-check-opus-103112 · unreviewed draft

No evidence record addresses the flood pilot. The claim rests on its anchor in the founder's page, and neither the coded data nor the pilot's "stated measure" of clustering appears anywhere in the ledger. The strongest opposing consideration is that the page states the result plainly and the pattern is plausible a priori. But plausibility cannot confirm what a specific unaudited pilot found. Regional clustering would also be expected under regional diffusion and regional retelling alike, so even its confirmation would not discriminate between histories.

Unresolvedconfidence: low · claude-opus-5-5 · run 2026-09-30-edition-091201 · unreviewed draft

Held on its anchor; the record proposed for it was not admitted, and the coded data are not in hand.