Append-only AI overlay records; the canon claim file is never mutated.
Well supportedconfidence: high · Claude Fable 5 (Cursor) · run orch-or-2026-08-22-fable-1 · unreviewed draft
Peer-reviewed in a strong journal, open access, quantitative, with internal structure-dependence controls. Assessed as a measurement, which is all it is: the inferred length is about one tubulin dimer and the modeling includes an incoherent-migration comparison, so it cannot be upgraded into a coherence result. Unreplicated, and Hameroff and Penrose are co-authors.
Well supportedconfidence: moderate · Gemini 3.1 Pro (Google) · run 2026-08-23-gemini31-1 · unreviewed draft
The measurement of ~6.6 nm exciton diffusion and its reduction by etomidate and isoflurane is published in a rigorous journal and includes internal structure-dependence controls. It is graded moderate only because it relies on indirect quencher-concentration inference and lacks independent laboratory replication. Furthermore, the length scale observed (one tubulin dimer) is insufficient to support Orch OR's neural-scale requirements.
Well supportedconfidence: high · GPT-5.1 (OpenAI), independent judge run · run 2026-08-23-gpt51-1 · unreviewed draft
Kalra et al., in a strong peer-reviewed venue, explicitly report excitation diffusion of 6.6 nm in microtubules inferred from quencher-dependent fluorescence lifetimes, with anesthetics reducing this diffusion. The result is internally controlled (polymerization dependence, protofilament-insensitivity) and quantitatively specified in the abstract. While indirect (inference from quenching) and not yet independently replicated, there is no contrary measurement in the ledger and the methods are standard. The main objection is that the length is inferred, not directly imaged, and proponent involvement reduces independence; nonetheless, the basic measurement is well-supported as stated.
Well supportedconfidence: moderate · Grok 4.6 (xAI), independent judge run · run 2026-08-23-grok46-1 · unreviewed draft
The measurement as worded is stated in the paper’s own abstract: electronic energy diffuses over 6.6 nm in microtubules, and etomidate and isoflurane reduce that diffusion. The work is peer-reviewed in a strong chemistry journal, quantitative, and internally controlled (polymerization mattered; 13- versus 14-protofilament architecture did not). Diffusion length is inferred from concentration-dependent quenching rather than directly imaged, the specific reduced values (~5.6 and ~5.8 nm) are reported via the deep-research reading of the paper body rather than verified against it here, and no independent laboratory has replicated the result. The strongest opposing consideration is independence: Hameroff, Penrose, Craddock, and Tuszyński are co-authors, so the most important experiment for the theory is a collaboration including its authors rather than an outside test.
Well supportedconfidence: moderate · Kimi K3 (Moonshot, via Venice) — independent check run via kimi-k3 · run 2026-08-23-check-kimi · unreviewed draft
Assessed as the measurement claim it is: peer-reviewed in a strong general-chemistry journal, open access, quantitative, with the 6.6 nm figure and the anesthetic reduction both in the abstract, and internal structure-dependence controls that argue against artifact. Held back from "established" because the diffusion length is inferred from concentration-dependent quenching rather than directly imaged, no independent laboratory has replicated it, and the specific reduced values (~5.6/5.8 nm) come from the paper body as relayed rather than verified text. The strongest opposing consideration is independence: Hameroff, Penrose, Craddock, and Tuszyński are co-authors, so the theory's most important experiment is not an outside test of it — and the modest ~13% anesthetic effect admits an ordinary chromophore-environment reading.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Opus 5 (Claude), independent judge run · run 2026-08-23-opus5-1 · unreviewed draft
Both halves of the statement are in the paper's own abstract, published open access in a strong general-chemistry journal, with internal structure-dependence controls. I hold it to provisionally rather than well supported on a standard I apply uniformly across this case: a single unreplicated measurement of an inferred quantity does not reach the higher label. The diffusion length is derived from concentration-dependent quenching rather than directly imaged, no outside laboratory has reproduced it, and the specific reduced values are relayed from the paper body rather than verified in this import. The strongest opposing consideration is independence rather than quality: Hameroff, Penrose, Craddock and Tuszyński are co-authors, so the most important experiment for the theory is a collaboration including the theory's authors rather than an outside test of it. That is a real qualification on weight, not an ad hominem, and it is precisely what an independent replication would remove.
Well supportedconfidence: high · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-25-auto-6bwy · unreviewed draft
Peer-reviewed and quantitative, with internal structure-dependence controls (polymerization matters, protofilament number does not) that argue against artifact. Assessed strictly as a diffusion-length measurement; unreplicated, and the theory's principals are co-authors.
Well supportedconfidence: high · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-25-auto-jlsi · unreviewed draft
Peer-reviewed, quantitative, with internal structure-dependence controls, and assessed strictly as a measurement of a diffusion length rather than a coherence result. Unreplicated, and the theory's principals are co-authors.
Well supportedconfidence: high · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-25-auto-scxb · unreviewed draft
Peer-reviewed, quantitative, with internal structure-dependence controls that argue against artifact, and assessed strictly as a diffusion-length measurement. Unreplicated, and the theory's principals are co-authors.
Well supportedconfidence: moderate · Gemini 3.1 Pro (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.1-pro-preview · run 2026-08-25-check-gemini · unreviewed draft
Published in a rigorous chemistry journal, this study quantitatively measured an excitation diffusion length of 6.6 nm that was reduced by etomidate and isoflurane, establishing the best experimental link between anesthetics and microtubule physics. The confidence is moderate because it relies on quencher-concentration inference, lacks independent replication, and the author list includes the theory's originators. Importantly, this measures an incoherent energy migration, not a quantum coherence time.
Well supportedconfidence: high · GPT-5.1 (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.1 · run 2026-08-25-check-gpt · unreviewed draft
The Kalra experiment is well controlled and quantitative: it infers a diffusion length of about 6.6 nm in polymerized microtubules using quencher-dependent lifetime measurements and reports reduced diffusion in the presence of 50 μM etomidate or isoflurane, with these statements appearing in the abstract. The polymerization dependence argues against artifact, and the magnitude of the measured changes is consistent across conditions. The main opposing consideration is that the diffusion length is inferred rather than directly imaged and has not yet been independently replicated, so numerical values might shift with methodology even if the qualitative findings stand.
Well supportedconfidence: moderate · Grok 4.6 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.6 · run 2026-08-25-check-grok · unreviewed draft
The 6.6 nm diffusion length and the anesthetic reduction are stated in the paper's own abstract, in a strong general-chemistry journal, with internal structure-dependence controls that argue against artifact. Assessing the measurement as worded, not its theoretical use, that is sufficient. The strongest opposing consideration is that the length is inferred from quencher-concentration lifetimes rather than directly imaged, no independent laboratory has replicated it, and Hameroff and Penrose are co-authors — so the flagship observation is not an outside test of the theory that cites it.
Well supportedconfidence: moderate · Kimi K3 (Moonshot, via Venice) — independent check run via kimi-k3 · run 2026-08-25-check-kimi · unreviewed draft
Assessed as the measurement is worded: peer-reviewed in a strong general-chemistry journal, open access, quantitative, with internal structure-dependence controls, and both the 6.6 nm figure and the anesthetic reduction are stated in the paper's own abstract. Qualifications on the record: the diffusion length is inferred from concentration-dependent quenching rather than directly imaged, no independent laboratory has replicated it, and the specific reduced values (~5.6/5.8 nm) come from the paper body via the deep-research report rather than verified text. The strongest opposing consideration is independence: Hameroff and Penrose are co-authors, so the most important experiment for the theory is a collaboration with its authors rather than an outside test; and the modest anesthetic effect is compatible with ordinary perturbation of chromophore environments. What it measures is a diffusion length, not a coherence time — it cannot be upgraded into the measurement ORCH-C010 needs.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Opus 5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5 · run 2026-08-25-check-opus · unreviewed draft
The 6.6 nm figure and the anesthetic reduction are both stated in the paper's own abstract, in a strong open-access general-chemistry journal, with internal structure-dependence controls. I grade this below the case's "well_supported" for three reasons recorded in the file itself: the diffusion length is inferred from concentration-dependent quenching rather than directly imaged, no independent laboratory has replicated it, and the specific reduced values (~5.6 and ~5.8 nm) come from the paper body via a secondary report the import did not verify. The strongest opposing consideration in the other direction is that the measurement is peer-reviewed, publicly checkable and internally controlled, so a reader could reasonably call a single well-executed measurement in a good venue well supported; unreplicated single-laboratory measurements of contested phenomena are, historically, where errors concentrate.
Well supportedconfidence: high · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-26-auto-c256 · unreviewed draft
Peer-reviewed, quantitative, with internal structure-dependence controls (polymerization matters, protofilament number does not) that argue against artifact, and assessed strictly as a diffusion-length measurement. Unreplicated, with the theory's principals among the co-authors.
Well supportedconfidence: high · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-27-auto-mxfv · unreviewed draft
Peer-reviewed, quantitative, with internal structure-dependence controls (polymerization matters, protofilament number does not) that argue against artifact, and assessed strictly as a diffusion-length measurement. Unreplicated, with the theory's principals among the co-authors.
Well supportedconfidence: high · Gemini 3.1 Pro (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.1-pro-preview · run 2026-08-27-check-gemini · unreviewed draft
The Kalra experiment directly inferred 6.6 nm electronic energy diffusion in microtubules, which was reduced by etomidate and isoflurane (ORCH-E001, ORCH-E002). The strongest opposing consideration is the lack of independent replication and the presence of proponent authors on the paper, coupled with the picrotoxin confound (ORCH-E003) challenging its pharmacological specificity.
Well supportedconfidence: high · GPT-5.1 (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.1 · run 2026-08-27-check-gpt · unreviewed draft
Kalra’s ACS Central Science paper (E001–E002) explicitly reports a 6.6 nm exciton-diffusion length in polymerized microtubules inferred from quencher-dependent tryptophan fluorescence, and that 50 μM etomidate or isoflurane reduces this length; the result is peer-reviewed and structurally controlled (polymerization-dependence, protofilament independence). Although the exact reduced values come from the un-read paper body, the qualitative claim is clearly supported by the abstract. The strongest opposing consideration is that diffusion length is indirectly inferred and unreplicated by an independent lab, and the presence of a comparable picrotoxin effect (E003) cautions against reading too much anesthetic-specific significance into the modulation.
Well supportedconfidence: moderate · Grok 4.6 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.6 · run 2026-08-27-check-grok · unreviewed draft
The 6.6 nm diffusion length and the anesthetic reduction are stated in Kalra et al.'s own abstract, in a strong general-chemistry journal, with internal structure-dependence controls (polymerization mattered; 13- versus 14-protofilament architecture did not). The quantity is an excitation diffusion length inferred from concentration-dependent quenching, not a coherence time, and the authors' modeling includes an incoherent energy-migration comparison. Strongest opposing consideration: the experiment is unreplicated, Hameroff and Penrose are co-authors, the specific reduced lengths (about 5.6 and 5.8 nm) are relayed from a secondary reading of the paper body rather than verified against it in this file, and a modest ~13% optical shift is compatible with ordinary perturbation of chromophore environments.
Well supportedconfidence: moderate · Kimi K3 (Moonshot, via Venice) — independent check run via kimi-k3 · run 2026-08-27-check-kimi · unreviewed draft
The 6.6 nm diffusion figure and the anesthetic reduction are stated in the verified abstract of a peer-reviewed paper in a strong general-chemistry journal, with internal structure-dependence controls (polymerization mattered, protofilament number did not). Confidence is moderate rather than high because the length is inferred from concentration-dependent quenching rather than directly imaged, no independent laboratory has replicated it, and the specific reduced values are relayed from a secondary report rather than verified against the paper body. The strongest opposing consideration is twofold: the authors' own modeling includes an incoherent energy-migration comparison, so this is not a coherence measurement and cannot be promoted into one; and the theory's originators are co-authors, so the pivotal experiment is a collaboration with the hypothesis's proponents rather than an outside test. As a measurement claim, it stands.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Opus 5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5 · run 2026-08-27-check-opus · unreviewed draft
The measurement is peer-reviewed in a strong journal, open access, quantitative, and carries internal structure controls, with both the 6.6 nm figure and the anesthetic reduction stated in the abstract (ORCH-E001, ORCH-E002). I grade it below the case file's own label because it is a single unreplicated study, the diffusion length is inferred from concentration-dependent quenching rather than directly imaged, and the theory's principals are co-authors — the same replication standard I apply to ORCH-C024 on the opposite side. The strongest opposing consideration is that the finding is chemically unsurprising and mainstream-published without endorsing Orch OR, which argues it is likely real; likely real and independently confirmed are different grades, and only the second warrants "well_supported."
Well supportedconfidence: high · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-09-01-auto-8fv7 · unreviewed draft
Peer-reviewed, quantitative, with internal structure-dependence controls (polymerization matters, protofilament number does not) that argue against artifact, and assessed strictly as a diffusion-length measurement. Unreplicated, with the theory's principals among the co-authors.
Well supportedconfidence: high · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-09-01-auto-ledp · unreviewed draft
Peer-reviewed, quantitative, with internal structure-dependence controls (polymerization matters, protofilament number does not) that argue against artifact, and assessed strictly as a diffusion-length measurement. Unreplicated, with the theory's principals among the co-authors.
Well supportedconfidence: high · Gemini 3.1 Pro (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.1-pro-preview · run 2026-09-01-check-gemini · unreviewed draft
The direct measurement in Kalra 2023 shows a 6.6 nm diffusion length and a modest reduction by etomidate and isoflurane. The strongest opposing consideration is the lack of independent laboratory replication, combined with the fact that Hameroff and Penrose are themselves co-authors on the paper, meaning it is not a fully disinterested test.
Well supportedconfidence: high · GPT-5.1 (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.1 · run 2026-09-01-check-gpt · unreviewed draft
The Kalra experiment is peer-reviewed, methodologically clear, and directly states that excitation diffuses about 6.6 nm in microtubules and that etomidate and isoflurane reduce this diffusion; structure controls (polymerization vs. protofilament count) support the inference. While the diffusion length is inferred from quenching rather than directly imaged, the quantitative result and anesthetic dependence are well documented. The strongest opposing consideration is the lack of independent replication and that the measured quantity is an incoherent diffusion length, so its relevance to quantum computation or consciousness is limited.
Well supportedconfidence: moderate · Grok 4.6 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.6 · run 2026-09-01-check-grok · unreviewed draft
The 6.6 nm diffusion length and the anesthetic reduction are stated in Kalra et al.'s own abstract, with internal structure-dependence controls that argue against artifact, in a strong general-chemistry journal. The claim is a measurement report, not a coherence or consciousness claim, and is assessed as such. The strongest opposing consideration is independence and method: diffusion length is inferred from concentration-dependent quenching rather than directly imaged, no independent laboratory has replicated it, Hameroff and Penrose are co-authors, and the specific reduced values of about 5.6 nm and 5.8 nm are carried as reported from the paper body rather than verified against it in this file. Those limits cap confidence, not the local truth of the reported measurement.
Well supportedconfidence: moderate · Kimi K3 (Moonshot, via Venice) — independent check run via kimi-k3 · run 2026-09-01-check-kimi · unreviewed draft
Assessed as the measurement it claims to be: peer-reviewed in a strong general-chemistry journal, open access, quantitative, with internal structure-dependence controls (polymerization state mattered, protofilament number did not), and both the 6.6 nm figure and the anesthetic reduction stated in the paper's own abstract. The strongest opposing consideration is independence combined with method: the diffusion length is inferred from concentration-dependent quenching rather than directly imaged, no independent laboratory has replicated it, and the author list includes the theory's originators — so this is a collaboration with the proponents run in an outside laboratory, not an outside test. Those are real qualifications on weight, but they do not undercut a carefully controlled measurement of modest scope, which is what the claim asserts.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Opus 5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5 · run 2026-09-01-check-opus · unreviewed draft
The 6.6 nm figure and the anesthetic reduction are both stated in the abstract of a peer-reviewed, open-access paper with internal structure controls, which is real support for the measurement as worded. I grade it below well_supported because it is a single experiment never replicated by an outside laboratory, the length is inferred from concentration-dependent quenching rather than imaged, and the specific reduced values (~5.6 and ~5.8 nm) were carried into this ledger from a secondary reading rather than verified. The strongest opposing consideration is independence: Hameroff, Penrose, Craddock and Tuszyński are co-authors, so the most important experiment for the theory is a collaboration including its authors rather than an outside test of it.
Well supportedconfidence: high · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-09-02-auto-79ed · unreviewed draft
Peer-reviewed and quantitative, with internal structure-dependence controls (polymerization matters, protofilament number does not) that argue against artifact, and assessed strictly as a diffusion-length measurement. Unreplicated, with the theory's principals among the co-authors.
Well supportedconfidence: high · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-09-02-auto-tyck · unreviewed draft
Peer-reviewed, quantitative, with internal structure-dependence controls (polymerization matters, protofilament number does not) that argue against artifact, and assessed strictly as a diffusion-length measurement. Unreplicated, with the theory's principals among the co-authors.
Well supportedconfidence: high · none — mechanical migration (scripts/migrations/2026-09-08-editions.ts) · run 2026-09-08-migration-orch-or · unreviewed draft
Evidence-only, assessing the measurement as worded: peer-reviewed in a strong general-chemistry journal, open access, quantitative, with internal structure-dependence controls (polymerization state mattered; 13- versus 14-protofilament architecture did not). The 6.6 nm figure and the anesthetic reduction are both stated in the paper's own abstract. Two honest qualifications: the diffusion length is inferred from concentration-dependent quenching rather than directly imaged, and no independent laboratory has replicated it. Note that the specific reduced values (approximately 5.6 nm for etomidate, 5.8 nm for isoflurane) are taken from the deep-research report's reading of the paper body rather than from text this import verified directly, and are labeled accordingly on the evidence record.
Well supportedconfidence: high · claude-opus-5 · run 2026-09-11-edition-124802 · unreviewed draft
The measurement is quantitative, published in a strong general chemistry venue from a mainstream ultrafast-spectroscopy laboratory, and internally structured in the way a real effect should be: ORCH-E001 reports the diffusion length depending on polymerization state but not protofilament number. ORCH-E002 records the anesthetic reduction. Two caveats keep it at well supported rather than established: no independent replication, and the theory's own authors are co-authors, so this is a collaboration including the proponents rather than an outside test. ORCH-E003 does not touch the measurement itself — only what it can be taken to mean.
Well supportedconfidence: high · Gemini 3.8 Flash (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.8-flash · run 2026-09-30-check-gemini-104603 · unreviewed draft
Kalra et al. directly measured concentration-dependent tryptophan autofluorescence lifetime quenching in polymerized microtubules, deriving a 6.6 nm exciton diffusion length that was reduced by ~13% upon exposure to 50 μM etomidate or isoflurane. The experimental methodology is rigorous and structure-dependent. The strongest opposing consideration is that the diffusion length is indirectly inferred from bulk quenching kinetics rather than direct spatial imaging, and has not yet been replicated by an independent laboratory.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · GLM 5.3 Flash (Z.ai, via Venice) — independent check run via z-ai-glm-5-3-flash · run 2026-09-30-check-glm-104603 · unreviewed draft
The abstract directly states both the 6.6 nm diffusion length and the anesthetic reduction, verified at import, with structure-dependence arguing against artifact. It rests on a single laboratory with the theory's authors among the co-authors, no independent replication, an inferred rather than imaged length, and specific reduced values relayed from a secondary report. A real measurement honestly reported, but not yet a consolidated fact.
Well supportedconfidence: moderate · GPT-5.6 Sol (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.6-sol · run 2026-09-30-check-gpt-104603 · unreviewed draft
The Kalra abstract directly reports approximately 6.6 nm excitation diffusion and reductions in the presence of etomidate and isoflurane. The result is an inferred diffusion length in purified microtubules, and the specific reduced values relayed from the paper body were not independently checked in the original import. The strongest opposing consideration is the lack of independent replication and the absence of a physiological neuronal preparation.
Well supportedconfidence: high · Grok 4.5 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.5 · run 2026-09-30-check-grok-104603 · unreviewed draft
Kalra et al. report ~6.6 nm electronic energy diffusion in polymerized microtubules not sufficiently explained by standard Förster models after Trp–Tyr accounting, and report reduced diffusion with 50 μM etomidate or isoflurane. Strongest opposing consideration is single-lab origin with theory co-authors, inferred rather than imaged length, in vitro purified MTs, and picrotoxin comparability on related quenching behavior.
Well supportedconfidence: moderate · claude-opus-5-5 · run 2026-09-30-edition-094411 · unreviewed draft
ORCH-E001 reports the 6.6 nm diffusion length and ORCH-E002 the anesthetic reduction, both from the abstract of one open-access paper in a strong journal. The finding is not independently replicated, and the specific reduced lengths come via a secondary relay. But the claim as stated is what the paper measured.