Append-only AI overlay records; the canon claim file is never mutated.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: low · anthropic/claude-fable-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-09-01-auto-5ld8 · unreviewed draft
Rests entirely on one unreviewed, non-blinded manuscript (TRN-E022) whose registration step has not been independently checked. This verdict hangs on a single thread and must be said to.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: low · anthropic/claude-fable-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-09-01-auto-7g41 · unreviewed draft
Rests entirely on one unreviewed, non-blinded manuscript (TRN-E022) whose registration step is unchecked; this verdict hangs on that single thread and is flagged as such. No new material alters that.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: low · anthropic/claude-fable-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-09-01-auto-ehrl · unreviewed draft
Rests entirely on one unreviewed, non-blinded manuscript (TRN-E022) whose registration analysis has not been independently checked. This verdict hangs on that single thread and must be flagged as such until review or independent reinspection.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: low · anthropic/claude-fable-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-09-01-auto-i52f · unreviewed draft
Rests entirely on a single unreviewed, non-blinded manuscript (TRN-E022) whose registration step has not been independently checked. This verdict hangs on one thread and must be said to.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: low · anthropic/claude-fable-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-09-01-auto-k2f0 · unreviewed draft
Rests on a single unreviewed, non-blinded manuscript (TRN-E022) whose registration step has not been independently checked; this verdict hangs on that one record and must be flagged as one thread.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: low · anthropic/claude-fable-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-09-01-auto-m29a · unreviewed draft
Rests entirely on one unreviewed, non-blinded manuscript (TRN-E022) whose registration analysis has not been independently checked. This verdict hangs on that single thread and would collapse to untested without it.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: low · anthropic/claude-fable-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-09-01-auto-mklk · unreviewed draft
Rests on a single unreviewed, non-blinded manuscript (TRN-E022) whose registration step has not been independently checked. This verdict hangs on that one thread and must be said to; pivotal if it survives review.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: low · anthropic/claude-fable-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-09-01-auto-sffb · unreviewed draft
Rests on a single unreviewed, non-blinded manuscript (TRN-E022) whose registration analysis has not been independently checked; this verdict hangs on that one record. Credible and pivotal if it survives review, but currently one thread.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Gemini 3.1 Pro (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.1-pro-preview · run 2026-09-01-check-gemini · unreviewed draft
Microscopy of the Caltech plate registers all nine sources on the original glass, effectively ruling out a downstream copying or scanning artifact for this specific event. It is provisional solely due to provenance: the manuscript is an unreviewed preprint, the examination was unblinded, and it was conducted by the proponent team without outside replication.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · GPT-5.1 (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.1 · run 2026-09-01-check-gpt · unreviewed draft
TRN-E022 reports that all nine 1950 sources are present on the original telescope negative, with registration done via field stars, and this is consistent with the expectation that real exposure- or emulsion-level features propagate into all descendants. There is no contrary inspection in the record, and the report is internally candid about limitations, which lends some credence. However, it remains an unblinded, proponent-team microscopy study in preprint form, without independent replication or a formal blind protocol, so registration errors or confirmation bias cannot yet be excluded. The strongest opposing consideration is precisely this lack of independent, blinded verification of the claimed coincidences.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: low · Grok 4.6 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.6 · run 2026-09-01-check-grok · unreviewed draft
A single microscopy run, registered to the digitization with field stars, reports all nine 1950 sources on the original emulsion at published positions. That result, if it survives, is highly diagnostic: it eliminates the shared-copy pathway for the canonical event. It is carried as provisional because the manuscript is an unreviewed preprint, the examination was not blind, and no independent examiner has repeated the registration. The strongest opposing consideration is exactly that provenance: a registration error or selection of ambiguous emulsion features at expected positions would produce the same reported result.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Kimi K3 (Moonshot, via Venice) — independent check run via kimi-k3 · run 2026-09-01-check-kimi · unreviewed draft
A single examination, reported in a non-peer-reviewed preprint by the hypothesis's proponents, without blinding and without independent repetition: every provenance discount applies, and the case's preregistered blind protocol (TRN-R001) remains unexecuted. Against that, the observation is direct microscopy registered to field-star fiducials, and the manuscript is candid against interest — it quotes its own microscopist's defect-leaning assessment and states the limits of the method (TRN-E024). The strongest opposing consideration is that a registration error, or selection of ambiguous emulsion features at expected positions, would produce exactly the reported result; this stays provisional until an outside, blinded repetition ratifies or breaks it.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Opus 5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5 · run 2026-09-01-check-opus · unreviewed draft
TRN-E022 is a single unblinded examination by the proponents' own group, reported in a preprint whose load-bearing step — registration of the digitization to the physical emulsion using field stars — has not been independently checked; that is exactly the setting in which ambiguous emulsion features at expected positions get selected. What raises this above a bare proponent report is TRN-E024: an outside microscopist, directed to the objects by Hambly, examined the same Caltech plate and also found features there, disputing their interpretation rather than their presence. The strongest opposing consideration is that a registration error or selection effect would produce the identical reported result, and the blind multi-analyst protocol (TRN-R001) has not been carried out; the claim's specificity ("all nine") also makes it fragile — one miss would contaminate the flagship event.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: low · anthropic/claude-fable-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-09-02-auto-1gjc · unreviewed draft
Rests on a single unreviewed, non-blinded manuscript (TRN-E022) whose registration analysis has not been independently checked; this verdict hangs on that one record and would collapse without it.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: low · anthropic/claude-fable-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-09-02-auto-1zex · unreviewed draft
Rests entirely on one unreviewed, non-blinded manuscript (TRN-E022) whose registration step has not been independently checked. This verdict hangs on a single thread and must say so.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: low · none — mechanical migration (scripts/migrations/2026-09-08-editions.ts) · run 2026-09-08-migration-transients · unreviewed draft
Reported by a single examination (TRN-E022): microscopy of the original plate at the Caltech archive, registered to the digitization with field stars as fiducials, finding all nine at their published positions. Carried at reported-not-established weight — the manuscript is a preprint (arXiv:2608.26371, posted 2026-08-26), not yet peer reviewed; the examination was performed by the proponent team, it was not blind, and no independent examiner has repeated the registration.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Gemini 3.8 Flash (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.8-flash · run 2026-09-10-check-gemini-183351 · unreviewed draft
Microscopic examination of the original 12 April 1950 red negative at Caltech located all nine point-like features in the physical emulsion at their published coordinates, registered using surrounding stars. This directly rules out downstream copying, storage, or scanning artifacts as the source of these specific marks. The strongest opposing consideration is that this inspection is currently reported in an unreviewed preprint from the proponent group and was performed without independent, double-blind verification.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · GLM 5.3 Flash (Z.ai, via Venice) — independent check run via z-ai-glm-5-3-flash · run 2026-09-10-check-glm-183351 · unreviewed draft
TRN-E022 reports all nine sources present on the original Caltech emulsion at their published positions via star-fiducial registration, which if confirmed settles the lowest provenance rung decisively. But the record is a preprint, the examination was not blinded, the registration was performed by the proponents' group, and no outsider has repeated it. Strongest opposing consideration: the same manuscript's footnote records the microscopist attributing the features to emulsion defects, and the registration analysis is the load-bearing, unreviewed step.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · GPT-5.6 Sol (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.6-sol · run 2026-09-10-check-gpt-183351 · unreviewed draft
TRN-E022 directly reports microscopy and field-star registration finding all nine features on the original April 1950 negative at their published positions. This is the exact discriminating observation required by the claim and excludes defects introduced solely during copying or scanning. The strongest opposing consideration is that the registration was unblinded, performed by the reporting group, and has not yet been independently repeated, making the result dependent on one moderate- strength record.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Grok 4.5 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.5 · run 2026-09-10-check-grok-183351 · unreviewed draft
The Yang & Villarroel manuscript reports microscopy of the Caltech original April 1950 glass with field-star registration finding all nine catalogued objects on the physical emulsion. It is a preprint, unblinded, and not yet externally repeated, so the verdict remains provisional pending review and adversarial re-inspection. Strongest opposing consideration: registration or identification error in an unreplicated author-group examination could still place copy-stage or handling marks on the wrong generation.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Opus 5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5 · run 2026-09-10-check-opus-183351 · unreviewed draft
TRN-E022 reports all nine catalogued objects present on the physical emulsion of the original April 1950 glass at their published positions, registered against the digitization using field stars. This is the first examination of original material in the dispute and is the single most consequential positive record in the file. It is held below "well_supported" because the load-bearing registration step is unreviewed, unblinded, performed by the proponents' group, and not yet repeatable by outsiders; TRN-R001 explicitly leaves outside verification open. The opposing consideration is that the same manuscript's microscopist read the features as emulsion defects on the original — consistent with this claim being true while carrying none of the meaning proponents want.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · claude-fable-5-1 · run 2026-09-10-edition-183348 · unreviewed draft
One record, TRN-E022 (moderate): microscopy of the Caltech original registered against the digitization finds all nine present at their positions. It is a preprint, not peer reviewed, not blinded, and the registration has not been repeated outside the group; the arXiv text was re-checked against the quoted passages. The microscopist's presence is the closest thing to an outside eye and concerns morphology, not presence.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · claude-fable-5-1 · run 2026-09-17-edition-142649 · unreviewed draft
One moderate record (TRN-E022): registration of the Caltech original against the digitization finds all nine at their positions. Unreviewed, not blinded, performed by the proponents' group, though the microscopist was directed to the objects by Hambly. No contradicting record.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Gemini 3.8 Flash (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.8-flash · run 2026-09-30-check-gemini-110238 · unreviewed draft
Direct microscopy of the original glass negative at the Caltech archive by Yang and Villarroel confirmed that all nine April 1950 point sources exist as physical features in the original emulsion. This finding successfully rules out downstream copying and digitization artifacts for this event, though the report remains an unreviewed preprint. Strongest opposing consideration: The inspection was conducted without independent blinding, and external peer-reviewed replication of the registration analysis has not yet been published.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: low · GLM 5.3 Flash (Z.ai, via Venice) — independent check run via z-ai-glm-5-3-flash · run 2026-09-30-check-glm-110238 · unreviewed draft
TRN-E022 reports all nine sources on the original Caltech emulsion at published positions, with registration against field-star fiducials, and the inspection was directed to the objects by the copy-defect argument's own author — notable against-interest credibility. It remains a single, unreviewed, unblinded manuscript whose registration analysis is the load-bearing step and has not been independently checked. Strongest opposing consideration: the result is currently unrepeatable by outsiders and the microscopist's own defect-leaning reading sits in the same document.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · GPT-5.6 Sol (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.6-sol · run 2026-09-30-check-gpt-110238 · unreviewed draft
TRN-E022 reports direct microscopy and astrometric registration of all nine features on the original April 1950 telescope negative at the published positions. That is direct evidence for the claim and rules out a purely downstream copying or scanning origin if the registration is correct. The strongest opposing consideration is that the examination was not blinded, remains unreviewed, and has not been independently repeated on publicly accessible imagery.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Grok 4.5 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.5 · run 2026-09-30-check-grok-110238 · unreviewed draft
The Yang & Villarroel microscopy preprint reports all nine 1950 sources present on the original Caltech glass negative after registration to field stars (E022). The document is unreviewed, the inspection unblinded, and the 1952 triple checked only on copy material. Strongest opposing consideration is the preprint status and lack of outside repetition of the registration.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Opus 5.5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5-5 · run 2026-09-30-check-opus-110238 · unreviewed draft
One preprint reports all nine marks on the original Caltech negative, registered to the digitization using field stars (E022). Its footnote records a microscopist who was directed to the positions by Hambly and found features there, which he attributed to defects (E024). Strongest opposing consideration: the registration is the load-bearing step. The proponent group did it; it was unblinded, is unreviewed, and has not been repeated by outsiders (TRN-R001).
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · claude-opus-5-5 · run 2026-09-30-edition-095721 · unreviewed draft
One record, TRN-E022, supports it. Microscopy of the Caltech original, registered against the digitization, finds all nine at their positions. The text was read in full and checked verbatim, but it is an unreviewed preprint. The examination was unblinded, the group includes the hypothesis's chief proponent, and nobody outside has repeated the registration. The microscopist was directed to the objects by the copy-defect argument's author, which gives the location some cross-camp standing.