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The Aeon Before Ours · claim CCC-C519 · Mechanism rung · Erebons and forward predictions

For Planck-mass dark-matter particles with lifetime exceeding the Hubble time decaying to two gravitons, the direct gravitational-wave background at 25 Hz is Ω_GW < 2 × 10⁻¹⁰³, about 95 orders of magnitude below the LIGO O1+O2 limit (Allen 2020).

A calculation shows that the gravitational-wave hum from such decays would be vastly too faint for LIGO to hear.

AI-extractedorigin: report 2026-09-10-report-ccc-191230

credibility — is the claim itself true?

Well supported

⚠ grades the status of a mathematical question — not empirical support

Allen's refereed calculation gives Ω_GW(25 Hz) < 2 × 10⁻¹⁰³ for Planck-mass particles with lifetimes beyond the Hubble time decaying to two gravitons, about 95 orders of magnitude below the LIGO O1+O2 limit (CCC-E042). Held at well supported against three seats that sought established. It is a single calculation, conditional on its model, and has not been independently reproduced.

diagnosticity — how much does it decide the thesis?

moderate

Closes the detector route under the emission Penrose described; says nothing about erebons as dark matter.

Evidence

Supports (1)

Supports· moderateCCC-E042

Allen 2020 §III: the direct graviton background from Planck-mass erebon decay is ~95 orders of magnitude below LIGO's limit

what the source states
The source states that, for erebons decaying to two gravitons, 'since the lifetime τ must be greater than the Hubble time, we find Ω_GW(25 Hz) < 2 × 10⁻¹⁰³. Comparing with the current observational limit in Sec. II shows that this is below detectability in LIGO by about 95 orders of magnitude', the limit being the O1+O2 bound Ω₀ < 4 × 10⁻⁸.
what we infer
Directly addresses the mechanism Penrose invoked (decay into gravitational radiation) under a homogeneous cosmological population; the result concerns a stochastic background, not the impulsive individual events Penrose describes, so it is undermining rather than decisive.
limitations
  • Stochastic-background calculation; does not model an individual nearby impulsive event.
  • Assumes homogeneous cosmological dark matter; Penrose stresses galactic concentrations ~100× denser.
  • Second reader (claude-sonnet-5, 2026-09-10, run 2026-09-10-verify-ccc-192550, verify-v5) found the passage bears on CCC-C519 and not on CCC-C505; the link dropped at intake: The quoted passage matches the source exactly and is correctly located in §III on p.2, and it fairly restates the direct-spectrum result of Eq.(5) without overreach. However, this passage concerns only the 'direct' graviton spectrum, a distinct and much smaller contribution than the 'memory effect' (indirect) mechanism discussed in §IV that actually bears on Penrose's claim about correlated impulsive LIGO noise (CCC-C505); the record's link to C505 is unsupported by this locator, so only C519 is retained. For C519 the passage does not 'undermine' anything—it is the direct source of the very figures the claim states—so the correct direction is 'supports' rather than 'undermines'.
  • Direction set to "supports" (from "undermines") by the second reader (claude-sonnet-5, 2026-09-10, run 2026-09-10-verify-ccc-192550, verify-v5) at intake: The quoted passage matches the source exactly and is correctly located in §III on p.2, and it fairly restates the direct-spectrum result of Eq.(5) without overreach. However, this passage concerns only the 'direct' graviton spectrum, a distinct and much smaller contribution than the 'memory effect' (indirect) mechanism discussed in §IV that actually bears on Penrose's claim about correlated impulsive LIGO noise (CCC-C505); the record's link to C505 is unsupported by this locator, so only C519 is retained. For C519 the passage does not 'undermine' anything—it is the direct source of the very figures the claim states—so the correct direction is 'supports' rather than 'undermines'.
Bruce Allen (2020)AI-verified citation

strongest unresolved objection

It assumes a homogeneous population and isotropic decay; local concentrations and anisotropic emission are not modelled.

what would change our mind

  • A decay model with anisotropic emission that yields detectable strain

Assessment history

Append-only AI overlay records; the canon claim file is never mutated.

Establishedconfidence: high · Gemini 3.8 Flash (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.8-flash · run 2026-09-10-check-gemini-200608 · unreviewed draft

Allen (2020) formally computed the stochastic gravitational-wave background from decaying Planck-mass dark matter, proving that Ω_GW(25 Hz) < 2 × 10⁻¹⁰³ for particles with lifetimes exceeding the Hubble time. This confirms that the direct background falls approximately 95 orders of magnitude below the LIGO O1+O2 observational threshold. Strongest opposing consideration: The mathematical derivation assumes an isotropic, homogeneous cosmological dark-matter background and does not model extreme local overdensities or non-spherical impulsive bursts.

Establishedconfidence: high · GLM 5.3 Flash (Z.ai, via Venice) — independent check run via z-ai-glm-5-3-flash · run 2026-09-10-check-glm-200608 · unreviewed draft

The figure is a direct mathematical result from Allen 2020, a refereed Phys. Rev. Research paper explicitly motivated by Penrose's conjecture, verified against the retrieved text: for Planck-mass particles with lifetime exceeding the Hubble time decaying to two gravitons, Ω_GW(25 Hz) < 2 × 10⁻¹⁰³, ~95 orders below the O1+O2 limit. The strongest opposing consideration is scope: it is a homogeneous-population stochastic-background calculation that does not model a single nearby impulsive event, so it constrains the channel Penrose described without closing every variant of it.

Well supportedconfidence: moderate · GPT-5.6 Sol (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.6-sol · run 2026-09-10-check-gpt-200608 · unreviewed draft

CCC-E042 directly reports the conditional calculation Ω_GW(25 Hz) below 2 × 10⁻¹⁰³ for Planck-mass particles with super-Hubble lifetimes decaying into two gravitons, together with the stated 95-order gap from the O1+O2 limit. The claim is correctly conditional on that model and should not be generalized to all erebon emission mechanisms. The strongest opposing consideration is that the calculation concerns a homogeneous stochastic background, not the strain from an individual nearby nonspherical impulsive decay.

Establishedconfidence: high · Grok 4.5 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.5 · run 2026-09-10-check-grok-200608 · unreviewed draft

Allen 2020 derives Ω_GW(25 Hz) < 2 × 10⁻¹⁰³ for Planck-mass particles with lifetime exceeding the Hubble time decaying to two gravitons, approximately 95 orders below the LIGO O1+O2 stochastic limit; the claim simply restates that calculation. Strongest opposing consideration is that the result assumes a homogeneous cosmological population and a two-massless-particle channel, so a radically different emission geometry could in principle change the number, but no such alternative is calculated in the record.

Well supportedconfidence: moderate · Opus 5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5 · run 2026-09-10-check-opus-200608 · unreviewed draft

The numbers come directly from Allen's refereed Rapid Communication: for erebons decaying to two gravitons with lifetime exceeding the Hubble time, Ω_GW(25 Hz) < 2 × 10⁻¹⁰³, about 95 orders of magnitude below the O1+O2 bound of 4 × 10⁻⁸ (CCC-E042). The calculation is explicit, published, and the only quantitative treatment of the erebon signature in the ledger. Strongest opposing consideration: it is a single unreplicated calculation of a stochastic background under a homogeneous cosmological population, whereas Penrose emphasizes galactic concentrations and impulsive individual events — a caveat Allen's own §IV partly addresses by showing the larger memory-effect background still misses detectability by 35 orders of magnitude.

Well supportedconfidence: moderate · claude-fable-5-1 · run 2026-09-10-edition-200606 · unreviewed draft

Directly from Allen 2020 §III, Eq. (5), a CC-BY refereed Rapid Communication (CCC-E042); the limit compared is the LIGO O1+O2 bound. Single calculation, narrow model by construction (homogeneous population, two-graviton decay).

Establishedconfidence: high · Gemini 3.8 Flash (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.8-flash · run 2026-09-21-check-gemini-130059 · unreviewed draft

Bruce Allen (2020, Phys. Rev. Research) rigorously calculated that the direct gravitational wave background at 25 Hz from Planck-mass dark matter particles decaying to two gravitons satisfies Ω_GW < 2 × 10⁻¹⁰³, which is roughly 95 orders of magnitude below the LIGO O1+O2 observational threshold. The claim directly quotes this mathematical derivation. The strongest opposing consideration is that Allen's direct-spectrum model assumes a homogeneous cosmological distribution rather than dense local dark matter clustering or non-spherical impulsive waveforms.

Well supportedconfidence: high · GLM 5.3 Flash (Z.ai, via Venice) — independent check run via z-ai-glm-5-3-flash · run 2026-09-21-check-glm-130059 · unreviewed draft

The record is the direct source of the exact figures: a refereed Physical Review Research Rapid Communication by Bruce Allen, deriving Ω_GW(25 Hz) < 2 × 10⁻¹⁰³ for Planck-mass erebons decaying to two gravitons, about 95 orders below the O1+O2 limit. The strongest opposing consideration is scope: the calculation assumes a homogeneous cosmological population and a two-graviton channel, so it binds the stochastic background, not every conceivable impulsive emission geometry — which is precisely the gap CCC-R008 targets.

Establishedconfidence: moderate · GPT-5.6 Sol (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.6-sol · run 2026-09-21-check-gpt-130059 · unreviewed draft

CCC-E042 directly supplies the conditional calculation Ω_GW(25 Hz) below 2 × 10⁻¹⁰³ and the comparison placing it about 95 orders of magnitude below the O1+O2 limit. The claim is narrowly framed around Planck-mass particles with lifetimes exceeding the Hubble time decaying to two gravitons, matching the calculation's stated setup. The strongest opposing consideration is limited scope rather than a contrary result: the calculation treats a homogeneous stochastic background and does not model a nearby individual impulse or every possible decay channel.

Establishedconfidence: high · Grok 4.5 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.5 · run 2026-09-21-check-grok-130059 · unreviewed draft

Allen 2020 derives, for Planck-mass particles decaying to two gravitons with lifetime longer than the Hubble time, a direct stochastic background Ω_GW(25 Hz) < 2 × 10^{-103}, approximately 95 orders of magnitude below the LIGO O1+O2 limit. The numerical claim is taken directly from the published calculation. The strongest opposing consideration is that the result assumes a homogeneous cosmological population and an isotropic two-body decay; galactic over-densities or anisotropic emission could in principle raise the local rate, though the paper already notes the memory-effect channel still misses by 35 orders.

Well supportedconfidence: moderate · Opus 5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5 · run 2026-09-21-check-opus-130059 · unreviewed draft

The figures are quoted directly from the published Rapid Communication: for erebons decaying to two gravitons with lifetime exceeding the Hubble time, Ω_GW(25 Hz) < 2 × 10⁻¹⁰³, about 95 orders of magnitude below the O1+O2 limit of 4 × 10⁻⁸ (CCC-E042). It is a transparent calculation, motivated explicitly by Penrose's proposal, and the only published quantitative treatment on record. Strongest opposing consideration: it is a single unreplicated calculation in a narrow model — homogeneous cosmological population, stochastic background, isotropic decay — whereas Penrose stresses galactic concentrations and individual impulsive events; the record's own limitations say so. The claim as stated is confined to that model and survives; extending it to rule out all erebon signatures would not.

Establishedconfidence: high · Gemini 3.8 Flash (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.8-flash · run 2026-09-30-check-gemini-103112 · unreviewed draft

Allen (2020, §III) rigorously derived that for Planck-mass dark matter decaying to two gravitons with a lifetime greater than the Hubble time, the direct background at 25 Hz satisfies Ω_GW < 2 × 10⁻¹⁰³, which is roughly 95 orders of magnitude below the LIGO O1+O2 observational bound. The claim states Allen's exact mathematical result verbatim. The strongest opposing consideration is that Allen's calculation evaluates a diffuse, homogeneous cosmological background rather than coherent, highly non-spherical localized bursts.

Well supportedconfidence: high · GLM 5.3 Flash (Z.ai, via Venice) — independent check run via z-ai-glm-5-3-flash · run 2026-09-30-check-glm-103112 · unreviewed draft

CCC-E042 is the direct source of the exact figures, in a refereed Physical Review Research Rapid Communication by a leading gravitational-wave specialist, and no record on the ledger contradicts the calculation. The strongest opposing consideration is the model's assumptions — a homogeneous cosmological population and two-graviton decay — where Penrose stresses galactic concentrations ~100× denser; but for a stochastic-background upper bound the homogeneous assumption is the conservative direction, and the claim as stated is conditioned on precisely those assumptions.

Establishedconfidence: high · GPT-5.6 Sol (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.6-sol · run 2026-09-30-check-gpt-103112 · unreviewed draft

CCC-E042 directly supplies the stated assumptions and result: Ω_GW at 25 Hz is below 2 × 10⁻¹⁰³ for the direct two-graviton background, approximately 95 orders below the cited O1+O2 limit. The claim accurately reports that calculation rather than generalizing it to all erebon signatures. The strongest opposing consideration is its narrow scope: it assumes a homogeneous cosmological population and concerns a stochastic direct background, not an individual nearby impulsive event.

Establishedconfidence: high · Grok 4.5 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.5 · run 2026-09-30-check-grok-103112 · unreviewed draft

Allen 2020 derives Ω_GW(25 Hz) < 2 × 10⁻¹⁰³ for Planck-mass particles decaying to two gravitons with lifetime exceeding the Hubble time—approximately 95 orders below the LIGO O1+O2 limit. The calculation is the sole quantitative result on the topic and matches the claim’s figures exactly. The strongest opposing consideration is that the result assumes a homogeneous cosmological population and a two-body massless decay; a highly clustered or non-spherical channel could alter the single-event strain, but no such channel is calculated in the ledger.

Well supportedconfidence: high · Opus 5.5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5-5 · run 2026-09-30-check-opus-103112 · unreviewed draft

The figure is verbatim from Allen's refereed calculation (E042): for decay to two gravitons with lifetime exceeding the Hubble time, Ω_GW(25 Hz) < 2 × 10⁻¹⁰³, against the O1+O2 limit of 4 × 10⁻⁸ — a ratio of about 10⁹⁵, consistent with the stated 95 orders. The result is physically unsurprising, since the decay products of a Planck-mass particle emerge near the Planck frequency, vastly above LIGO's band, leaving only a negligible low-frequency tail (a background-physics sanity check, not ledger evidence). Strongest opposing consideration: it is a single calculation not independently re-derived on the ledger, and its homogeneous stochastic-background model does not describe individual impulsive decays in a dense galactic halo — which limits its reach against CCC-C505, not the conditional claim as stated.

Well supportedconfidence: high · claude-opus-5-5 · run 2026-09-30-edition-093242 · unreviewed draft

Allen's refereed calculation gives Ω_GW(25 Hz) < 2 × 10⁻¹⁰³ for Planck-mass particles with lifetimes beyond the Hubble time decaying to two gravitons, about 95 orders of magnitude below the LIGO O1+O2 limit (CCC-E042). Held at well supported against three seats that sought established. It is a single calculation, conditional on its model, and has not been independently reproduced.