Append-only AI overlay records; the canon claim file is never mutated.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Claude Fable 5 (Cursor) · run orch-or-2026-08-22-fable-1 · unreviewed draft
Measured quantum-yield trend matches the collective-state model, from a substantially independent group. Held at provisional because the paper is predominantly theoretical with an indirect bulk-fluorescence confirmation. The widely-quoted "tens of seconds" is a radiative lifetime of a modeled dark state, not a coherence time — a distinction routinely lost in secondary discussion.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Gemini 3.1 Pro (Google) · run 2026-08-23-gemini31-1 · unreviewed draft
A partly independent group successfully predicted and measured fluorescence quantum yield increases aligning with a hierarchical superradiance model in microtubules. Support remains provisional because quantum yield is an indirect witness of collective states. Crucially, the theoretical "tens of seconds" figure refers to the radiative lifetime of a dark state, not a decoherence time, which is frequently conflated in secondary literature.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · GPT-5.1 (OpenAI), independent judge run · run 2026-08-23-gpt51-1 · unreviewed draft
Babcock et al. predict, and experimentally observe, increased fluorescence quantum yield with hierarchical tubulin/microtubule organization consistent with collective superradiant states of tryptophan networks. The work is peer-reviewed, and the observed trend across architectures matches the model. However, the study is mainly theoretical; quantum yield is a relatively indirect witness, and other mechanisms could modulate it. The dramatic “tens of seconds” dark-state lifetime is a radiative parameter, not a measured decoherence time. Thus the existence of some collective optical effect in microtubules is reasonably supported, but details of state lifetimes and their biological relevance remain speculative. The key objection is that similar Dicke-type effects are seen in non-neural ordered chromophore systems, so this is not evidence of anything consciousness-specific.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Grok 4.6 (xAI), independent judge run · run 2026-08-23-grok46-1 · unreviewed draft
Babcock et al. predict strongly superradiant states among organized tryptophan networks and report a fluorescence-quantum-yield enhancement matching the model across geometric regimes, persisting with disorder at thermal equilibrium. The group is substantially independent of the Hameroff–Penrose line. Held to provisionally because the paper is predominantly theoretical, quantum yield is an indirect and multi-mechanism witness of collective states, and the arresting “tens of seconds” figure is a modeled radiative lifetime of a dark eigenstate, not a dephasing time. The strongest opposing consideration is that Dicke-type collective emission has been engineered in ordered non-neural scaffolds (for example dye-decorated virus capsids) and is therefore evidence of geometric regularity rather than of a consciousness mechanism.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Kimi K3 (Moonshot, via Venice) — independent check run via kimi-k3 · run 2026-08-23-check-kimi · unreviewed draft
The measured quantum-yield trend matches the collective-state model's prediction across geometric regimes at room temperature, from a group substantially independent of the Hameroff–Penrose line, which strengthens the record. It is held to provisional because the paper is predominantly theoretical with a bulk-fluorescence confirmation, and quantum yield is an indirect witness that several mechanisms can raise. The strongest opposing consideration is the comparison class: Dicke-type collective emission has been engineered in ordered protein scaffolds with no cognitive relevance, suggesting geometric regularity rather than neural specialness does the work — and the arresting "tens of seconds" figure is a modeled radiative lifetime of a dark state, silent on the dephasing time Orch OR actually needs.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Opus 5 (Claude), independent judge run · run 2026-08-23-opus5-1 · unreviewed draft
The measured quantum-yield trend matches the model's prediction across geometric regimes, it is peer-reviewed, and the group is substantially independent of the Hameroff–Penrose line, which strengthens the record. The claim is carefully worded as a directional agreement between measurement and model, and that is what was reported. It stays at provisionally because the paper is predominantly theoretical with a confirming bulk-fluorescence measurement, and quantum yield is an indirect witness — several mechanisms can raise it, so the collective interpretation is model-dependent. The strongest opposing consideration is that Dicke-type collective emission has been engineered in ordered protein scaffolds with nothing to do with cognition, and lost when the scaffold is disordered, which suggests geometric regularity rather than anything neural is doing the work.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-25-auto-6bwy · unreviewed draft
The measured quantum-yield trend matches the collective superradiance model from a substantially independent group (ORCH-E004), but the confirmation is indirect and bulk, and quantum yield can rise by several mechanisms.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-25-auto-jlsi · unreviewed draft
The measured quantum-yield trend matches the collective-state model from a substantially independent group, but the confirmation is indirect and bulk. The widely quoted 'tens of seconds' is a dark-state radiative lifetime, not a coherence time.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-25-auto-scxb · unreviewed draft
The measured quantum-yield trend matches the collective-state prediction from a substantially independent group, but the confirmation is indirect and bulk, and quantum yield has several possible causes. The widely quoted 'tens of seconds' is a dark-state radiative lifetime, not a coherence time.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Gemini 3.1 Pro (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.1-pro-preview · run 2026-08-25-check-gemini · unreviewed draft
A partly independent group successfully predicted and measured that ordered tryptophan networks in microtubules form collective superradiant states, exhibiting enhanced fluorescence quantum yield. The support is provisional because quantum yield is an indirect witness that can be altered by various mechanisms. The strongest caution is interpretive: the "tens of seconds" figure is a modeled radiative lifetime of a dark state, not an environmental decoherence time, and does not fulfill the theory's required coherence duration.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · GPT-5.1 (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.1 · run 2026-08-25-check-gpt · unreviewed draft
Babcock et al. combine a detailed theoretical model of collective tryptophan states with measurements showing increased fluorescence quantum yield as tubulin organization becomes more hierarchical, in the direction predicted by superradiance theory, at room temperature. This supports the statement that quantum yield tracks hierarchy as modeled, though quantum yield is an indirect witness and other mechanisms could contribute. The main caveat is that the experimental side is relatively limited and the striking “tens of seconds” lifetimes are modelled radiative lifetimes, not measured decoherence times, which proponents often blur.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Grok 4.6 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.6 · run 2026-08-25-check-grok · unreviewed draft
A substantially independent group predicted collective superradiant states across large tryptophan networks and measured fluorescence quantum yield increasing with hierarchical organization in the predicted direction, reported as persisting with disorder at room temperature. Quantum yield is an indirect witness and several mechanisms can raise it, which is why this is provisional rather than well supported. The strongest opposing consideration is the recurring misreading of radiative lifetime as coherence time: the paper's "tens of seconds" figure describes how weakly a modeled dark eigenstate couples to the light field, not how long it survives environmental dephasing.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Kimi K3 (Moonshot, via Venice) — independent check run via kimi-k3 · run 2026-08-25-check-kimi · unreviewed draft
Peer-reviewed, from a group substantially independent of the Hameroff–Penrose line, and the measured quantum-yield trend matches the collective-eigenstate model across geometric regimes. It is provisional rather than well supported because the paper is predominantly theoretical with a confirming bulk-fluorescence measurement, and quantum yield is an indirect witness — several mechanisms can raise it. The strongest opposing consideration is that superradiance of this class has been engineered in ordered non-neural protein scaffolds, suggesting geometric regularity rather than neural specialness does the work. The widely quoted "tens of seconds" figure is a modeled radiative lifetime of a dark state — a measure of weak light coupling, not of survival against dephasing — so on the quantity Orch OR needs this paper is silent.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Opus 5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5 · run 2026-08-25-check-opus · unreviewed draft
The claim is narrowly worded — quantum yield rising with hierarchical organization in the direction a collective-superradiance model predicts — and that is what the paper reports, from a group substantially independent of the theory's originators. It is held at "provisionally" because the work is predominantly theoretical with a bulk fluorescence measurement attached, and quantum yield is an indirect witness that several mechanisms can raise. The strongest opposing consideration is the reference class: Dicke-type collective emission has been engineered in ordered protein scaffolds with no cognitive relevance and disappears when the scaffold is disordered, suggesting geometric regularity rather than anything neural is doing the work — and no control series in comparably ordered non-neural assemblies has been run to show microtubules are quantitatively special.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-26-auto-c256 · unreviewed draft
The measured quantum-yield trend matches the collective-state prediction from a substantially independent group, but the confirmation is bulk and indirect and quantum yield has several possible causes. The widely quoted 'tens of seconds' is a dark-state radiative lifetime, not a decoherence time.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-27-auto-mxfv · unreviewed draft
The measured quantum-yield trend matches the collective-state prediction from a substantially independent group, but the confirmation is bulk and indirect and quantum yield has several possible causes. The widely quoted 'tens of seconds' is a dark-state radiative lifetime, not a decoherence time.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Gemini 3.1 Pro (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.1-pro-preview · run 2026-08-27-check-gemini · unreviewed draft
Babcock et al. successfully modeled and measured fluorescence quantum yield increasing with hierarchical organization in microtubule architectures (ORCH-E004). The strongest opposing consideration is that the quoted "tens of seconds" applies only to the radiative lifetime of a dark state, which is distinct from the environmental decoherence time required by the hypothesis.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · GPT-5.1 (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.1 · run 2026-08-27-check-gpt · unreviewed draft
Babcock et al. (E004) combine theoretical modelling of collective tryptophan superradiant states with bulk fluorescence measurements showing quantum yield increasing with hierarchical microtubule organisation in the predicted direction and at room temperature, supporting the claim that QY enhancements follow the collective-state model. The experimental component is less extensive than the theory and quantum yield is an indirect proxy that can increase via multiple mechanisms, so some interpretive uncertainty remains. The strongest opposing consideration is that similar Dicke-type effects have been engineered in other ordered protein/dye lattices, suggesting that this behaviour reflects generic geometric order rather than a microtubule- specific or consciousness-relevant mechanism.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Grok 4.6 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.6 · run 2026-08-27-check-grok · unreviewed draft
A substantially independent group reports that a collective-superradiance model of organized tryptophan networks predicts quantum-yield enhancement, and bulk fluorescence measurements match the predicted trend across geometric regimes, including with disorder and at room temperature. The paper is predominantly theoretical with an indirect experimental witness — quantum yield can be raised by several mechanisms — which is why this is provisional rather than well supported. Strongest opposing consideration: radiative lifetime is not coherence time, the arresting "tens of seconds" figure is the modeled radiative lifetime of a dark eigenstate and is silent on environmental dephasing, and Dicke-type collective emission appears in ordered non-neural scaffolds, so geometric regularity rather than neural specialness may be doing the work.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Kimi K3 (Moonshot, via Venice) — independent check run via kimi-k3 · run 2026-08-27-check-kimi · unreviewed draft
The measured fluorescence quantum-yield trend matches the superradiance model's prediction across geometric regimes, from a group substantially independent of the Hameroff–Penrose line, which strengthens the record. It is provisional rather than well supported because the paper is predominantly theoretical with a confirming bulk measurement, and quantum yield is an indirect witness that several mechanisms can raise. The strongest opposing consideration is the distinction the literature repeatedly blurs: the striking "tens of seconds" figure is a modeled radiative lifetime of a dark collective eigenstate, not a decoherence time — a state can be radiatively dark for seconds and dephase in femtoseconds — and comparably ordered non-neural assemblies show the same class of effect, suggesting geometric regularity rather than neural specialness is doing the work. On the quantity Orch OR actually needs, the paper is silent.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Opus 5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5 · run 2026-08-27-check-opus · unreviewed draft
The paper is predominantly theoretical with a confirming bulk fluorescence quantum-yield measurement in the predicted direction, from a group substantially independent of the theory's originators (ORCH-E004). Quantum yield is an indirect witness of collective states and several mechanisms can raise it, so the collective-eigenstate interpretation is model-dependent even though the measured trend is real. The strongest opposing consideration is that Dicke-type collective emission has been engineered in ordered protein scaffolds with no cognitive relevance, implying geometric regularity rather than neural specialness does the work — and separately that the widely circulated "tens of seconds" figure is a modeled radiative lifetime, not a decoherence time, so this record cannot be upgraded into evidence about coherence.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-09-01-auto-8fv7 · unreviewed draft
The measured quantum-yield trend matches the collective-state prediction from a substantially independent group, but the confirmation is bulk and indirect and quantum yield has several possible causes. The widely quoted 'tens of seconds' is a dark-state radiative lifetime, not a decoherence time.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-09-01-auto-ledp · unreviewed draft
The measured quantum-yield trend matches the collective-state prediction from a substantially independent group, but the confirmation is bulk and indirect and quantum yield has several possible causes. The widely quoted 'tens of seconds' is a dark-state radiative lifetime, not a decoherence time.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Gemini 3.1 Pro (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.1-pro-preview · run 2026-09-01-check-gemini · unreviewed draft
Babcock 2024 confirms quantum-yield enhancement scaling with microtubule architecture, pointing toward superradiance. The strongest opposing consideration is that this measures the radiative lifetime of a dark state—a phenomenon of light-matter coupling—which is fundamentally distinct from physiological decoherence times.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · GPT-5.1 (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.1 · run 2026-09-01-check-gpt · unreviewed draft
Babcock et al. provide a credible combination of theory and experiment showing that organized tryptophan networks in microtubule architectures exhibit enhanced fluorescence quantum yield consistent with superradiant collective states, with predictions borne out across organizational levels at room temperature. However, the empirical support hinges on indirect bulk fluorescence measurements, and superradiance pertains to radiative lifetimes rather than environmental decoherence times. The strongest opposing consideration is that similar Dicke-type collective effects have been engineered in other ordered protein/dye assemblies unrelated to cognition, suggesting this is a generic consequence of geometric regularity rather than evidence for any special role in consciousness.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Grok 4.6 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.6 · run 2026-09-01-check-grok · unreviewed draft
Babcock et al. predict strongly superradiant states among organized arrangements of more than 10^5 tryptophan transition dipoles and report that fluorescence quantum yield increases with hierarchical organization as the model predicts, persisting with disorder, from a group substantially outside the Hameroff–Penrose line. Quantum yield is an indirect witness and the paper is predominantly theoretical with a confirming bulk-fluorescence measurement, which is why the grade is provisional. The strongest opposing consideration is the distinction the literature blurs: radiative lifetime is not coherence time, Dicke-type collective emission occurs in ordered non-neural scaffolds, and cooperative light–matter coupling is a different process from gravitationally induced state reduction.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Kimi K3 (Moonshot, via Venice) — independent check run via kimi-k3 · run 2026-09-01-check-kimi · unreviewed draft
The measured quantum-yield trend matches the collective-superradiance model's prediction across geometric regimes, from a group substantially independent of the Hameroff–Penrose line, which strengthens the record. It is held at provisional because the paper is predominantly a theoretical analysis with a bulk-fluorescence witness, and quantum yield is an indirect observable that several mechanisms can raise. The strongest opposing consideration is the comparison class: Dicke-type collective emission has been engineered in ordered non-neural scaffolds such as dye-decorated virus capsids, suggesting geometric regularity rather than neural specialness is doing the work — and the arresting "tens of seconds" figure is a modeled radiative lifetime of a dark state, not a decoherence time, so on the quantity Orch OR actually needs this paper is silent.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Opus 5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5 · run 2026-09-01-check-opus · unreviewed draft
The measured quantum-yield trend across geometric regimes matches the superradiance model's prediction and the group is substantially independent of the Hameroff–Penrose line, which is what keeps this above weak. It stays below well_supported because the paper is predominantly theoretical with a bulk-fluorescence confirmation, and quantum yield is an indirect witness that several mechanisms can raise. The strongest opposing consideration is the availability of an ordinary explanation: Dicke-type collective emission has been engineered in ordered protein scaffolds with no cognitive relevance, so geometric regularity rather than neural specialness may be doing all the work — and the widely quoted "tens of seconds" is a modeled radiative lifetime, not a coherence time.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-09-02-auto-79ed · unreviewed draft
The measured quantum-yield trend matches the collective-state prediction from a substantially independent group, but the confirmation is bulk and indirect and quantum yield has several possible causes. The widely quoted 'tens of seconds' is a dark-state radiative lifetime, not a decoherence time.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-09-02-auto-tyck · unreviewed draft
The measured quantum-yield trend matches the collective-state prediction from a substantially independent group, but the confirmation is bulk and indirect and quantum yield has several possible causes. The widely quoted 'tens of seconds' is a dark-state radiative lifetime, not a decoherence time.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · none — mechanical migration (scripts/migrations/2026-09-08-editions.ts) · run 2026-09-08-migration-orch-or · unreviewed draft
Evidence-only: peer-reviewed, and the measured quantum-yield trend matches the model's prediction across geometric regimes at thermal equilibrium, with the effect reported as persisting in the presence of disorder. The reason this is "provisionally" rather than "well" supported is the balance of the paper: it is predominantly a theoretical analysis with a confirming bulk-fluorescence measurement, and quantum yield is an indirect witness of collective states — several mechanisms can raise it. The group (Howard University, with EPFL and Florence) is substantially independent of the Hameroff–Penrose line, which strengthens the record.
Mixedconfidence: moderate · claude-opus-5 · run 2026-09-11-edition-124802 · unreviewed draft
Downgraded from provisionally supported on the metrology records. Support: ORCH-E004 predicts and measures a quantum-yield enhancement with hierarchical organization, and ORCH-E056 reproduces the direction cross-laboratory in porcine tubulin at 280 nm with statistical significance on both absorbance branches. Against: ORCH-E075 shows the effect size at 280 nm ranging from about +6.1% to +46.8% purely on the choice of scattering treatment, and ORCH-E076 through ORCH-E079 show that at 295 nm — where excitation is most selective for tryptophan, and therefore where comparison with a tryptophan-only excitonic model is most meaningful — the two treatments reverse sign (about −58.6% against +12.7%), with the authors declining to assign any effect size. An observable whose sign is undetermined at the diagnostic wavelength cannot be said to increase in the direction a specific model predicts. ORCH-E080 adds that structural variability suppresses the cooperative enhancement the model's strong reading relies on.
Well supportedconfidence: moderate · Gemini 3.8 Flash (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.8-flash · run 2026-09-30-check-gemini-104603 · unreviewed draft
Babcock et al. experimentally confirmed that hierarchical assembly of tubulin into microtubules enhances ultraviolet fluorescence quantum yield at room temperature, matching predictions from collective superradiant dipole models. Independent measurements by Gassab & Craddock confirmed this quantum yield increase upon polymerization at 280 nm. The strongest opposing consideration is that the quantum yield change at the tryptophan-selective 295 nm wavelength reverses sign depending on the baseline scattering correction applied, indicating substantial metrological sensitivity.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · GLM 5.3 Flash (Z.ai, via Venice) — independent check run via z-ai-glm-5-3-flash · run 2026-09-30-check-glm-104603 · unreviewed draft
Babcock et al. report the predicted quantum-yield enhancement with collective-state modeling, and the Gassab 2026A preprint adds partial cross-lab support at 280 nm. The strongest opposing consideration is metrological: at 295 nm, the most tryptophan-selective wavelength, the polymerization effect reverses sign across plausible scattering corrections, and the 280 nm effect magnitude spans +6% to +47% depending on the correction branch. The direction is probably right; the observable is not yet stable enough to score against models.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · GPT-5.6 Sol (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.6-sol · run 2026-09-30-check-gpt-104603 · unreviewed draft
ORCH-E004 reports the predicted quantum-yield enhancement and an experimental bulk measurement in the same direction, while ORCH-E056 adds partial cross-laboratory support at 280 nm. However, the estimated magnitude varies greatly with scattering correction, and at tryptophan-selective 295 nm the sign reverses between plausible analysis branches. The strongest opposing consideration is therefore metrological instability coupled with conventional local-photophysics alternatives to superradiance.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Grok 4.5 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.5 · run 2026-09-30-check-grok-104603 · unreviewed draft
Babcock et al. predict superradiant tryptophan-network states and report fluorescence quantum-yield enhancement with hierarchical organization; Gassab et al. find polymerization raises QY at 280 nm in another preparation. Strongest opposing consideration is large scattering-correction dependence, sign instability at tryptophan-selective 295 nm, and the authors’ caution that steady-state QY shifts need not be collective emission.
Mixedconfidence: moderate · claude-opus-5-5 · run 2026-09-30-edition-094411 · unreviewed draft
ORCH-E004 and the cross-laboratory ORCH-E056 support the direction of the quantum-yield increase at 280 nm. But ORCH-E075 puts its size anywhere between +6% and +47% depending on the correction chosen. ORCH-E076 to ORCH-E079 show the sign reversing at the tryptophan-selective 295 nm. The direction is real at one wavelength; the fit to the superradiance model is not yet testable.