Append-only AI overlay records; the canon claim file is never mutated.
Well supportedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-25-auto-csak · unreviewed draft
The 48-run design with NMR and HRMS confirmation (TIK-E008) is strong feasibility evidence; held below established because it has one performance by an interested-network team (TIK-E011) and no blinded replication (TIK-R002).
Well supportedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-25-auto-n1z0 · unreviewed draft
The 48-run experiment with NMR and HRMS confirmation is strong feasibility evidence (TIK-E008) and closes the toxicity objection at the level of possibility. Not established: one performance, interested-network authorship (TIK-E011), modern ergot standing in for ancient, and no independent replication (TIK-R002).
Well supportedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-25-auto-q0jx · unreviewed draft
A 48-run design with NMR and HRMS confirmation is strong feasibility evidence (TIK-E008). Held below established: one performance, interested-network authorship, modern ergot, and the fact that only the harshest condition worked makes the required historical technology more specific and wholly unattested.
Well supportedconfidence: moderate · Gemini 3.1 Pro (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.1-pro-preview · run 2026-08-25-check-gemini · unreviewed draft
A comprehensive 2026 laboratory experiment demonstrated that controlled, high-pH wood-ash lye refluxing successfully hydrolyzes toxic ergopeptides into measurable LSA, proving feasibility with ancient materials. The strongest opposing consideration is that this single experiment, performed by an interested network, requires a highly specific, controlled hot-alkaline technology attested nowhere in antiquity, demonstrating modern chemical capability rather than historical sanctuary practice.
Well supportedconfidence: moderate · GPT-5.1 (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.1 · run 2026-08-25-check-gpt · unreviewed draft
The 2026 Scientific Reports study demonstrates, with modern analytical methods across 48 runs, that strong wood-ash lye can hydrolyze toxic ergot ergopeptides into LSA and iso‑LSA, eliminating the monitored toxins and yielding measurable lysergamides at around 1 mg/g. This robustly establishes chemical feasibility under ancient- plausible operations. The main caveats are that the work has not yet been independently replicated and was conducted by an interest network including the hypothesis’s originators; lower pH or shorter treatments in their own data also leave toxic residues, so ancient safety under less controlled conditions remains untested.
Well supportedconfidence: moderate · Grok 4.6 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.6 · run 2026-08-25-check-grok · unreviewed draft
The 2026 experiment, across a 48-run design with NMR and UHPLC/Q-TOF-HRMS confirmation, showed complete hydrolysis of the six predominant toxic ergopeptides at 5 percent w/v ergot, initial lye pH 12.5, and 120 minutes of reflux, with LSA and iso-LSA appearing at 0.54 and 0.48 mg per gram of ergot. That is a real chemical result, and it closes the classic toxicity objection at the level of possibility; the authors are explicit that they demonstrated feasibility, not ancient practice. The strongest opposing consideration is that the work was performed once, by a team including the hypothesis's originators and members of an entheogen-research center, using modern pH control, and that weaker or shorter treatments left poison detectable — so the historical reconstruction now requires a specific controlled technology no source attests, and independent replication is still outstanding.
Well supportedconfidence: moderate · Kimi K3 (Moonshot, via Venice) — independent check run via kimi-k3 · run 2026-08-25-check-kimi · unreviewed draft
The 2026 study (TIK-E008) is a real experimental demonstration: 48 runs, complete disappearance of all six monitored toxic ergopeptides and their epimers at 5% w/v ergot, pH 12.5, 120-minute reflux, confirmed by NMR and UHPLC/Q-TOF-HRMS, with quantitative LSA and iso-LSA yields. I note openly that my confidence leans partly on general chemical priors — alkaline hydrolysis of ergopeptides is unsurprising chemistry — not only on the record. The strongest opposing consideration is independence and robustness: performed once, by a team including the hypothesis's originators and an entheogen-research center, with modern pH control, and the safe window is narrow — lower pH or shorter treatment left poison detectable. As a capability claim it is well supported; blinded independent replication (TIK-R002) remains the credibility lever.
Well supportedconfidence: moderate · Opus 5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5 · run 2026-08-25-check-opus · unreviewed draft
A 48-run peer-reviewed experiment with 1H-NMR and UHPLC/Q-TOF-HRMS confirmation reports complete hydrolysis of all six predominant ergopeptides and their epimers at 5% w/v ergot, initial lye pH 12.5 and 120 minutes reflux, with 0.54 mg LSA and 0.48 mg iso-LSA per gram of ergot. General chemical background raises this above single-study status: ergopeptines are peptide amides of lysergic acid, so alkaline cleavage to lysergamides with C-8 epimerisation is the expected reaction, which is why I grade it well_supported despite the interested-network authorship. The strongest opposing consideration is robustness rather than existence: the paper's own data show lower pH or shorter treatment leaves toxic ergopeptides detectable, so the safety envelope for a sensory-cue-guided ancient operator is untested, the extract's full composition unprofiled, and no disinterested laboratory has repeated it (TIK-R002). Feasibility is also, as the authors state, not evidence of practice — and the successful condition implies a specific controlled technology, making the historical reconstruction more demanding, not less.
Well supportedconfidence: moderate · Fable (Claude), via Cursor · run 2026-08-25-fable-immortality-key-1 · unreviewed draft
A 48-run design with NMR and high-resolution MS confirmation is strong feasibility evidence; graded below established because it has one performance, by interested-network authors, and the safety margin under non-ideal conditions is untested (TIK-R002).
Well supportedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (reconsideration — deliberately non-blind: engages the panel's dissents) · run 2026-08-25-reconsider-pa95 · unreviewed draft
A 48-run design with NMR and HRMS confirmation is strong feasibility evidence (TIK-E008) and retires the toxicity objection at the level of possibility. Held below established: one performance, interested-network authorship, modern ergot, no in-vivo data. Note the cost — strong lye and two hours of controlled heat is an unattested technology.
Well supportedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-26-auto-944b · unreviewed draft
A 48-run design with 1H-NMR and UHPLC/Q-TOF-HRMS confirmation is strong feasibility evidence (TIK-E008). Held short of established by single-performance status, interested-network authorship (Ruck co-authoring both the 2000 proposal TIK-E011 and the 2026 test), and use of modern ergot.
Well supportedconfidence: moderate · none — mechanical migration (scripts/migrations/2026-09-08-editions.ts) · run 2026-09-08-migration-immortality-key · unreviewed draft
Demonstrated across a 48-run experimental design with NMR and UHPLC/Q-TOF-HRMS confirmation (TIK-E008): at 5% w/v ergot, initial lye pH 12.5, and 120 minutes of reflux, the six predominant toxic ergopeptides and their epimers were completely hydrolyzed while LSA and iso-LSA appeared at 0.54 and 0.48 mg per gram of ergot. Graded as feasibility: the authors are explicit that demonstrating the transformation, not ancient practice, was the study's scope — and the interested-network authorship (hypothesis originators among the co-authors) makes independent replication (TIK-R002) the fastest credibility lever available to the pro side.
Well supportedconfidence: moderate · claude-fable-5-1 · run 2026-09-16-edition-034911 · unreviewed draft
TIK-E008 (48 runs, full methods, peer-reviewed) and TIK-E038 (the preprint's stated conditions) show complete ergopeptide disappearance with LSA/iso-LSA at 0.54 and 0.48 mg/g under the optimal condition. One performance by interested-network authors, unreplicated; TIK-E010 and TIK-E011 are its lineage, not independent support.
Well supportedconfidence: moderate · claude-fable-5-1 · run 2026-09-17-edition-133507 · unreviewed draft
TIK-E008 (strong) reports complete disappearance of the six toxic ergopeptides with LSA and iso-LSA at 0.54 and 0.48 mg/g over 48 runs; TIK-E038 (same performance) fixes the conditions; TIK-E010 and TIK-E011 are the proposal's lineage. Single performance by interested-network authors, no independent replication.
Well supportedconfidence: high · Gemini 3.8 Flash (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.8-flash · run 2026-09-30-check-gemini-110606 · unreviewed draft
Controlled experimentation published in 2026 demonstrates that wood-ash lye hydrolysis at pH 12.5 refluxed for 120 minutes successfully eliminates the toxic peptide alkaloids of Claviceps purpurea and produces quantifiable yields of LSA and iso-LSA. The strongest opposing consideration is that this successful bench reaction required aggressive, highly specific conditions that have not yet been corroborated by an independent, disinterested laboratory or supported by ancient technological descriptions.
Well supportedconfidence: high · GLM 5.3 Flash (Z.ai, via Venice) — independent check run via z-ai-glm-5-3-flash · run 2026-09-30-check-glm-110606 · unreviewed draft
A peer-reviewed experiment with 48 runs, published methods, and quantified yields (0.54 mg LSA and 0.48 mg iso-LSA per gram) directly demonstrates the conversion, with complete ergopeptide disappearance at the optimal condition — a real mechanism measurement, not an analogy. The strongest opposing considerations are the interested-network authorship (Ruck co-authored the 1978 proposal, the 2000 proposal, and this validation), the fact that all records trace to a single performance awaiting independent replication, and the narrowness of the successful window.
Well supportedconfidence: moderate · GPT-5.6 Sol (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.6-sol · run 2026-09-30-check-gpt-110606 · unreviewed draft
TIK-E008 directly reports production of 0.54 mg LSA and 0.48 mg iso-LSA per gram of ergot after reflux in strong wood-ash-type lye, with the monitored predominant ergopeptides disappearing under the successful condition. TIK-E038 confirms the narrow operating parameters but is the same experiment, not an independent replication. The strongest opposing considerations are that technical availability in antiquity rests partly on the general prior that ash lye and heated processing were accessible, and no evidence record attests this specific procedure in ancient use.
Well supportedconfidence: high · Grok 4.5 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.5 · run 2026-09-30-check-grok-110606 · unreviewed draft
The 2026 factorial experiments demonstrate that wood-ash-type lye at 5 percent w/v ergot and initial pH 12.5 for 120 minutes fully hydrolyzes the monitored toxic ergopeptides into LSA and iso-LSA at approximately 0.5 mg each per gram of ergot. The reaction is chemically real under those conditions. The strongest opposing consideration is the narrow process window (lower pH or shorter time leaves toxins) and the persistence of ergometrine, plus interested-network authorship that still awaits independent replication.
Well supportedconfidence: high · Opus 5.5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5-5 · run 2026-09-30-check-opus-110606 · unreviewed draft
E008 is a peer-reviewed factorial experiment (48 runs; 1H-NMR and UHPLC/Q-TOF-HRMS). Lye at 5% w/v ergot, initial pH 12.5 and 120 minutes' reflux left no detectable trace of the six predominant ergopeptides and their C-8 epimers, while yielding 0.54 mg LSA and 0.48 mg iso-LSA per gram; the preprint (E038) reports the same experiment. As a "can" claim this is well supported, and it fits general ergot chemistry (a prior used only as a consistency check). Strongest opposing consideration: it is a single run of work by the hypothesis's originating network, not replicated with independent or variable-content ergot (R002), and "technically available in antiquity" is the authors' argument, not a measurement; the record calls the reagent "wood-ash-type" lye, and only the strongest condition worked (C028). E010 and E011 are the mechanism's lineage, not corroboration, and feasibility is not evidence that anyone at Eleusis did it.
Well supportedconfidence: moderate · claude-opus-5-5 · run 2026-09-30-edition-095623 · unreviewed draft
The 48-run experiment (TIK-E008) shows complete hydrolysis of the toxic ergopeptides, with LSA and iso-LSA at about 0.5 mg per gram. The preprint (TIK-E038) confirms the narrow conditions. It is peer-reviewed with published methods, but was performed once by authors from the hypothesis's own network. TIK-E010 and TIK-E011 are provenance only.