Before Sputnik · claim TRN-C132 · Observation rung · Plate forensics and copy genealogy

Fourteen of the 16 significant 5° × 5° hotspot cells showed a transient excess beyond expectations on at least two different POSS-I photographic plates.

Not featured in the current editionAI-extractedorigin: split of TRN-C120 (report 2026-09-10-inbox-transients-173613)

source anchor

[p. 6]

“showed a transient excess beyond expectations on at least two”

Evidence

Supports· moderateTRN-E075

Hotspot preprint: most hotspot cells are fed by more than one plate; two by a single plate (XE435) — part 1

what the source states: Decomposing each significant 5° × 5° cell by photographic plate, fourteen of the 16 cells "showed a transient excess beyond expectations on at least two" different plates.
what we infer: Useful against the single-bad-plate explanation for most cells, though the two highest-O/E cells after the Pacific ones (5 and 8, O/E 16.6 and 9.9) are single-plate. The paper also concedes (p. 17) that because both methods use the same transient sample, "their agreement alone does not rule out this possibility" of defect-driven hotspots.
limitations: Plate overlap is defined in projected coordinates, not on the sky
Per-plate significance tested at unadjusted p<0.05

Stephen Bruehl (2026)AI-verified citation

Context· moderateTRN-E076

Hotspot preprint: most hotspot cells are fed by more than one plate; two by a single plate (XE435) — part 2

what the source states: Of the 16 significant cells, 12 showed a transient excess "on at least three plates" when decomposed by contributing photographic plate.
what we infer: Useful against the single-bad-plate explanation for most cells, though the two highest-O/E cells after the Pacific ones (5 and 8, O/E 16.6 and 9.9) are single-plate. The paper also concedes (p. 17) that because both methods use the same transient sample, "their agreement alone does not rule out this possibility" of defect-driven hotspots.
limitations: Plate overlap is defined in projected coordinates, not on the sky
Per-plate significance tested at unadjusted p<0.05
Direction set to "context" (from "supports") by the second reader (claude-sonnet-5, 2026-09-10, run 2026-09-10-verify-transients-174405, verify-v5) at intake: The quoted figure (12 of 16 cells showing excess on at least three plates) is accurately taken from the unadjusted plate-decomposition analysis on p.6, but it is a different statistic than the one the claim actually asserts (14 cells at ≥2 plates and the 2 cells at 92.5°W tied exclusively to plate XE435). It corroborates the general theme that hotspots are not single-plate artifacts but does not itself confirm or deny the specific 14/2-cell breakdown stated in a proposed claim not admitted at intake ('Fourteen of the 16 Earth-projected hotspot cells…'), so it functions as contextual corroboration rather than direct support of that claim's specific content.

Stephen Bruehl (2026)AI-verified citation

Supports· moderateTRN-E077

Hotspot preprint: most hotspot cells are fed by more than one plate; two by a single plate (XE435) — part 3

what the source states: The two adjacent cells centered at 92.5° W (Hotspots 5 and 8) "were associated exclusively with a single plate, XE435" (Supplemental Table 1).
what we infer: Useful against the single-bad-plate explanation for most cells, though the two highest-O/E cells after the Pacific ones (5 and 8, O/E 16.6 and 9.9) are single-plate. The paper also concedes (p. 17) that because both methods use the same transient sample, "their agreement alone does not rule out this possibility" of defect-driven hotspots.
limitations: Plate overlap is defined in projected coordinates, not on the sky
Per-plate significance tested at unadjusted p<0.05
Second reader (claude-sonnet-5, 2026-09-10, run 2026-09-10-verify-transients-174405, verify-v5) disputes the stated direction toward TRN-C132: The quote accurately reports that Hotspots 5 and 8 were the two exceptions tied to a single plate (XE435), consistent with Supplemental Table 1 showing one contributing plate for each. However, this passage does not itself assert or establish that the other 14 hotspots showed excess on at least two plates (TRN-C132); it merely identifies the complementary exception cells, so it bears on the topic without directly supporting the claim's specific numerical finding, making 'context' the more accurate direction than 'supports'.

Stephen Bruehl (2026)AI-verified citation

an honest empty state

This claim is in the ledger but not in the current edition's featured set. Nothing here has been assessed — that absence is information, not an oversight.

Still missing: plain-language gloss, credibility assessment, diagnosticity assessment, strongest objection, what would change our mind. A claim gains them when an edition features it and the edition's adopted assessment supplies the full treatment — a decision the panel reviews, not a field anyone flips.