Append-only AI overlay records; the canon claim file is never mutated.
Weakly supportedconfidence: low · claude-fable-5-1 · run 2026-09-22-edition-123015 · unreviewed draft
Every admitted record is context: a 1986 clinic-population estimate that myofascial pain affects about 23 million Americans, quoted second-hand in a 2011 introduction and concerning a pain syndrome rather than tender points in ordinary people (VASO-E108); the same introduction's remark that the syndrome is commonly recognized as 'muscle knots' (VASO-E109); and two pain-free individuals with high tender-point counts in a pain-selected community subsample (VASO-E082). No population count of palpable knots exists; the founding essay's report of ubiquity is a provisional record treated as absent. Weakly supported rather than unresolved because the research literature uniformly treats the phenomenon as common, but the frequency itself is unmeasured.
Unresolvedconfidence: low · claude-fable-5-1 · run 2026-09-23-edition-015207 · unreviewed draft
No admitted record supports the claim. The two records attached to it are context: a 1986 clinic estimate for a pain syndrome quoted second-hand in a 2011 introduction (VASO-E108) and the same introduction's remark that the syndrome is colloquially called 'muscle knots' (VASO-E109). Neither counts tender points in anyone. Croft 1994's two pain-free individuals with high counts (VASO-E082, context) sit in a subsample selected on reported pain, from which no prevalence follows. The founding essay's report of dozens per body, the critical report's caution and the scanner note are provisional records treated as absent and contribute nothing. Frequency across the general population is unmeasured, so the claim is unresolved rather than weakly supported.
Weakly supportedconfidence: moderate · Gemini 3.8 Flash (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.8-flash · run 2026-09-30-check-gemini-104542 · unreviewed draft
Non-provisional evidence for general population prevalence is limited to Croft 1994 (VASO-E082), which examined a pain-selected subsample and noted tender points in pain-free subjects, and secondary introductory citations of older clinic data (VASO-E108). All primary records alleging widespread ubiquity in healthy populations (VASO-E012, VASO-E015) are provisional and excluded, and the ledger confirms that a true general population knot census has never been conducted. The strongest opposing consideration is widespread clinical consensus and epidemiological survey work indicating that localized muscular tenderness is exceedingly common across adult populations.
Unresolvedconfidence: low · GLM 5.3 Flash (Z.ai, via Venice) — independent check run via z-ai-glm-5-3-flash · run 2026-09-30-check-glm-104542 · unreviewed draft
The ledger holds no direct support: the essay's community medians (6 in women, 3 in men) sit in a provisional record treated as absent (E015), and the admitted records are context-grade only — two pain-free individuals with high counts in a pain-selected subsample (E082), a second-hand 1986 clinic estimate (E108), and a naming remark (E109). Croft 1994 is community-based but pain-selected and tests fixed sites, not palpable knots. The claim is plausibly true on background knowledge of the fibromyalgia tender-point literature, but the verdict leans on that prior rather than on ledger evidence, so it stays unresolved.
Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · GPT-5.6 Sol (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.6-sol · run 2026-09-30-check-gpt-104542 · unreviewed draft
After excluding provisional VASO-E015, the packet contains no representative census of palpable knots across the general population. VASO-E082 identifies two pain-free people with high fixed-site tender-point counts, while VASO-E108 concerns a broad pain syndrome and is only contextual. The strongest opposing consideration to commonness is that the available community subsample was pain-selected and used an 18-site tenderness protocol rather than a census of palpable knots.
Weakly supportedconfidence: low · Grok 4.5 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.5 · run 2026-09-30-check-grok-104542 · unreviewed draft
Essay second-hand medians and “nearly universal” claims (E015 provisional/absent); Ballyns introduction cites a 1986 clinic prevalence for myofascial pain syndrome, not a general-population knot census (E108). Croft is pain-selected. No true census exists. Strongest opposing consideration is that community tender-point surveys exist but measure fixed-site tenderness, not free-palpated knot burden.
Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · Opus 5.5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5-5 · run 2026-09-30-check-opus-104542 · unreviewed draft
No admitted record measures tender-point prevalence in an unselected general population. Croft et al.'s examined subsample was selected for pain (E062), and the ledger holds from it only that two subjects reporting no pain had eleven or more tender points (E082). Ballyns's "23 million Americans" is a second-hand 1986 figure for a pain syndrome, not a tender-point count (E108). The essay's community medians and its census-gap observation (E015) are provisional and treated as absent. General clinical experience makes commonness plausible, but that is a prior rather than a ledger measurement, and the census (VASO-R002) is the cheap decisive test. Strongest opposing consideration: high counts elicited even among people reporting no pain (E082) suggest that tenderness under examination is not confined to patients, which is the direction the claim predicts.
Unresolvedconfidence: low · claude-opus-5-5 · run 2026-09-30-edition-072251 · unreviewed draft
No record counts tender points in unselected people. The two records on the claim are context: a 1986 clinic estimate for myofascial pain quoted second-hand (VASO-E108), and the phrase 'commonly recognized as muscle knots' (VASO-E109). The 1994 pain-free individuals (VASO-E082) sit in a pain-selected sample. Commonness is simply unmeasured.