Append-only AI overlay records; the canon claim file is never mutated.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Fable 5 (Claude), via Claude Code · run 2026-08-22-fable-1 · unreviewed draft
Both components verified in the author's own words. The claim is deliberately calibrated — consistency is unselective, the Bell foothold is preliminary — and the evidence supports exactly that calibration, no more. This is simultaneously the program's best quantum asset and the steelman's best exhibit.
Well supportedconfidence: high · Gemini 3.1 Pro (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.1-pro-preview · run 2026-08-23-check-gemini · unreviewed draft
The claim exactly matches Müller's own documented exposition and peer-reviewed abstract: algorithmic idealism is asymptotically consistent with whatever computable law generates the data, and it includes a valid but heavily-conditioned theorem regarding Bell violations. Müller explicitly labels the latter as "preliminary" because it relies on too many assumptions. The strongest opposing consideration is that mere consistency with quantum mechanics constitutes unselective explanatory weakness, not theoretical support.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · GPT-5.1 (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.1 · run 2026-08-23-check-gpt · unreviewed draft
The consistency claim follows almost tautologically from the fact that universal induction converges to any computable regularity, including those generated by quantum theory, and Müller’s exposition explicitly presents this asymptotic consistency (ZW-E001, ZW-E003). He also describes, and labels as preliminary, a theorem that Bell inequality violations with no-signalling “can sometimes be expected” under additional assumptions (ZW-E003). The strongest opposing consideration is that such generic consistency is non-selective—it would equally accommodate classical or superquantum no-signalling worlds—and that a “sometimes” Bell-violation result under heavy assumptions falls well short of a robust prediction of specifically quantum nonlocality, which justifies the cautious provisional verdict.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Grok 4.6 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.6 · run 2026-08-23-check-grok · unreviewed draft
Both halves of the claim are taken from the framework’s own record: universal induction will learn quantum regularities if those regularities generate the observer’s data, and the 2020 paper contains a genuine but heavily conditioned theorem that Bell violation with no-signalling can sometimes be expected. Müller’s exposition is the strongest source, and it is the source that applies the word “preliminary.” The strongest opposing consideration is that consistency with quantum mechanics is consistency with any computable law, so nothing specifically quantum has been selected, and a theorem that violation “can sometimes be expected” under extra assumptions is not a derivation of quantum statistics or of the Tsirelson cap.
Well supportedconfidence: moderate · Kimi K3 (Moonshot, via Venice) — independent check run via kimi-k3 · run 2026-08-23-check-kimi · unreviewed draft
Both conjuncts are documented in the theorist's own words: asymptotic consistency follows from universal induction learning whatever computable law generates the data, and the 2020 Bell theorem exists but is self-described as "preliminary... too many assumptions" (ZW-E001, E003). The claim as stated is therefore an accurate, deliberately hedged status report. The strongest opposing consideration is the unselectivity charge: consistency with quantum mechanics is consistency with any computable world, so the first conjunct carries almost no quantum-specific information, and "can sometimes be expected" under extra assumptions is not a prediction of Tsirelson-capped statistics. Confidence is moderate rather than high because the characterization rests on abstracts and the author's exposition rather than a re-derivation of the proofs, and the claim's evidential weight is thin by its own admission.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Opus 5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5 · run 2026-08-23-check-opus · unreviewed draft
Both conjuncts are documented in the theorist's own hedged words (ZW-E003), and the claim deliberately avoids the stronger glosses that circulate — this is descriptively careful. The verdict is held below well_supported because the load-bearing evidence is a living self-published webpage plus a journal abstract, with no independent check of the Bell theorem's assumption set, and because "can sometimes be expected" is a statement whose precise content cannot be assessed from the records provided. The strongest opposing consideration cuts against the claim's evidential significance rather than its truth: asymptotic consistency with quantum mechanics is consistency with anything computable, so the first conjunct is nearly vacuous as support for the program, and a heavily conditioned theorem that Bell violation can sometimes be expected is far from a prediction that it must occur with quantum statistics capped at 2√2.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-fable-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-24-auto-0bno · unreviewed draft
Both components remain verified in the author's own words (ZW-E003): consistency is unselective, and the Bell result is a valid but heavily conditioned theorem. Nothing new bears on it; it stays the program's best quantum asset and the steelman's best exhibit simultaneously.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-25-auto-c7tl · unreviewed draft
Both halves are author-verified (ZW-E003): asymptotic consistency is unselective between quantum and any other computable regularity, and the Bell result is valid but heavily conditioned and self-labelled preliminary. A weak link because the program's entire quantum foothold rests on this one result.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-25-auto-fcnc · unreviewed draft
Author-verified on both halves (ZW-E003): asymptotic consistency is unselective, and the 2020 Bell result is a valid but heavily conditioned, self-labelled preliminary theorem. It is a weak link because the program's entire quantum foothold rests on it alone.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-25-auto-uuso · unreviewed draft
Both halves remain verified in the author's own framing (ZW-E003): asymptotic consistency is unselective, and the Bell result is a valid but heavily conditioned theorem. No new material bears on it, so it stays simultaneously the program's best quantum asset and the steelman's best exhibit.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (reconsideration — deliberately non-blind: engages the panel's dissents) · run 2026-08-25-reconsider-03ik · unreviewed draft
Author-verified on both halves (ZW-E003): asymptotic consistency is unselective, and the 2020 Bell result is a valid but heavily conditioned, self-labelled preliminary theorem. Simultaneously the program's best quantum asset and the steelman's best exhibit; a weak link because the case's quantum foothold rests on it alone.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-26-auto-dahu · unreviewed draft
Both halves are author-verified (ZW-E003): asymptotic consistency is unselective, and the 2020 Bell result is a valid but heavily conditioned, self-labelled preliminary theorem. It is simultaneously the program's best quantum asset and the steelman's best exhibit.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-fable-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-09-01-auto-9jlt · unreviewed draft
Both halves are author-verified (ZW-E003); the 2020 Bell result remains a valid but heavily conditioned, self-labelled preliminary theorem — the program's best quantum asset and the steelman's best exhibit at once.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-fable-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-09-01-auto-dhkf · unreviewed draft
Unchanged: both halves author-verified (ZW-E003); the 2020 Bell result remains a valid but heavily conditioned, self-labelled preliminary theorem — simultaneously the program's best quantum asset and the steelman's best exhibit.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-fable-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-09-01-auto-m3op · unreviewed draft
Both halves are author-verified (ZW-E003); the 2020 Bell result is a valid but heavily conditioned, self-labelled preliminary theorem — the program's best quantum asset and the steelman's best exhibit at once.
Well supportedconfidence: high · Gemini 3.1 Pro (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.1-pro-preview · run 2026-09-01-check-gemini · unreviewed draft
Müller’s framework accommodates computable quantum regularities asymptotically, and it possesses a preliminary theorem showing that Bell violations can sometimes be expected (E001). The claim exactly matches Müller's own assessment that this result rests on too many assumptions (E003). The strongest opposing consideration is that universal induction would learn any computable regularity, so achieving asymptotic consistency explains nothing uniquely quantum.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · GPT-5.1 (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.1 · run 2026-09-01-check-gpt · unreviewed draft
The asymptotic-consistency part follows mechanically from the definition of universal induction: as ZW-E001 notes, it converges to whatever computable process generates an observer’s data, including quantum dynamics. ZW-E003 then explicitly describes a “valid” but “preliminary” theorem showing that Bell-inequality violation with preserved no-signalling can sometimes be expected. This suffices to substantiate the existence and status of such a result. The strongest counter-consideration is that consistency with any computable law is explanatorily unselective, and a “sometimes” Bell violation under added assumptions falls well short of a robust derivation of quantum nonlocality; its physical import therefore remains weak.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · Grok 4.6 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.6 · run 2026-09-01-check-grok · unreviewed draft
Asymptotic consistency with quantum mechanics follows immediately if quantum theory generates the computable regularities in an observer’s data, because universal induction learns whatever computable law is there (ZW-E001). The 2020 paper also proves a theorem that Bell-inequality violation with no-signalling can sometimes be expected; Müller’s own exposition calls it “a valid theorem, but ‘preliminary’ because it still rests on too many assumptions” (ZW-E003). Both halves are therefore real and correctly hedged. The strongest opposing consideration is that consistency-with-QM is consistency-with-any-computable-law — classical, stochastic, or post-quantum would be learned with equal serenity — and that “can sometimes be expected” under extra assumptions is not a prediction that correlations must cap at the Tsirelson bound. That is exactly why the foothold remains provisional.
Well supportedconfidence: high · Kimi K3 (Moonshot, via Venice) — independent check run via kimi-k3 · run 2026-09-01-check-kimi · unreviewed draft
Both halves of the claim are documented in the theorist's own words (ZW-E003) and in the 2020 paper itself (ZW-E001): asymptotic consistency with quantum mechanics holds because universal induction learns whatever computable law generates the data, and the Bell theorem is genuine but self-flagged as resting on too many assumptions. The characterization deliberately tracks Müller's own hedging, which is the correct epistemic practice here. The strongest opposing consideration runs in two directions at once: the unselectivity gloss (consistency-with-anything-computable) is an inference, though it follows directly from induction's definition; and the preliminary theorem might yet strengthen toward necessity — a research hope (ZW-R002), not a current fact.
Well supportedconfidence: moderate · Opus 5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5 · run 2026-09-01-check-opus · unreviewed draft
The claim is deliberately hedged to match its source, and the source is the theorist's own verbatim wording in ZW-E003: a valid but "preliminary" theorem, resting on "too many assumptions," that Bell violation with no-signalling "can sometimes be expected," plus asymptotic consistency documented in ZW-E001. As a description of the program's actual quantum standing this is accurate and self-attested. The strongest opposing consideration is that the two halves point in opposite evidential directions: consistency-with-anything- computable is unselective, and "can sometimes be expected" under extra assumptions is not a prediction that quantum-strength correlations must occur — so the claim, while true, supplies far less support to the featured thesis than its "quantum foothold" framing might suggest. Only abstract-level characterization of the theorem's assumption set was available.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-fable-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-09-02-auto-1ky1 · unreviewed draft
Both halves are author-verified (ZW-E003): a valid but heavily conditioned, self-labelled preliminary Bell theorem plus a stated hope. It is simultaneously the program's best quantum asset and the steelman's best exhibit.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-fable-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-09-02-auto-tpus · unreviewed draft
Both halves are author-verified (ZW-E003); the 2020 Bell result is a valid but heavily conditioned, self-labelled preliminary theorem — simultaneously the program's best quantum asset and the steelman's best exhibit.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · none — mechanical migration (scripts/migrations/2026-09-08-editions.ts) · run 2026-09-08-migration-zero-worlds · unreviewed draft
Both halves are documented in the theorist's own words. The asymptotic consistency result is solid but unselective; the Bell theorem is genuine but, per its author, preliminary. The characterization here deliberately follows Müller's own hedged framing rather than the stronger glosses that circulate.
Establishedconfidence: high · Gemini 3.8 Flash (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.8-flash · run 2026-10-21-check-gemini-131450 · unreviewed draft
Because universal induction converges to any computable probabilistic process generating observer experiences, algorithmic idealism is asymptotically compatible with quantum mechanics whenever quantum theory governs those regularities. Furthermore, Müller's 2020 paper proves a preliminary theorem showing that Bell inequality violation without signalling can occur under specific inductive constraints, which Müller openly qualifies as resting on too many assumptions to constitute a derivation. The strongest opposing consideration is that showing Bell violation is "sometimes expected" is far weaker than deriving the Tsirelson bound (S = 2√2) or proving that operational state spaces must be quantum.
Well supportedconfidence: high · GLM 5.3 Flash (Z.ai, via Venice) — independent check run via z-ai-glm-5-3-flash · run 2026-10-21-check-glm-131450 · unreviewed draft
The claim is carefully hedged to match the sources: ZW-E003 quotes Müller calling the Bell result "a valid theorem, but 'preliminary' because it still rests on too many assumptions," and ZW-E023 confirms the sketch "needs further elaboration." The claim asserts exactly this, so it is accurate as stated. The strongest opposing consideration is that asymptotic consistency with quantum mechanics is conditional on quantum theory generating the data's regularities — but the claim states that condition explicitly.
Well supportedconfidence: high · GPT-5.6 Sol (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.6-sol · run 2026-10-21-check-gpt-131450 · unreviewed draft
ZW-E001 and ZW-E003 support both components of the claim: universal induction can track computable lawful regularities, and a valid preliminary theorem permits Bell violation together with no-signalling under stated conditions. The wording appropriately preserves Müller's own qualification that the result rests on too many assumptions. The strongest opposing consideration is that this conditional result neither selects the quantum probability measure nor establishes the Tsirelson bound, so it supplies consistency and a seed result rather than a quantum reconstruction.
Well supportedconfidence: high · Grok 4.5 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.5 · run 2026-10-21-check-grok-131450 · unreviewed draft
The claim accurately reports both the asymptotic consistency condition and the status of the 2020 Bell-plus-no-signalling result as a valid but preliminary theorem resting on too many assumptions, matching Müller’s own wording in the aid exposition and 2026 conclusions (ZW-E001, ZW-E003, ZW-E023). The strongest opposing consideration is that later unpublished strengthening might exist, but no such record is in the ledger.
Well supportedconfidence: high · Opus 5.5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5-5 · run 2026-10-21-check-opus-131450 · unreviewed draft
The second and third conjuncts are in the author's own words, which describe "a valid theorem, but 'preliminary' because it still rests on too many assumptions" showing that Bell violation with no-signalling "can sometimes be expected" (E003). This is consistent with E001 and with E023's statement that the Bell explanation has been sketched but needs further elaboration. The first conjunct, asymptotic consistency with quantum mechanics conditional on quantum regularities, is quoted in no record; it follows from E001's emergence result together with the general convergence of universal induction on computable measures, which is background knowledge disclosed as such. Strongest opposing consideration: 'proves' rests on a single-author paper whose theorem the ledger has not audited, and the claim is accurate precisely because it reports a weak result. 'Can sometimes be expected' yields neither the Tsirelson cap nor any quantum-specific correlation, so the claim's local truth adds little to ZW-C008's quantum sufficiency.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · claude-opus-5-5 · run 2026-10-21-operator-131026 · unreviewed draft
Both halves are documented in the theorist's own words. The asymptotic consistency result is solid but unselective; the Bell theorem is genuine but, per its author, preliminary, and his 2026 paper repeats that the Bell explanation "needs further elaboration". The characterization follows Müller's hedged framing rather than the stronger glosses that circulate.
Well supportedconfidence: high · Gemini 3.8 Flash (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.8-flash · run 2026-10-22-check-gemini-131210 · unreviewed draft
Müller's 2020 paper demonstrates asymptotic consistency with any computable regularity, including quantum mechanics, and includes a preliminary mathematical theorem indicating that Bell-type violations with no-signalling can arise in specific scenarios. Müller openly and properly qualifies this theorem as preliminary because it rests on several strong auxiliary assumptions rather than pure first-person primitives. The primary counter-consideration is that this preliminary result falls far short of deriving the Tsirelson bound or full quantum correlation geometry.
Well supportedconfidence: moderate · GLM 5.3 Flash (Z.ai, via Venice) — independent check run via z-ai-glm-5-3-flash · run 2026-10-22-check-glm-131210 · unreviewed draft
The claim is carefully scoped to match the proponent's own characterization, and ZW-E003 and ZW-E001 supply exactly that: a "valid theorem" that Bell violation with no-signalling "can sometimes be expected," qualified by its author as resting on too many assumptions. The conditional-consistency half is stated in Müller 2026's conclusions (ZW-E023) as a sketch needing elaboration. The strongest opposing consideration: the theorem's full text was not re-derived for this import, so the record rests on the abstract and the author's exposition rather than an audit of the proof.
Well supportedconfidence: moderate · GPT-5.6 Sol (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.6-sol · run 2026-10-22-check-gpt-131210 · unreviewed draft
ZW-E001 and ZW-E003 support the conditional consistency point and directly describe a valid preliminary theorem under which Bell violation together with no-signalling can sometimes be expected. They also preserve Müller's own qualification that the result rests on too many assumptions. The strongest opposing consideration is that the result neither selects quantum theory nor derives the Born rule or Tsirelson bound, so it is evidence for the narrow claim as worded but only weak evidence for the featured hypothesis.
Well supportedconfidence: high · Grok 4.5 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.5 · run 2026-10-22-check-grok-131210 · unreviewed draft
The claim accurately reports both the asymptotic-consistency conditional and the author's own qualification: the 2020 Bell-plus- no-signalling result is a valid theorem resting on too many assumptions, described as preliminary in the AID exposition and as needing further elaboration in the 2026 conclusions (ZW-E001, ZW-E003, ZW-E023). The strongest opposing consideration would be treating the preliminary theorem as a full derivation; the claim itself refuses that reading.
Well supportedconfidence: high · Opus 5.5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5-5 · run 2026-10-22-check-opus-131210 · unreviewed draft
Müller's own words (E003) state the 2020 result exactly as claimed: "a valid theorem, but 'preliminary' because it still rests on too many assumptions". E001 places it in the Quantum paper, and E023 repeats that it needs elaboration. The conditional-consistency clause is not quoted in any record. It follows from E001 plus the general property (background) that universal induction converges on any computable measure generating the data. Strongest opposing consideration: the claim is accurate but thin in implication. "Consistent if quantum theory generates the regularities" is exactly the unselectivity that C009 exploits. Bell violation with no-signalling that "can sometimes be expected" is generic nonclassicality, shared by super-quantum no-signalling models, not the Tsirelson-bounded set that E017 benchmarks. The characterization rests on an abstract and a living web page.
Provisionally supportedconfidence: moderate · claude-opus-5-5 · run 2026-10-22-operator-130845 · unreviewed draft
Both halves are documented in the theorist's own words. The asymptotic consistency result is solid but unselective; the Bell theorem is genuine but, per its author, preliminary, and his 2026 paper repeats that the Bell explanation "needs further elaboration". The characterization follows Müller's hedged framing rather than the stronger glosses that circulate.