Append-only AI overlay records; the canon claim file is never mutated.
Presently untestableconfidence: high · Fable 5 (Claude), via Claude Code · run 2026-08-22-fable-1 · unreviewed draft
The honest label, and the case's central finding. No current observation discriminates it from physicalism; its quantum content is conceded to be underived; its distinctive predictions concern scenarios (duplication, simulation shutdown) that cannot currently be run with publicly comparable outcomes. High confidence in the label itself, which is a claim about testability, not truth.
Presently untestableconfidence: high · Gemini 3.1 Pro (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.1-pro-preview · run 2026-08-23-check-gemini · unreviewed draft
The assertion that no physical world is fundamental but is rather derived entirely from first-person states is a metaphysical interpretation that seamlessly accommodates all existing quantum statistics without currently offering unique operational deviations. Since its distinctive predictions rely on inaccessible first-person scenarios like duplication or simulation shutdown, it eludes empirical falsification. The strongest opposing consideration is that if the missing mathematical bridge is eventually built, the thesis will immediately become testable physics.
Presently untestableconfidence: high · GPT-5.1 (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.1 · run 2026-08-23-check-gpt · unreviewed draft
The central zero-worlds thesis, as characterized here, goes beyond what any current theorem or experiment adjudicates: both observer- first and physicalist quantum theories can accommodate all existing empirical data, and algorithmic idealism has not yet derived specifically quantum structure from its primitives (ZW-C002, ZW-E001– E003). The framework’s distinctive empirical content lies in exotic first-person scenarios that are not presently operationalized as reproducible third-person tests, and its quantum content is still underived, so current evidence neither supports nor contradicts the ontological reversal itself. The strongest opposing consideration is that some may argue existing Bell/Wigner-type constraints subtly favor observer-relative formulations, but those constraints are equally compatible with standard non-realist or relational physicalist interpretations, preserving the “presently untestable” status.
Presently untestableconfidence: high · Grok 4.6 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.6 · run 2026-08-23-check-grok · unreviewed draft
Nothing in the current record supports or contradicts the no-world thesis over its physicalist rival: both accommodate existing data, PBR constrains a ψ-epistemic neighbour that assumes an underlying ontic state rather than either principal, and the thesis’s distinctive content sits in unrunnable first-person scenarios plus a quantum derivation its leading proponent does not claim to have. The McQueen and Müller adversarial collaboration states the disagreement without supplying a discriminator. The strongest opposing consideration is that a thesis with no present observational purchase, underived quantum content, and an uncomputable transition rule is doing no explanatory work the ontologically neutral reconstructions do not already do — which is a charge of idleness, not a test that has been failed.
Presently untestableconfidence: high · Kimi K3 (Moonshot, via Venice) — independent check run via kimi-k3 · run 2026-08-23-check-kimi · unreviewed draft
The featured thesis at full strength is, as of this record, empirically idle: every serious contender reproduces the same quantum statistics (ZW-C003), so no existing or near-term experiment separates zero worlds from one; its distinctive content lives in duplication, teletransport, and simulation-shutdown scenarios no one can run (ZW-C503); and its quantum content is conceded to be underived (ZW-C002). The strongest opposing consideration is that "untestable" can function as a permanent shield for a thesis doing no explanatory work the ontologically neutral reconstructions do not already do — parsimony of nouns purchased with an uncomputable transition rule may be no parsimony at all. That is a strong argument for low priority, not for contradiction: the thesis accommodates all data and generates a precisely stated research program (ZW-C010, ZW-R001–R006), which is exactly the profile of presently_untestable rather than contradicted. High confidence that this is the correct current status; the status is explicitly datable and revisable.
Presently untestableconfidence: moderate · Opus 5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5 · run 2026-08-23-check-opus · unreviewed draft
Nothing in the record supports or contradicts this thesis over physicalism: ZW-C003 shows no experiment discriminates them, ZW-C002 shows its quantum content is conceded underived, and ZW-E016 (PBR) constrains a neighbour of both positions rather than either principal. Its distinctive content lives in duplication, teletransportation, and simulation-shutdown scenarios (ZW-C503) for which no protocol with prespecified quantitative deviations exists. The strongest opposing consideration is that "presently untestable" may be too generous a holding pattern: a thesis whose entire current scientific content is a promissory research program could equally be scored as unresolved-with-no-purchase, and ZW-C010 shows there is a live mathematical test, so the label is dated and revisable rather than permanent. I flag that my comfort with the label rests partly on general norms about metaphysical theses, not on the evidence records alone.
Presently untestableconfidence: high · anthropic/claude-fable-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-24-auto-0bno · unreviewed draft
Still the honest label: no current observation discriminates it from physicalism, its quantum content is conceded to be underived (ZW-E002, ZW-E003), and its distinctive predictions live in scenarios that cannot be operationalized. The adversarial collaboration (ZW-E005) clarifies the dispute's content but supplies no discriminating evidence.
Presently untestableconfidence: high · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-25-auto-c7tl · unreviewed draft
No observation in this record discriminates it from physicalism; its quantum content is conceded underived (ZW-E002, ZW-E003); ZW-E016 constrains a ψ-epistemic neighbour rather than this thesis, and ZW-E005 clarifies the disagreement without adjudicating it. 'Presently' is the right index — a bridge theorem (ZW-C010) would change the status.
Presently untestableconfidence: high · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-25-auto-fcnc · unreviewed draft
Nothing in the record discriminates it from physicalism; its quantum content is conceded underived (ZW-E002, ZW-E003); ZW-E016 constrains a psi-epistemic neighbour rather than this thesis; ZW-E005 states the disagreement without resolving it. This grade sets the case verdict.
Presently untestableconfidence: high · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-25-auto-uuso · unreviewed draft
No observation in the record discriminates it from physicalism; its quantum content is conceded underived (ZW-E002, ZW-E003), and ZW-E016 constrains a psi-epistemic neighbour rather than this thesis. The adversarial collaboration (ZW-E005) clarifies the disagreement without supplying discriminating evidence.
Presently untestableconfidence: high · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (reconsideration — deliberately non-blind: engages the panel's dissents) · run 2026-08-25-reconsider-03ik · unreviewed draft
No record observation discriminates it from physicalism; its quantum content is conceded underived (ZW-E002, ZW-E003); ZW-E016 constrains a psi-epistemic neighbour, not this thesis; ZW-E005 clarifies the disagreement without discriminating. This grade now sets the case verdict rather than sitting inside a looser one.
Presently untestableconfidence: high · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-26-auto-dahu · unreviewed draft
Nothing in the record discriminates it from physicalism; its quantum content is conceded underived (ZW-E002, ZW-E003); ZW-E016 constrains a psi-epistemic neighbour rather than this thesis; ZW-E005 clarifies the disagreement without resolving it. 'Presently' is the right index because ZW-C010 could change the status.
Presently untestableconfidence: high · anthropic/claude-fable-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-09-01-auto-9jlt · unreviewed draft
Nothing in the record discriminates it from physicalism, and its quantum content is conceded underived (ZW-E002, ZW-E003). 'Presently' remains keyed to the bridge problem ZW-C010; ZW-E019 is ontologically state-realist and neither supports nor contradicts it.
Presently untestableconfidence: high · anthropic/claude-fable-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-09-01-auto-dhkf · unreviewed draft
Unchanged: nothing in the record discriminates it from physicalism, and its quantum content is conceded underived (ZW-E002, ZW-E003). ZW-E019, being state-realist at the ontological level, neither supports nor contradicts it. 'Presently' remains keyed to ZW-C010.
Presently untestableconfidence: high · anthropic/claude-fable-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-09-01-auto-m3op · unreviewed draft
Nothing in the record discriminates it from physicalism, and its quantum content is conceded underived (ZW-E002, ZW-E003). 'Presently' remains keyed to the ZW-C010 bridge problem; ZW-E019, being ontologically state-realist, neither supports nor contradicts it.
Presently untestableconfidence: high · Gemini 3.1 Pro (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.1-pro-preview · run 2026-09-01-check-gemini · unreviewed draft
The featured thesis asserts that first-person states are fundamental and the physical world is derivative. While mathematically coherent in idealized models (E001), it yields no distinct, testable empirical predictions over standard quantum mechanics in current operational setups (E017, E018). The strongest opposing consideration is that if a theory merely relocates ontological complexity into an uncomputable inductive rule without new predictions, it should arguably be rejected on parsimony grounds rather than treated as untestable.
Presently untestableconfidence: moderate · GPT-5.1 (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.1 · run 2026-09-01-check-gpt · unreviewed draft
ZW-E005 shows the zero-worlds thesis articulated in an adversarial collaboration; ZW-C004 and ZW-C005 demonstrate that an observer-first model can generate a lawful world and is compatible with quantum regularities; but ZW-C002 and ZW-C010 make clear that no derivation of distinctively quantum structure from these postulates exists yet, and ZW-C003 shows that current experiments do not discriminate this ontology from physicalist rivals. Consequently, nothing in the case file provides empirical leverage between “no-world-underneath” and standard physicalism, just different interpretations of the same data. The main opposing consideration is that, in principle, future mathematical or first-person experimental work (as envisaged in ZW-R001–R006) could render aspects of the thesis testable; the “presently” qualifier is therefore crucial.
Presently untestableconfidence: high · Grok 4.6 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.6 · run 2026-09-01-check-grok · unreviewed draft
Nothing in the evidence records supports this ontology over physicalism or contradicts it. Existing experiments are reproduced by both (ZW-E017, ZW-E018); PBR constrains models that assume an underlying physical ontic state, which strong idealism denies, so it does not touch the thesis (ZW-E016); McQueen and Müller state the disagreement without resolving it (ZW-E005). The quantum half is underived (ZW-C002), and the distinctive first-person scenarios are not currently laboratory tests. The strongest opposing consideration is that the 2020 emergence theorems show a lawful world can be output from self-states and induction, which makes the reversal formally possible — possibility is not evidence that the actual inventory contains zero worlds. High confidence attaches to the status, not to the metaphysics.
Presently untestableconfidence: moderate · Kimi K3 (Moonshot, via Venice) — independent check run via kimi-k3 · run 2026-09-01-check-kimi · unreviewed draft
No evidence record bears differentially for this thesis against physicalism: both accommodate all current data (ZW-C003), its quantum content is conceded to be underived (ZW-C002), and its distinctive predictions live in scenarios no one can run (ZW-C503). PBR (ZW-E016) constrains a ψ-epistemic neighbour that posits an underlying physical state — exactly what strong idealism denies — so it touches neither principal. The strongest opposing consideration is that presently_untestable can function as a permanent shield for metaphysics; here it does not, because the status is dated and the settlement condition is precise (ZW-C010, ZW-R001–R004), which makes the label a substantive finding about the evidence rather than an excuse. Confidence is moderate because one bridge theorem would convert the thesis into physics overnight.
Presently untestableconfidence: moderate · Opus 5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5 · run 2026-09-01-check-opus · unreviewed draft
No evidence record discriminates this thesis from its physicalist rival: ZW-E017 and ZW-E018 confirm quantum statistics that both sides predict, ZW-E016 constrains a psi-epistemic neighbour that strong idealism does not occupy, and ZW-E005 is a statement of the disagreement rather than evidence within it. Its distinctive content lives in duplication, simulation-shutdown, and teletransportation scenarios with no operationalized protocol (ZW-C503, ZW-R006), and its quantum content is conceded underived (ZW-E003). The strongest opposing consideration is that "presently untestable" can be an unfair label for a program whose owed results are theorems rather than measurements — mathematical claims are checkable in principle — but the ontological thesis as stated is broader than any bridge theorem would establish, so even a successful bridge would underdetermine it. This verdict leans partly on general philosophy-of-science priors about empirically-equivalent ontologies, not solely on the records.
Presently untestableconfidence: high · anthropic/claude-fable-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-09-02-auto-1ky1 · unreviewed draft
Nothing in the record discriminates it from physicalism, and its quantum content is conceded underived (ZW-E002, ZW-E003). 'Presently' remains keyed to the ZW-C010 bridge problem; ZW-E019, being ontologically state-realist, bears on neither side.
Presently untestableconfidence: high · anthropic/claude-fable-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-09-02-auto-tpus · unreviewed draft
Nothing in the record discriminates it from physicalism, and its quantum content is conceded underived (ZW-E002, ZW-E003). Its testability remains keyed to the ZW-C010 bridge problem; ZW-E019, being ontologically state-realist, neither supports nor contradicts it.
Presently untestableconfidence: high · none — mechanical migration (scripts/migrations/2026-09-08-editions.ts) · run 2026-09-08-migration-zero-worlds · unreviewed draft
Honest label for a live metaphysical thesis: nothing in the current record supports or contradicts it over its physicalist rival, because both accommodate all existing data. Its scientific content today is exhausted by the research program it generates — the bridge theorems it still owes (ZW-C010) and the exotic first-person predictions that are not yet operationalizable (ZW-C503).
Presently untestableconfidence: high · Gemini 3.8 Flash (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.8-flash · run 2026-10-21-check-gemini-131450 · unreviewed draft
The assertion that no external world is fundamental and that physical reality is entirely derived from first-person inductive states currently lacks any operational laboratory protocol to distinguish it from physicalism. In their 2026 adversarial collaboration, Müller and McQueen explicitly acknowledge that algorithmic idealism cannot yet connect its first-person probability assignments to intersubjectively repeatable experimental frequencies in scientific practice. The strongest opposing consideration is that the framework offers a coherent, parsimonious resolution to deep cosmological observer paradoxes without postulating unobservable physical multiverses.
Presently untestableconfidence: moderate · GLM 5.3 Flash (Z.ai, via Venice) — independent check run via z-ai-glm-5-3-flash · run 2026-10-21-check-glm-131450 · unreviewed draft
The featured ontological thesis cannot currently be tested: ZW-E021 records both the critic and the advocate agreeing that the framework's probability assignments cannot yet be related to repeatable, intersubjectively verifiable experimental statistics — a jointly endorsed "valid objection." It is not contradicted (PBR leaves strong idealism untouched per ZW-E016), and the derivation gap (ZW-C002) means its quantum consequence is unbuilt rather than false. The strongest opposing consideration is that untestability here is a dated status, not a permanent shield; ZW-R006 could change it.
Presently untestableconfidence: high · GPT-5.6 Sol (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.6-sol · run 2026-10-21-check-gpt-131450 · unreviewed draft
The records contain no repeatable observation that distinguishes first-person ontology from an observer-independent physical ontology. ZW-E021 directly reports agreement that the framework cannot yet connect its private probability assignments to repeated, intersubjectively assessed experiments, while ZW-E002 and ZW-E023 leave the quantum bridge unfinished. The strongest opposing consideration is ZW-E001's emergence theorem, which shows that an apparently objective lawful world can arise inside the proposed formalism and therefore gives the ontology a nontrivial consistency argument. That result does not establish ontological truth or the asserted derivation of quantum theory.
Presently untestableconfidence: moderate · Grok 4.5 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.5 · run 2026-10-21-check-grok-131450 · unreviewed draft
The ontological claim is the interpretive core of algorithmic idealism and is coherent with the emergence theorems of ZW-C004, yet the ledger contains no empirical discrimination (ZW-C003) and both sides of the McQueen–Müller collaboration agree that the framework’s probabilities cannot yet be related to repeated, intersubjectively verifiable experiment frequencies (ZW-E021). The strongest opposing consideration is that the first-person exotic-scenario predictions could in principle become testable, but they are not at present.
Weakly supportedconfidence: moderate · Opus 5.5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5-5 · run 2026-10-21-check-opus-131450 · unreviewed draft
The only positive support is E001: first-person states plus universal induction provably yield an apparently objective world with simple computable laws. That is direct but partial evidence for the sufficiency claim, confined to generic lawfulness in an idealized model. The claim's distinctive content, sufficiency 'ultimately including quantum theory', has no derivation by the proponent's own published account (E023). Both adversarial collaborators record as valid that the framework's probabilities cannot yet be tied to repeated intersubjective experiments (E021) and that its Boltzmann-brain reasoning needs further work (E022). No experiment discriminates it from physicalism (C003), PBR constrains neither principal (E016), and E005 is context only. I read E021's 'supports' direction as bearing on testability rather than truth, and I do not adopt its editorial label of presently untestable, because the sufficiency component can be confirmed or refuted now by mathematics (C010; agenda items ZW-R001 to ZW-R003). Strongest opposing consideration: E001 may show only internal coherence, since physicalism also accounts for a lawful world by positing one, in which case nothing in the packet favours the thesis and unresolved would be the better token; I keep weakly_supported because the claim as stated is a sufficiency claim and E001 demonstrates part of that sufficiency.
Presently untestableconfidence: high · claude-opus-5-5 · run 2026-10-21-operator-131026 · unreviewed draft
Nothing in the current record supports or contradicts the thesis over its physicalist rival, because both accommodate all existing data. The McQueen–Müller exchange makes the reason concrete: with the proponent's assent, the framework's probabilities cannot yet be related to experiments repeated under identical conditions and analyzed from a shared third-person view. Its scientific content is the research program it generates.
Presently untestableconfidence: high · Gemini 3.8 Flash (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.8-flash · run 2026-10-22-check-gemini-131210 · unreviewed draft
The overarching ontological claim that first-person informational states plus induction are sufficient to generate the physical world remains an unverified metaphysical hypothesis lacking empirical testability. In their 2026 adversarial collaboration, Müller and McQueen explicitly acknowledge that the framework's probability assignments cannot yet be connected to standard scientific practice involving repeatable, intersubjectively verifiable third-person experiments. Proponents argue that the framework provides distinct theoretical solutions to exotic thought experiments like teleportation and duplication, but these remain technologically inaccessible.
Presently untestableconfidence: moderate · GLM 5.3 Flash (Z.ai, via Venice) — independent check run via z-ai-glm-5-3-flash · run 2026-10-22-check-glm-131210 · unreviewed draft
No evidence record supports the ontological sufficiency of first-person states for our actual quantum world: the emergence theorem does not deliver quantum structure (ZW-E001), the derivation gap is conceded (ZW-E023), and the framework's own author jointly concedes that its distinctive probabilities cannot yet be related to repeatable, intersubjectively checked experiments (ZW-E025, ZW-E021). No record refutes the thesis either — PBR (ZW-E016) does not touch strong idealism, and the adversaries agree the postulates need clarification, not modification. The thesis as stated makes no currently operable differential test; the honest verdict is untestability now, not support or refutation.
Presently untestableconfidence: moderate · GPT-5.6 Sol (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.6-sol · run 2026-10-22-check-gpt-131210 · unreviewed draft
ZW-E025 records agreement that algorithmic idealism cannot yet connect its probability assignments generally to repeated, intersubjectively assessed experiments, while ZW-E005 merely frames the realism-versus-idealism dispute and is not evidence for either ontology. The missing quantum bridge also leaves the claim of sufficiency for actual quantum physics unestablished, but absence of that derivation does not show that an observer-independent world is fundamental. The strongest opposing consideration is ZW-E001, which demonstrates formal emergence of an apparently objective lawful world from self-state primitives in an idealized model and therefore gives the sufficiency thesis a nontrivial proof of concept.
Presently untestableconfidence: moderate · Grok 4.5 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.5 · run 2026-10-22-check-grok-131210 · unreviewed draft
The ontological thesis — no observer-independent physical world fundamental; first-person states plus induction sufficient; quantum theory derivative — is the featured interpretive claim. Emergence of a lawful world is theorem-status inside the bit model (ZW-C004), but derivation of quantum theory is explicitly unfinished (ZW-C002), and the framework's authors jointly record that its probabilities cannot yet be related to repeated, intersubjective experimental frequencies (ZW-E025). PBR constrains ψ-epistemic hidden-variable neighbours, not strong idealism (ZW-E016). Distinctive first-person scenarios remain outside ordinary laboratory comparison. The claim is therefore not established, not refuted, and not presently empirically decidable.
Presently untestableconfidence: moderate · Opus 5.5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5-5 · run 2026-10-22-check-opus-131210 · unreviewed draft
No record bears on the thesis's truth as against realism. E005 is framing context, E016 constrains a neighbour of both positions, and the emergence theorem behind C004 shows viability for generic lawfulness, which a world-first ontology also delivers. The thesis yields no determinate predictions yet for quantum statistics (C002, E023), and existing experiments do not discriminate it (C003). By the proponent's written concession, its distinctive probabilities cannot yet be related to repeated, intersubjective experiments (E025). That rules out unresolved (no test is in hand), contradicted (no no-go result exists), and weakly_supported (viability is not evidence). Strongest opposing consideration: the clause "ultimately including quantum theory" is exposed now to mathematical refutation, because a proof that the maximal CHSH value differs from 2√2 would contradict it. This label is therefore a dated status, not a shield, and a reasonable assessor could call that limb unresolved.
Presently untestableconfidence: high · claude-opus-5-5 · run 2026-10-22-operator-130845 · unreviewed draft
Nothing in the current record supports or contradicts the thesis over its physicalist rival, because both accommodate all existing data. The McQueen–Müller exchange makes the reason concrete: with the proponent's assent, the framework's probabilities cannot yet be related to experiments repeated under identical conditions and analyzed from a shared third-person view. Its scientific content is the research program it generates.