Supports· strongMPI-E003
Nailing Jelly: two preregistered consensus-protocol replications fail
- what the source states
- Following a consensus protocol deposited on OSF before commencement, two independent replications of the 2020 experiment were run with the same equipment: 64 participants (post-hoc power 0.88) and 40 participants (power 0.69), analyzed by a nonparametric randomization test with 10,000 iterations. "Neither of the two experiments was significant." The authors conclude "that the matrix experiment in and of itself is not a replicable paradigm in PSI research."
- what we infer
- The proponents' own team, on the model's own chosen benchmark, under a protocol they froze in advance — the cleanest confirmation that the excess-correlation effect does not replicate on demand. Note the interpretive move that follows in the same abstract: the failure is read as "likely part of the systematic nature of such effects," which is the falsifiability crux (MPI-C010) in action.
- limitations
- Power for the second replication was low (0.69); the first was adequately powered.
- Standard power analysis is itself contested under a model that denies stable effects — the authors provide theirs only post hoc.