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Position: LLMs can't jump

Zahavy, Tom; Google DeepMind · 2026

AI-verified citationSRC-ZAHAVY-2026
identifier / locator
Proceedings of the 43rd International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2026), position paper track; poster 67091
url
https://icml.cc/virtual/2026/poster/67091
verification note
Verified against the official ICML 2026 virtual-conference page (2026-08-22 run), which carries the full abstract as accepted. Confirmed: sole author Tom Zahavy (Google DeepMind), position-paper track, accepted as a poster. The abstract's own framing is that generative AI "has mastered Induction... and is rapidly conquering Deduction" but "lacks the mechanism for Abduction," and that an LLM "could plausibly execute the deductive phase of proving theorems from established premises" while being "structurally incapable of the abductive 'Jump' required to formulate those premises."
reliability notes
  • A position paper, explicitly argumentative rather than an empirical result — its own venue classifies it that way, and this case treats it as an argument, not a finding.
  • Its evidential interest is its provenance: the author co-authored AlphaProof and the AlphaZero work that dissolved Penrose's own composed chess position, so this is a concession about the location of the gap from inside the laboratory closing it.
  • Peer-reviewed through ICML's public OpenReview process. Secondary reporting indicates the author softened a conclusion from 'confirms' to 'suggests' during review; this project did not read the review thread directly and does not rely on that detail.

Evidence drawn from this source

Qualifies· moderateORCH-E025

A DeepMind researcher argues the systems deduce but cannot abduct

what the source states
The position paper argues that generative AI "has mastered Induction... and is rapidly conquering Deduction" but "lacks the mechanism for Abduction." Its stated claim is that an LLM "could plausibly execute the deductive phase of proving theorems from established premises" while being "structurally incapable of the abductive 'Jump' required to formulate those premises."
what we infer
The most interesting item in this theme, because of where it comes from: the author co-authored AlphaProof and the AlphaZero work, so this is a concession about the location of the gap made from inside the laboratory doing the closing — not a defensive move by Penrose's supporters. It supplies the critics' own strongest counterargument, and it maps almost exactly onto the framework/result distinction that Penrose's defenders press. Filed as `qualifies` rather than `supports` because it is an argument in a position-paper track, not a measurement: it changes how the AI results should be read without adding or removing any fact.
limitations
  • A position paper — explicitly argumentative, so classified by its own venue as a viewpoint rather than a finding.
  • One researcher's framework; the induction/deduction/abduction taxonomy is a philosophical choice, not an empirical result.
  • Makes a structural claim about current architectures, not a claim about physical non-computability — it does not vindicate Penrose's argument, only complicates its refutation.