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The Aeon Before Ours · claim CCC-C004 · Observation rung · The Hawking-points claim

The Planck and WMAP maps contain anomalous compact regions of raised temperature ("Hawking points") with angular radii of 0.03–0.04 radians and a size cut-off, at 99.98% statistical confidence.

The claim that compact hot spots of a set size are too frequent to be chance. Correcting for the spot sizes that were tried removes almost all of the significance.

AI-extractedorigin: Verification batch 2026-08-22 — An, Meissner, Nurowski & Penrose 2020 (MNRAS); full text read

credibility — is the claim itself true?

Contradicted

The 99.98% was quoted for the best ring size; marginalizing over the sizes searched gives 87%, about 1σ (CCC-E010). A third of the excess comes from single points (CCC-E054). López et al.'s detector, which recovers 95% of synthetic CCC spots, finds no significant population (CCC-E011), and HawkingNet finds none (CCC-E012). Instrument noise is negligible at these scales (CCC-E028), so the Planck–WMAP co-location in CCC-E009 shows the spots are on the sky, not where they came from. CCC-E023: no search was preregistered.

diagnosticity — how much does it decide the thesis?

high

The program's strongest recent anomaly claim; its failure removes the second pillar of the attribution.

Evidence

Supports (2)

Supports· moderateCCC-E009

An, Meissner, Nurowski & Penrose 2020: Hawking points at 99.98%, co-located in Planck and WMAP

what the source states
The paper reports "numerous previously unobserved anomalous circular spots, of significantly raised temperature" with angular radii between 0.03 and 0.04 radians and "a clear cut-off at that size," found "at a 99.98% confidence level" against 10,000 simulations; "the five strongest anomalous regions of the Planck map were found to occupy precisely the same locations as five of the strongest locations found in the WMAP data," and the authors argue that "Planck and WMAP have very different noise properties and it seems exceedingly unlikely that the observed presence of anomalous points in the same directions on both maps may come entirely from the noise."
what we infer
The program's strongest published claim, in a mainstream astronomy journal. Two components should be weighed separately: the headline significance (which Jow & Scott's marginalization removes, CCC-E010) and the cross-instrument co-location of the top spots (which survives as an unexplained observation — though co-location is expected if the spots are real features of the shared sky, artifact or not, since both instruments observe the same CMB).
limitations
  • The ring size defining the statistic was selected after inspecting the data — the specific defect the independent reanalysis corrects.
  • All four authors are CCC proponents.
  • Cross-map co-location distinguishes sky features from instrument noise, but not previous-aeon signals from ΛCDM fluctuations or data artifacts present in both maps.
An, D. (2020)AI-verified citation
Supports· strongCCC-E023

Study table: every CCC signature search invented its own signal model; the one derived fragment is a 2025 unrefereed preprint

what the source states
Across twelve search rows spanning 2010-2024, on both sides, the operative signal model — statistic, size window, thresholds, expected abundance — was supplied by the searchers, never derived from CCC (Hajian 2011 states the gap outright; Bodnia et al. 2024 make it the methodological synthesis). Each proponent significance (up to 6-sigma circles; 99.7% and 99.4% rings; 99.98% Hawking points) met an independent reanalysis that reproduced the features and dissolved the significance by varying a free choice the claim had fixed (ring radii, ellipticity procedure, spot-size marginalization: 99.98% falling to 87%). The only CCC-derived signal fragment — a mass-temperature relation — appears in a 2025 unrefereed preprint no search has yet used.
what we infer
CCC-C011 is the literature's own record, not an editorial judgment: no reported significance on either side was produced under a protocol fixed before the data were examined. The table neither establishes nor refutes the circles or Hawking points; it establishes that the dispute's recurring mechanism is an under-specified signal model, and that the preregistered search this case proposes (CCC-R001) now has exactly one derived fragment to bind to.
limitations
  • Two rows rest on ledger verification notes that characterize results partly through later papers of the same program, as those notes record.

Undermines (3)

Undermines· strongCCC-E010

Jow & Scott 2020: marginalize over ring size and the 99.98% becomes 87%

what the source states
"We investigate recent claims for a detection of 'Hawking points'... at the 99.98% confidence level. We find that, after marginalization over the size of the rings, an excess is detected in Planck satellite maps at only an 87% confidence level (i.e., little more than 1σ). Therefore, we conclude that there is no statistically significant evidence for the presence of Hawking points in the CMB."
what we infer
A textbook look-elsewhere correction: the proponents searched a family of ring sizes but quoted significance for the best one. This is the cleanest single demonstration in the case that the headline numbers live in the analysis choices — the data are unchanged; only the accounting for the search is.
limitations
  • Does not address the Planck–WMAP co-location argument.
  • An 87% excess is a residue, not a zero; the record honestly leaves ~1σ on the table.
Jow, D. L. (2020)AI-verified citation
Undermines· moderateCCC-E011

López et al. 2022: purpose-built ring detector finds no significant structures

what the source states
A ring-detection method validated on an artificial dataset of Hawking points constructed according to CCC ("we were able to retrieve 95% of ring-like anomalies from it") was applied to Planck maps and compared against ΛCDM simulations: "Even though no significant ring-like structures were observed, we report the largest excess of HP candidates found at α = 1% significance level for the analyzed sky maps (CMB at 70GHz, SEVEM, SMICA, and Commander-Ruler)."
what we infer
An independent group that built a detector demonstrably capable of finding CCC-style Hawking points (95% retrieval on synthetic signals) and then failed to find a significant population in the real sky — which answers the objection that critics' methods might simply be insensitive to the predicted signal. The honestly reported 1%-level candidate excess is the kind of residue only a preregistered follow-up can adjudicate.
limitations
  • The synthetic training signals encode one specific reading of CCC's qualitative prediction; a different profile assumption could change sensitivity.
López, M. (2022)AI-verified citation
Undermines· strongCCC-E012

Bodnia et al. 2024: few-pixel spots manufacture the signatures; nulls at full resolution

what the source states
A maximum-resolution search of Planck and WMAP data: "We find that spots consisting of a few unusually bright (high-temperature) or dark (low-temperature) pixels, erroneously lead to regions with many low-variance circles, and consequently sets of near-concentric low-variance circles, when applying the search criteria used in previous work. After removing those spots from the data, no statistically significant low-variance circles can be found." HawkingNet, a ResNet18-based search, likewise finds no significant Hawking points, and the authors state that spots "with a magnitude in the range from 100 to 400 µK amplitude and spatial Gaussian extend between 0.7 and 1.2 degrees... can be ruled out." They add: "The absence of such statistically-significant distinct features in the currently available CMB data does not disprove the CCC model, but implies that higher resolution CMB data and/or refined CCC based predictions are needed."
what we infer
The most consequential record in the case: it does not merely fail to confirm the signatures, it identifies the generating mechanism for false positives under the proponents' own criterion (anomalous few-pixel spots inflating the local baseline variance) and publishes open-source code. It also models the epistemics this site asks for — an explicit statement of what its null does and does not establish, and a call for quantitative predictions (taken up as CCC-R005).
limitations
  • The ruled-out Hawking-point amplitude/size box is specific to the assumed Gaussian profile; fainter or differently shaped imprints are unconstrained.
  • The artifact diagnosis explains false circles around anomalous spots; it does not by itself account for every concentric family reported earlier.
Bodnia, E. (2024)AI-verified citation

Qualifies (1)

Qualifies· moderateCCC-E054

Jow & Scott 2020 §3: a third of the Hawking-point excess at the claimed scales comes from the single most significant point — part 1

what the source states
Recomputing A⁻ at the scales (0.01, 0.02) and (0.01, 0.03) while omitting the single point with the highest |â| gives A⁻(0.01,0.02) = 5.50 and A⁻(0.01,0.03) = 4.13, so "about a third of the signal at these scales comes from the single most significant points".
what we infer
Independently of the look-elsewhere correction, the reported excess is dominated by two individual features; this is a distinct fragility from the 99.98%→87% marginalization already recorded in CCC-E010 and is consistent with the few-feature dependence Bodnia et al. later diagnosed (CCC-E012).
limitations
  • Computed on Planck 2018 SMICA, whereas An et al. used 2015 data; Jow & Scott note minor location/rank differences between the analyses.
Jow, D. L. (2020)AI-verified citation

Context (1)

Context· weakCCC-E028

Jow & Scott 2020 §2: instrumental noise does not contribute significantly to the Hawking-point signal

what the source states
The source states that 'adding the Planck half-difference maps as an estimate of the noise to the simulations did not alter the estimated probability distributions', so the authors 'conclude that instrumental noise does not contribute significantly to the HP signal at the scales we are considering'.
what we infer
Bears on the cross-map (WMAP/Planck) co-location argument that the article leaves standing: if noise is negligible at Hawking-point scales, any strong feature of the CMB signal must appear in both instruments under every hypothesis, ΛCDM included, so co-location establishes the spots are on the sky and nothing further. I rate this weak toward CCC-C004 because it does not touch the significance number itself.
limitations
  • Jow & Scott do not themselves discuss the WMAP co-location; the inference about it is mine.
  • Direction set to "context" (from "qualifies") by the second reader (claude-sonnet-5, 2026-09-10, run 2026-09-10-verify-ccc-192550, verify-v5) at intake: The quoted passage only rules out instrumental noise as a confound in estimating the probability distribution of gradient values; it does not bear on whether the 99.98% confidence detection of Hawking points holds up, which is what CCC-C004 asserts. It neither supports nor limits the specific confidence-level claim, so it functions as background methodological context rather than a qualification of the claim's content.
Jow, D. L. (2020)AI-verified citation

strongest unresolved objection

The 87% residue and López et al.'s 1%-level candidate excess are not zero, and the two-instrument co-location of the strongest spots stands (though it is expected for any real sky feature).

what would change our mind

  • A search with a spot profile fixed in advance from CCC that finds an excess after look-elsewhere correction
  • Independent confirmation of the 2025 mass–temperature relation on a preregistered spot sample

research that would move this claim

Assessment history

Append-only AI overlay records; the canon claim file is never mutated.

Contradictedconfidence: moderate · Fable (Claude), via Cursor · run 2026-08-22-fable-1 · unreviewed draft

The 99.98% figure does not survive marginalization over the in-sample ring-size choice (87%), and two independent searches with demonstrated sensitivity find nothing, one excluding the claimed amplitude/size box outright. Confidence stays moderate rather than high because the cross-map co-location of the strongest spots remains specifically unaddressed.

Contradictedconfidence: high · Gemini 3.1 Pro (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.1-pro-preview · run 2026-08-23-check-gemini · unreviewed draft

The flagship 99.98% confidence claim was dismantled by Jow & Scott, who demonstrated that marginalizing over the post-hoc selection of ring size drops the significance to a statistically unremarkable 87% (roughly 1σ). Subsequent independent searches using machine learning found no surviving signal. The strongest opposing consideration is that the top spots strictly co-locate across independent WMAP and Planck datasets, proving they are real sky features rather than isolated instrument noise.

Contradictedconfidence: high · GPT-5.1 (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.1 · run 2026-08-23-check-gpt · unreviewed draft

While An, Meissner, Nurowski & Penrose report Hawking points at 99.98% confidence, Jow & Scott show that this figure depends on fixing the ring size after inspecting the data; when one properly marginalizes over the tested sizes, the excess falls to 87%, equivalent to about 1σ and not statistically significant. López et al. then build a dedicated ring detector that recovers synthetic CCC signals with high efficiency but finds no significant excess in Planck maps, and Bodnia et al. use a machine-learning approach plus artifact screening to find no signal and to rule out a stated range of plausible Hawking-spot amplitudes. The strongest proponent consideration is the Planck–WMAP co-location of a handful of the strongest spots, which demonstrates that those spots are not instrument-specific noise; however, co-location alone does not restore statistical significance under a proper null and is fully compatible with ΛCDM fluctuations or shared sky-fixed artifacts.

Contradictedconfidence: high · Grok 4.6 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.6 · run 2026-08-23-check-grok · unreviewed draft

Jow and Scott 2020 show that the 99.98 percent figure is the best-size result after the ring radius was chosen by inspection; marginalizing over the family of sizes searched leaves an 87 percent (about 1σ) excess. López et al. 2022, with a detector that recovers 95 percent of synthetic CCC spots, find no significant population, and Bodnia et al. 2024 rule out Gaussian-profile spots of 100–400 µK at 0.7–1.2 degrees and trace the strongest candidates to anomalous pixels. The strongest opposing consideration is the Planck–WMAP co-location of the five strongest spots, which no critic has specifically dismantled and which shows the spots are on the sky rather than in one instrument — but co-location is expected for any real shared-sky feature, artifact or fluctuation, and does not restore the headline significance.

Contradictedconfidence: high · Kimi K3 (Moonshot, via Venice) — independent check run via kimi-k3 · run 2026-08-23-check-kimi · unreviewed draft

The headline 99.98% does not survive independent scrutiny: Jow & Scott (CCC-E010) show it was quoted for the ring size chosen after inspection, and marginalizing over the searched sizes leaves an 87% (~1σ) excess. López et al. (CCC-E011) built a detector that recovers 95% of synthetic CCC spots and found no significant population; Bodnia et al. (CCC-E012) found no significant Hawking points, excluded Gaussian-profile spots of 100–400 µK at 0.7–1.2°, and traced the strongest candidates to anomalous pixels. The strongest opposing consideration is the Planck–WMAP co-location of the five strongest spots, which no critic has specifically dismantled — but co-location is expected for any real feature of the shared sky, artifact or ΛCDM fluctuation, so it shows the spots are on the sky rather than in the instruments without showing they are pre-cosmic. The claim as stated, including its significance figure, is contradicted.

Contradictedconfidence: high · Opus 5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5 · run 2026-08-23-check-opus · unreviewed draft

The headline number does not survive its own look-elsewhere correction: marginalizing over the ring sizes actually searched takes 99.98% to 87% (~1σ), a correction that requires no new data and no contested ensemble. Two further independent searches return nulls, one with a detector demonstrably able to recover 95% of synthetic CCC spots, the other ruling out Gaussian-profile spots of 100–400 µK at 0.7–1.2° and tracing the strongest candidates to individual anomalous pixels. The strongest opposing consideration is the co-location of the five strongest Planck spots with five of the strongest WMAP spots, which no critic has specifically dismantled — but co-location is expected for any genuine sky feature, including a shared foreground or data artifact, and so does not by itself restore statistical anomalousness.

Contradictedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-fable-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-24-auto-aufg · unreviewed draft

The 99.98% figure does not survive marginalization over the in-sample ring-size choice (CCC-E010), and two independent searches with demonstrated sensitivity find nothing (CCC-E011, CCC-E012). CCC-E022 elaborates the spots' predicted properties but does not engage these statistical critiques, so the verdict stands; confidence stays moderate because the Planck–WMAP co-location (CCC-E009) remains specifically unanswered.

Contradictedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-fable-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-24-auto-px56 · unreviewed draft

The 99.98% figure does not survive marginalization over the in-sample ring-size choice (CCC-E010), and two independent searches with demonstrated sensitivity find no significant population (CCC-E011, CCC-E012). CCC-E022 elaborates predicted spot properties but does not engage the statistical critiques; confidence stays moderate because the Planck–WMAP co-location of the top spots (CCC-E009) remains specifically unanswered.

Contradictedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-25-auto-83k7 · unreviewed draft

The 99.98% does not survive marginalization over the in-sample ring-size choice (CCC-E010), and two independent searches with demonstrated sensitivity find no significant population (CCC-E011, CCC-E012). Confidence stays moderate because the Planck–WMAP co-location of the strongest spots (CCC-E009) remains specifically unanswered, and CCC-E022 elaborates spot properties without engaging the statistics.

Contradictedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-25-auto-p1qk · unreviewed draft

The 99.98% does not survive marginalization over the in-sample ring-size choice (CCC-E010), and two independent searches with demonstrated sensitivity find no significant population (CCC-E011, CCC-E012). Confidence remains moderate rather than high because the Planck–WMAP co-location of the strongest spots (CCC-E009) is still specifically unanswered, and CCC-E022 elaborates spot properties without engaging the statistics.

Contradictedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-25-auto-vwu2 · unreviewed draft

The 99.98% does not survive marginalization over the in-sample ring-size choice (CCC-E010), and two independent searches with demonstrated sensitivity find no significant population (CCC-E011, CCC-E012). Confidence stays moderate because the Planck–WMAP co-location of the strongest spots (CCC-E009) remains specifically unanswered and CCC-E022 elaborates spot properties without engaging the statistics.

Contradictedconfidence: high · Gemini 3.1 Pro (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.1-pro-preview · run 2026-08-25-check-gemini · unreviewed draft

The initial claim of 99.98% confidence for Hawking points relies on a basic statistical error involving look-elsewhere effects. As Jow and Scott demonstrated, marginalizing over the post-hoc selection of ring size reduces the significance to roughly 87% (1σ), and subsequent high-resolution artifact screening by Bodnia et al. removes any significant remnant. The strongest opposing evidence is the unexplained cross-map co-location of the top spot candidates in both Planck and WMAP data, indicating they are real features of the shared sky rather than instrument noise.

Contradictedconfidence: high · GPT-5.1 (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.1 · run 2026-08-25-check-gpt · unreviewed draft

The 99.98% Hawking-point significance reported by An et al. is sharply reduced by Jow & Scott once the look-elsewhere effect over ring size is properly handled; the excess drops to ~87% (about 1σ), which is statistically unremarkable. López et al. apply a purpose-built detector that recovers synthetic CCC-like spots with high efficiency yet find no significant excess in Planck data, and Bodnia et al. both trace strong candidates to few-pixel artifacts and rule out spots with the claimed amplitudes and sizes over a broad range. The strongest opposing consideration is the cross-map co-location of the brightest anomalous spots in Planck and WMAP, but co-location is expected for any genuine sky feature—ΛCDM fluctuations or shared systematics—and, by itself, does not restore a high significance anomaly.

Contradictedconfidence: high · Grok 4.6 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.6 · run 2026-08-25-check-grok · unreviewed draft

Jow and Scott showed that the 99.98% figure was quoted for the best ring size after inspection; marginalizing over the family of sizes searched leaves an 87% (about 1σ) excess. López et al. 2022, using a detector that recovered 95% of synthetic CCC spots, found no significant population, and Bodnia et al. 2024 ruled out Gaussian-profile spots of 100–400 µK at 0.7–1.2° and traced the strongest candidates to anomalous pixels. The strongest opposing consideration is the Planck–WMAP co-location of the five strongest spots, which shows the candidates are on the sky rather than in one instrument's noise — though co-location is also expected for ordinary shared-sky CMB fluctuations and shared map artifacts.

Contradictedconfidence: high · Kimi K3 (Moonshot, via Venice) — independent check run via kimi-k3 · run 2026-08-25-check-kimi · unreviewed draft

Jow & Scott's marginalization over the in-sample-optimized ring size collapses the headline 99.98% to 87% — roughly one sigma — on unchanged data, which is the cleanest demonstration in the case that the significance lived in the analysis choices (CCC-E010). Two further independent searches then find nothing: López et al. built a detector that recovers 95% of synthetic CCC-style spots and found no significant population in Planck maps (CCC-E011), and Bodnia et al.'s HawkingNet rules out Gaussian-profile spots of 100–400 µK at 0.7–1.2° while tracing the strongest candidates to anomalous individual pixels (CCC-E012). The strongest opposing consideration is the Planck–WMAP co-location of the five strongest spots, which no critic has specifically dismantled; but co-location only shows the spots are in the shared sky rather than in one instrument, and both instruments observe the same ΛCDM fluctuations and (per Bodnia) the same few-pixel anomalies, so it cannot presently carry the anomaly claim.

Contradictedconfidence: high · Opus 5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5 · run 2026-08-25-check-opus · unreviewed draft

The headline 99.98% was computed for the ring size that performed best in-sample; Jow & Scott's marginalization over the searched family of sizes reduces the excess to 87%, roughly 1σ, using the same data. Two further independent searches found nothing significant, and one of them (López et al.) had first demonstrated 95% retrieval of synthetic CCC-style Hawking points, which answers the charge that critical pipelines are simply insensitive; Bodnia et al. additionally exclude Gaussian spots of 100–400 µK at 0.7–1.2° and trace the strongest candidates to individual anomalous pixels. The strongest surviving proponent point is the co-location of the five strongest spots across Planck and WMAP, which no critic has specifically dismantled — but co-location is expected for any real sky feature or any shared-map artifact, so it discriminates instrument noise from sky structure, not previous-aeon signals from ΛCDM fluctuations.

Contradictedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-26-auto-pbbj · unreviewed draft

The 99.98% does not survive marginalization over the in-sample ring-size choice (CCC-E010), and two independent searches with demonstrated sensitivity find no significant population (CCC-E011, CCC-E012). Confidence stays moderate because the Planck–WMAP co-location of the strongest spots (CCC-E009) is still specifically unanswered.

Contradictedconfidence: high · Gemini 3.1 Pro (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.1-pro-preview · run 2026-08-26-check-gemini · unreviewed draft

The headline 99.98% confidence level is a direct artifact of failing to correct for the look-elsewhere effect; marginalizing over the searched ring sizes reduces the significance to a statistically unremarkable 87% (roughly 1-sigma). Subsequent searches with purpose-built detectors and artifact screening found no significant populations. The strongest surviving proponent argument is the cross-instrument co-location of the strongest spots in Planck and WMAP, though this only proves they are in the sky, not that they are anomalous.

Contradictedconfidence: high · GPT-5.1 (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.1 · run 2026-08-26-check-gpt · unreviewed draft

The 99.98% Hawking-point significance in An et al. (CCC-E009) is shown by Jow & Scott to collapse to an 87% (~1σ) excess once one correctly marginalizes over the searched ring sizes (CCC-E010), and two further independent searches—López et al., with a CCC-calibrated ring detector, and Bodnia et al., with a deep network—find no statistically significant Hawking-point population, with Bodnia et al. explicitly ruling out spots of the quoted amplitudes and scales and tying candidate regions to a few anomalous pixels (CCC-E011, E012). The strongest counter-consideration is the cross-map co-location of the brightest spots in WMAP and Planck and the 2025 Meissner–Penrose modeling of a mass–temperature relation, but these presuppose a genuine excess and do not restore the underlying statistical case once look-elsewhere and artifact issues are addressed.

Contradictedconfidence: high · Grok 4.6 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.6 · run 2026-08-26-check-grok · unreviewed draft

The 99.98% figure does not survive a look-elsewhere correction: Jow and Scott show that marginalizing over the family of ring sizes actually searched drops the excess to 87%, about 1σ. Two further independent searches — López et al., with a detector that recovers 95% of synthetic CCC spots, and Bodnia et al., with HawkingNet plus pixel screening — find no significant population and can rule out Gaussian-profile spots in a stated amplitude and size range. The strongest opposing consideration is the Planck–WMAP co-location of the five strongest spots, which no critic has specifically dismantled, and the honest 87% residue, neither of which rehabilitates the claimed confidence.

Contradictedconfidence: high · Kimi K3 (Moonshot, via Venice) — independent check run via kimi-k3 · run 2026-08-26-check-kimi · unreviewed draft

The 99.98% figure was quoted for the ring size that worked best after inspection; marginalizing over the searched sizes leaves 87%, roughly 1σ (CCC-E010). A purpose-built detector that demonstrably recovers 95% of synthetic CCC-style spots found no significant population (CCC-E011), and the HawkingNet search with few-pixel screening found none, ruling out Gaussian spots of 100–400 µK at 0.7–1.2° (CCC-E012). Strongest opposing consideration: the Planck–WMAP co-location of the five strongest spots has never been specifically dismantled, and the corrected excess is 87%, not zero — but co-location shows the spots are features of the shared sky rather than instrument noise, not that they are anomalous or pre-cosmic, and a ~1σ residue is not the claimed detection.

Contradictedconfidence: high · Opus 5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5 · run 2026-08-26-check-opus · unreviewed draft

The headline 99.98% was computed for the ring size that performed best in the data; marginalizing over the family of sizes actually searched leaves an 87% (≈1σ) excess (CCC-E010), which is an arithmetic correction to the proponents' own procedure rather than a rival analysis. Two further independent searches then find nothing: López et al. with a detector demonstrably able to recover 95% of synthetic CCC spots, and Bodnia et al. with a machine-learning pipeline that additionally excludes Gaussian spots of 100–400 µK at 0.7–1.2°. The strongest opposing consideration is the co-location of the five strongest Planck spots with five of the strongest WMAP spots; but as the evidence record itself notes, co-location distinguishes sky features from instrument noise and nothing more — both instruments observe the same sky, including the same ΛCDM fluctuations and the same map-level artifacts.

Contradictedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-27-auto-g8zt · unreviewed draft

The 99.98% does not survive marginalization over the in-sample ring-size choice (CCC-E010), and two independent searches with demonstrated sensitivity find no significant population (CCC-E011, CCC-E012). Confidence stays moderate because the Planck–WMAP co-location of the strongest spots (CCC-E009) is still specifically unanswered.

Contradictedconfidence: moderate · none — mechanical migration (scripts/migrations/2026-09-08-editions.ts) · run 2026-09-08-migration-ccc · unreviewed draft

The headline confidence does not survive independent scrutiny: Jow & Scott showed the 99.98% figure depends on fixing the ring size after inspection — marginalizing over sizes leaves an 87% (about 1σ) excess — and two further independent searches (López et al. 2022; Bodnia et al. 2024) found no significant Hawking-point signal, the latter ruling out Gaussian-profile spots of 100–400 µK at 0.7–1.2° extent and tracing the strongest candidates to individual anomalous pixels. The proponents' cross-map coincidence argument (same locations in Planck and WMAP) remains their strongest surviving point.

Contradictedconfidence: high · Gemini 3.8 Flash (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.8-flash · run 2026-09-10-check-gemini-200608 · unreviewed draft

Jow & Scott (2020) established that marginalizing over the search parameter (ring radius) reduces the statistical confidence of the claimed Hawking points from 99.98% to 87% (roughly 1.1σ), fully consistent with Gaussian fluctuations. Furthermore, Bodnia et al. (2024) showed that Gaussian spots within the claimed parameter range are excluded at high resolution, while the signal itself is dominated by just two individual points. Strongest opposing consideration: An et al. (2020) demonstrated that the top five Hawking-point locations in Planck match the top locations in WMAP across different detector technologies.

Contradictedconfidence: high · GLM 5.3 Flash (Z.ai, via Venice) — independent check run via z-ai-glm-5-3-flash · run 2026-09-10-check-glm-200608 · unreviewed draft

The specific 99.98% figure is a textbook look-elsewhere artifact: marginalizing over the searched ring sizes reduces the excess to ~1σ (87%), omitting the two most significant points pushes the probability-to-exceed above 10%, and about a third of the remaining excess comes from a single point. López et al.'s detector, validated at 95% retrieval on synthetic CCC signals, finds no significant population, and Bodnia's HawkingNet finds none while ruling out the claimed amplitude/size box. The strongest opposing consideration — cross-instrument co-location of the top five spots — establishes only that the spots are real features of the shared sky, expected under ΛCDM as well, since Jow & Scott show instrumental noise is negligible at these scales.

Contradictedconfidence: high · GPT-5.6 Sol (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.6-sol · run 2026-09-10-check-gpt-200608 · unreviewed draft

The maps contain hot extrema, but the evidence does not sustain their characterization as a 99.98%-confidence anomalous population with a diagnostic size cutoff. Marginalizing over the searched sizes reduces the excess to 87%, and the statistic is heavily influenced by its most extreme points. Independent purpose-built and maximum-resolution searches find no significant Hawking-point population within their tested signal models. The strongest opposing consideration is the reported Planck–WMAP co-location and apparent size cutoff, although co-location alone does not distinguish CCC from a shared-sky fluctuation.

Contradictedconfidence: high · Grok 4.5 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.5 · run 2026-09-10-check-grok-200608 · unreviewed draft

After marginalizing the post-selected ring size, the 99.98% excess falls to ~87% (~1σ); a detector validated at 95% retrieval on synthetic Hawking points finds no significant population; maximum-resolution searches with artifact screening find none. Cross-instrument co-location only shows the spots are on the shared sky, expected under any sky-feature hypothesis including ΛCDM. Strongest opposing consideration is the residual ~1σ and the 2025 mass–temperature relation fragment, neither of which restores the original confidence level.

Contradictedconfidence: moderate · Opus 5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5 · run 2026-09-10-check-opus-200608 · unreviewed draft

The 99.98% figure quotes the best ring size from a searched family; marginalizing over that choice leaves an 87% excess, little more than 1σ (CCC-E010), and omitting the top two points pushes the probability-to-exceed above 10% (CCC-C511). An independent detector validated at 95% retrieval on synthetic CCC Hawking points found no significant population (CCC-E011), and a maximum-resolution ML search likewise nulled while ruling out a specific amplitude/size box (CCC-E012). Opposing consideration: the reported co-location of the five strongest Planck and WMAP spots is not addressed by Jow & Scott — though since instrumental noise is negligible at these scales (CCC-E028), co-location shows only that the features are on the shared sky, which every hypothesis predicts.

Contradictedconfidence: high · claude-fable-5-1 · run 2026-09-10-edition-200606 · unreviewed draft

Jow & Scott reduce the 99.98% to about 87% by marginalizing over the ring size chosen after looking (CCC-E010), show a third of the residual excess comes from one point (CCC-E054), find no anomalous clustering (CCC-E049, E050) and no polarization counterpart (CCC-E052, E053); López et al.'s detector, validated at 95% retrieval on synthetic CCC spots, finds no significant population (CCC-E011); Bodnia et al. rule out spots of 100–400 µK and 0.7–1.2° (CCC-E012). The supporting record (CCC-E009) is proponent-authored with a post-hoc size choice; its cross-map co-location argument is expected for any sky feature once noise is negligible (CCC-E028).

Contradictedconfidence: high · Gemini 3.8 Flash (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.8-flash · run 2026-09-21-check-gemini-130059 · unreviewed draft

Jow & Scott (2020) demonstrated that the claimed 99.98% confidence level was an unmarginalized post-hoc selection effect; marginalizing over the search ring radii reduced the statistical significance in Planck data to ~87% (roughly 1σ). Furthermore, dedicated neural-network and ring-detection analyses by López et al. (2022) and Bodnia et al. (2024) failed to detect any statistically significant population of Hawking points matching CCC predictions. The strongest opposing consideration is An et al.'s (2020) observation that the top five Planck Hawking points co-locate with top locations in WMAP maps.

Contradictedconfidence: high · GLM 5.3 Flash (Z.ai, via Venice) — independent check run via z-ai-glm-5-3-flash · run 2026-09-21-check-glm-130059 · unreviewed draft

Jow & Scott's marginalization over ring size reduces the 99.98% to 87% (about 1σ), and about a third of the remaining excess comes from a single point; López et al.'s purpose-built detector, validated at 95% retrieval on synthetic CCC signals, finds nothing significant in Planck; Bodnia's HawkingNet agrees. The strongest opposing consideration is the Planck–WMAP co-location of the top spots, but Jow & Scott's noise-negligibility result means any real sky feature appears in both instruments under every hypothesis, so co-location establishes only that the spots are on the sky — which no one disputes.

Contradictedconfidence: high · GPT-5.6 Sol (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.6-sol · run 2026-09-21-check-gpt-130059 · unreviewed draft

Marginalizing over the searched ring sizes reduces the reported 99.98% confidence to 87%, and a substantial part of the residual statistic depends on the most extreme individual points. Independent searches capable of recovering synthetic CCC-style signals find no significant Hawking-point population. The strongest opposing consideration is the Planck–WMAP co-location of leading spots, but both instruments observe the same sky, so co-location does not restore the claimed anomaly significance.

Contradictedconfidence: high · Grok 4.5 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.5 · run 2026-09-21-check-grok-130059 · unreviewed draft

Jow & Scott 2020 demonstrate that marginalizing over the ring-size parameter that was chosen after data inspection reduces the claimed 99.98 % confidence to 87 % (~1σ); López et al. 2022 recover 95 % of synthetic CCC signals yet find no significant population in Planck maps; Bodnia et al. 2024’s HawkingNet search likewise yields a null and rules out the amplitude/size window previously claimed. The strongest opposing consideration is the reported WMAP–Planck co-location of the top spots, which establishes that the features are on the sky but does not establish anomaly once instrumental noise is shown to be negligible at those scales.

Contradictedconfidence: moderate · Opus 5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5 · run 2026-09-21-check-opus-130059 · unreviewed draft

The specific 99.98% figure is directly re-derived as 87% once the searched family of ring sizes is marginalized over (CCC-E010), roughly a third of the residual excess traces to a single point (CCC-E054), a validated purpose-built ring detector finds no significant population (CCC-E011), and a maximum-resolution ML and variance search finds nothing and rules out a specified amplitude/size box (CCC-E012). The clustering and polarization follow-ups add nothing positive (CCC-E049, CCC-E052). Strongest opposing consideration: the co-location of the five strongest spots across Planck and WMAP is unexplained by these records — though CCC-E028 notes noise is negligible at these scales, so co-location follows for any real sky feature under ΛCDM too.

Contradictedconfidence: high · Gemini 3.8 Flash (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.8-flash · run 2026-09-30-check-gemini-103112 · unreviewed draft

The reported 99.98% confidence level for anomalous Hawking points in Planck and WMAP maps is an artifact of failing to account for look-elsewhere effects over search radii. Jow & Scott (2020) showed that marginalizing over ring size reduces significance to 87% (~1σ), with a third of the signal driven by just two points, while Bodnia et al. (2024) demonstrated that anomalous few-pixel spikes manufacture these features and ruled out the predicted spot parameters. The strongest opposing consideration is that the five most prominent Hawking point locations are identical across the independent WMAP and Planck instrument maps.

Contradictedconfidence: high · GLM 5.3 Flash (Z.ai, via Venice) — independent check run via z-ai-glm-5-3-flash · run 2026-09-30-check-glm-103112 · unreviewed draft

Jow & Scott's marginalization over ring size reduces 99.98% to ~87% (CCC-E010), a third of the excess at the claimed scales comes from the single most significant point (CCC-E054), the top points show no anomalous clustering (CCC-C509), a purpose-built detector validated at 95% retrieval on synthetic CCC signals finds no significant population (CCC-E011), and Bodnia et al. rule out the claimed amplitude/size box and find nothing with HawkingNet (CCC-E012). The strongest opposing consideration is the Planck–WMAP co-location of the top spots, but co-location shows the features are on the shared sky, not that they are anomalous — noise is already shown negligible at these scales (CCC-E028), so any strong sky feature must co-locate under every hypothesis.

Contradictedconfidence: high · GPT-5.6 Sol (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.6-sol · run 2026-09-30-check-gpt-103112 · unreviewed draft

Marginalizing over the searched ring size reduces the claimed 99.98% confidence to 87%, and a substantial fraction of the residue depends on the most significant individual points. Independent purpose-built and maximum-resolution searches find no significant Hawking-point population for the profiles they test. The strongest opposing consideration is the Planck-WMAP co-location of prominent spots, but shared celestial locations are expected for any real CMB feature and do not restore the claimed statistical confidence.

Contradictedconfidence: high · Grok 4.5 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.5 · run 2026-09-30-check-grok-103112 · unreviewed draft

Jow & Scott show that marginalizing over the post-hoc ring-size window reduces the 99.98% claim to ~87% (~1σ); López et al. recover no significant population with a detector validated at 95% on synthetic Hawking points; Bodnia et al. rule out the amplitude/size box with HawkingNet and open code. The strongest opposing consideration is the Planck–WMAP co-location of the top spots, which establishes they are on the sky but is expected under any shared-sky hypothesis including ΛCDM fluctuations.

Contradictedconfidence: high · Opus 5.5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5-5 · run 2026-09-30-check-opus-103112 · unreviewed draft

The 99.98% figure (E009) was quoted for the best of a family of ring sizes selected after inspecting the data; marginalizing over size reduces the excess to 87%, little more than 1σ (E010). Independently of that correction, about a third of the excess at the claimed scales comes from a single point (E054). Two further independent searches — a detector that retrieved 95% of synthetic CCC-style spots (E011) and the full-resolution HawkingNet search (E012) — find no significant population. The Planck–WMAP co-location argument does not restore the anomaly: with instrumental noise negligible at these scales (E028), any genuine sky feature, ordinary ΛCDM fluctuations included, must appear in both maps. Strongest opposing consideration: a ~1σ residue and López et al.'s 1%-level candidate excess remain, Jow & Scott worked on Planck 2018 rather than the 2015 maps the proponents analysed, and Bodnia's excluded amplitude–size box is specific to a Gaussian profile.

Contradictedconfidence: high · claude-opus-5-5 · run 2026-09-30-edition-093242 · unreviewed draft

The 99.98% was quoted for the best ring size; marginalizing over the sizes searched gives 87%, about 1σ (CCC-E010). A third of the excess comes from single points (CCC-E054). López et al.'s detector, which recovers 95% of synthetic CCC spots, finds no significant population (CCC-E011), and HawkingNet finds none (CCC-E012). Instrument noise is negligible at these scales (CCC-E028), so the Planck–WMAP co-location in CCC-E009 shows the spots are on the sky, not where they came from. CCC-E023: no search was preregistered.