Append-only AI overlay records; the canon claim file is never mutated.
Contradictedconfidence: moderate · Fable (Claude), via Cursor · run 2026-08-22-fable-1 · unreviewed draft
The 99.98% figure does not survive marginalization over the in-sample ring-size choice (87%), and two independent searches with demonstrated sensitivity find nothing, one excluding the claimed amplitude/size box outright. Confidence stays moderate rather than high because the cross-map co-location of the strongest spots remains specifically unaddressed.
Contradictedconfidence: high · Gemini 3.1 Pro (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.1-pro-preview · run 2026-08-23-check-gemini · unreviewed draft
The flagship 99.98% confidence claim was dismantled by Jow & Scott, who demonstrated that marginalizing over the post-hoc selection of ring size drops the significance to a statistically unremarkable 87% (roughly 1σ). Subsequent independent searches using machine learning found no surviving signal. The strongest opposing consideration is that the top spots strictly co-locate across independent WMAP and Planck datasets, proving they are real sky features rather than isolated instrument noise.
Contradictedconfidence: high · GPT-5.1 (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.1 · run 2026-08-23-check-gpt · unreviewed draft
While An, Meissner, Nurowski & Penrose report Hawking points at 99.98% confidence, Jow & Scott show that this figure depends on fixing the ring size after inspecting the data; when one properly marginalizes over the tested sizes, the excess falls to 87%, equivalent to about 1σ and not statistically significant. López et al. then build a dedicated ring detector that recovers synthetic CCC signals with high efficiency but finds no significant excess in Planck maps, and Bodnia et al. use a machine-learning approach plus artifact screening to find no signal and to rule out a stated range of plausible Hawking-spot amplitudes. The strongest proponent consideration is the Planck–WMAP co-location of a handful of the strongest spots, which demonstrates that those spots are not instrument-specific noise; however, co-location alone does not restore statistical significance under a proper null and is fully compatible with ΛCDM fluctuations or shared sky-fixed artifacts.
Contradictedconfidence: high · Grok 4.6 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.6 · run 2026-08-23-check-grok · unreviewed draft
Jow and Scott 2020 show that the 99.98 percent figure is the best-size result after the ring radius was chosen by inspection; marginalizing over the family of sizes searched leaves an 87 percent (about 1σ) excess. López et al. 2022, with a detector that recovers 95 percent of synthetic CCC spots, find no significant population, and Bodnia et al. 2024 rule out Gaussian-profile spots of 100–400 µK at 0.7–1.2 degrees and trace the strongest candidates to anomalous pixels. The strongest opposing consideration is the Planck–WMAP co-location of the five strongest spots, which no critic has specifically dismantled and which shows the spots are on the sky rather than in one instrument — but co-location is expected for any real shared-sky feature, artifact or fluctuation, and does not restore the headline significance.
Contradictedconfidence: high · Kimi K3 (Moonshot, via Venice) — independent check run via kimi-k3 · run 2026-08-23-check-kimi · unreviewed draft
The headline 99.98% does not survive independent scrutiny: Jow & Scott (CCC-E010) show it was quoted for the ring size chosen after inspection, and marginalizing over the searched sizes leaves an 87% (~1σ) excess. López et al. (CCC-E011) built a detector that recovers 95% of synthetic CCC spots and found no significant population; Bodnia et al. (CCC-E012) found no significant Hawking points, excluded Gaussian-profile spots of 100–400 µK at 0.7–1.2°, and traced the strongest candidates to anomalous pixels. The strongest opposing consideration is the Planck–WMAP co-location of the five strongest spots, which no critic has specifically dismantled — but co-location is expected for any real feature of the shared sky, artifact or ΛCDM fluctuation, so it shows the spots are on the sky rather than in the instruments without showing they are pre-cosmic. The claim as stated, including its significance figure, is contradicted.
Contradictedconfidence: high · Opus 5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5 · run 2026-08-23-check-opus · unreviewed draft
The headline number does not survive its own look-elsewhere correction: marginalizing over the ring sizes actually searched takes 99.98% to 87% (~1σ), a correction that requires no new data and no contested ensemble. Two further independent searches return nulls, one with a detector demonstrably able to recover 95% of synthetic CCC spots, the other ruling out Gaussian-profile spots of 100–400 µK at 0.7–1.2° and tracing the strongest candidates to individual anomalous pixels. The strongest opposing consideration is the co-location of the five strongest Planck spots with five of the strongest WMAP spots, which no critic has specifically dismantled — but co-location is expected for any genuine sky feature, including a shared foreground or data artifact, and so does not by itself restore statistical anomalousness.
Contradictedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-fable-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-24-auto-aufg · unreviewed draft
The 99.98% figure does not survive marginalization over the in-sample ring-size choice (CCC-E010), and two independent searches with demonstrated sensitivity find nothing (CCC-E011, CCC-E012). CCC-E022 elaborates the spots' predicted properties but does not engage these statistical critiques, so the verdict stands; confidence stays moderate because the Planck–WMAP co-location (CCC-E009) remains specifically unanswered.
Contradictedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-fable-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-24-auto-px56 · unreviewed draft
The 99.98% figure does not survive marginalization over the in-sample ring-size choice (CCC-E010), and two independent searches with demonstrated sensitivity find no significant population (CCC-E011, CCC-E012). CCC-E022 elaborates predicted spot properties but does not engage the statistical critiques; confidence stays moderate because the Planck–WMAP co-location of the top spots (CCC-E009) remains specifically unanswered.
Contradictedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-25-auto-83k7 · unreviewed draft
The 99.98% does not survive marginalization over the in-sample ring-size choice (CCC-E010), and two independent searches with demonstrated sensitivity find no significant population (CCC-E011, CCC-E012). Confidence stays moderate because the Planck–WMAP co-location of the strongest spots (CCC-E009) remains specifically unanswered, and CCC-E022 elaborates spot properties without engaging the statistics.
Contradictedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-25-auto-p1qk · unreviewed draft
The 99.98% does not survive marginalization over the in-sample ring-size choice (CCC-E010), and two independent searches with demonstrated sensitivity find no significant population (CCC-E011, CCC-E012). Confidence remains moderate rather than high because the Planck–WMAP co-location of the strongest spots (CCC-E009) is still specifically unanswered, and CCC-E022 elaborates spot properties without engaging the statistics.
Contradictedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-25-auto-vwu2 · unreviewed draft
The 99.98% does not survive marginalization over the in-sample ring-size choice (CCC-E010), and two independent searches with demonstrated sensitivity find no significant population (CCC-E011, CCC-E012). Confidence stays moderate because the Planck–WMAP co-location of the strongest spots (CCC-E009) remains specifically unanswered and CCC-E022 elaborates spot properties without engaging the statistics.
Contradictedconfidence: high · Gemini 3.1 Pro (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.1-pro-preview · run 2026-08-25-check-gemini · unreviewed draft
The initial claim of 99.98% confidence for Hawking points relies on a basic statistical error involving look-elsewhere effects. As Jow and Scott demonstrated, marginalizing over the post-hoc selection of ring size reduces the significance to roughly 87% (1σ), and subsequent high-resolution artifact screening by Bodnia et al. removes any significant remnant. The strongest opposing evidence is the unexplained cross-map co-location of the top spot candidates in both Planck and WMAP data, indicating they are real features of the shared sky rather than instrument noise.
Contradictedconfidence: high · GPT-5.1 (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.1 · run 2026-08-25-check-gpt · unreviewed draft
The 99.98% Hawking-point significance reported by An et al. is sharply reduced by Jow & Scott once the look-elsewhere effect over ring size is properly handled; the excess drops to ~87% (about 1σ), which is statistically unremarkable. López et al. apply a purpose-built detector that recovers synthetic CCC-like spots with high efficiency yet find no significant excess in Planck data, and Bodnia et al. both trace strong candidates to few-pixel artifacts and rule out spots with the claimed amplitudes and sizes over a broad range. The strongest opposing consideration is the cross-map co-location of the brightest anomalous spots in Planck and WMAP, but co-location is expected for any genuine sky feature—ΛCDM fluctuations or shared systematics—and, by itself, does not restore a high significance anomaly.
Contradictedconfidence: high · Grok 4.6 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.6 · run 2026-08-25-check-grok · unreviewed draft
Jow and Scott showed that the 99.98% figure was quoted for the best ring size after inspection; marginalizing over the family of sizes searched leaves an 87% (about 1σ) excess. López et al. 2022, using a detector that recovered 95% of synthetic CCC spots, found no significant population, and Bodnia et al. 2024 ruled out Gaussian-profile spots of 100–400 µK at 0.7–1.2° and traced the strongest candidates to anomalous pixels. The strongest opposing consideration is the Planck–WMAP co-location of the five strongest spots, which shows the candidates are on the sky rather than in one instrument's noise — though co-location is also expected for ordinary shared-sky CMB fluctuations and shared map artifacts.
Contradictedconfidence: high · Kimi K3 (Moonshot, via Venice) — independent check run via kimi-k3 · run 2026-08-25-check-kimi · unreviewed draft
Jow & Scott's marginalization over the in-sample-optimized ring size collapses the headline 99.98% to 87% — roughly one sigma — on unchanged data, which is the cleanest demonstration in the case that the significance lived in the analysis choices (CCC-E010). Two further independent searches then find nothing: López et al. built a detector that recovers 95% of synthetic CCC-style spots and found no significant population in Planck maps (CCC-E011), and Bodnia et al.'s HawkingNet rules out Gaussian-profile spots of 100–400 µK at 0.7–1.2° while tracing the strongest candidates to anomalous individual pixels (CCC-E012). The strongest opposing consideration is the Planck–WMAP co-location of the five strongest spots, which no critic has specifically dismantled; but co-location only shows the spots are in the shared sky rather than in one instrument, and both instruments observe the same ΛCDM fluctuations and (per Bodnia) the same few-pixel anomalies, so it cannot presently carry the anomaly claim.
Contradictedconfidence: high · Opus 5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5 · run 2026-08-25-check-opus · unreviewed draft
The headline 99.98% was computed for the ring size that performed best in-sample; Jow & Scott's marginalization over the searched family of sizes reduces the excess to 87%, roughly 1σ, using the same data. Two further independent searches found nothing significant, and one of them (López et al.) had first demonstrated 95% retrieval of synthetic CCC-style Hawking points, which answers the charge that critical pipelines are simply insensitive; Bodnia et al. additionally exclude Gaussian spots of 100–400 µK at 0.7–1.2° and trace the strongest candidates to individual anomalous pixels. The strongest surviving proponent point is the co-location of the five strongest spots across Planck and WMAP, which no critic has specifically dismantled — but co-location is expected for any real sky feature or any shared-map artifact, so it discriminates instrument noise from sky structure, not previous-aeon signals from ΛCDM fluctuations.
Contradictedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-26-auto-pbbj · unreviewed draft
The 99.98% does not survive marginalization over the in-sample ring-size choice (CCC-E010), and two independent searches with demonstrated sensitivity find no significant population (CCC-E011, CCC-E012). Confidence stays moderate because the Planck–WMAP co-location of the strongest spots (CCC-E009) is still specifically unanswered.
Contradictedconfidence: high · Gemini 3.1 Pro (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.1-pro-preview · run 2026-08-26-check-gemini · unreviewed draft
The headline 99.98% confidence level is a direct artifact of failing to correct for the look-elsewhere effect; marginalizing over the searched ring sizes reduces the significance to a statistically unremarkable 87% (roughly 1-sigma). Subsequent searches with purpose-built detectors and artifact screening found no significant populations. The strongest surviving proponent argument is the cross-instrument co-location of the strongest spots in Planck and WMAP, though this only proves they are in the sky, not that they are anomalous.
Contradictedconfidence: high · GPT-5.1 (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.1 · run 2026-08-26-check-gpt · unreviewed draft
The 99.98% Hawking-point significance in An et al. (CCC-E009) is shown by Jow & Scott to collapse to an 87% (~1σ) excess once one correctly marginalizes over the searched ring sizes (CCC-E010), and two further independent searches—López et al., with a CCC-calibrated ring detector, and Bodnia et al., with a deep network—find no statistically significant Hawking-point population, with Bodnia et al. explicitly ruling out spots of the quoted amplitudes and scales and tying candidate regions to a few anomalous pixels (CCC-E011, E012). The strongest counter-consideration is the cross-map co-location of the brightest spots in WMAP and Planck and the 2025 Meissner–Penrose modeling of a mass–temperature relation, but these presuppose a genuine excess and do not restore the underlying statistical case once look-elsewhere and artifact issues are addressed.
Contradictedconfidence: high · Grok 4.6 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.6 · run 2026-08-26-check-grok · unreviewed draft
The 99.98% figure does not survive a look-elsewhere correction: Jow and Scott show that marginalizing over the family of ring sizes actually searched drops the excess to 87%, about 1σ. Two further independent searches — López et al., with a detector that recovers 95% of synthetic CCC spots, and Bodnia et al., with HawkingNet plus pixel screening — find no significant population and can rule out Gaussian-profile spots in a stated amplitude and size range. The strongest opposing consideration is the Planck–WMAP co-location of the five strongest spots, which no critic has specifically dismantled, and the honest 87% residue, neither of which rehabilitates the claimed confidence.
Contradictedconfidence: high · Kimi K3 (Moonshot, via Venice) — independent check run via kimi-k3 · run 2026-08-26-check-kimi · unreviewed draft
The 99.98% figure was quoted for the ring size that worked best after inspection; marginalizing over the searched sizes leaves 87%, roughly 1σ (CCC-E010). A purpose-built detector that demonstrably recovers 95% of synthetic CCC-style spots found no significant population (CCC-E011), and the HawkingNet search with few-pixel screening found none, ruling out Gaussian spots of 100–400 µK at 0.7–1.2° (CCC-E012). Strongest opposing consideration: the Planck–WMAP co-location of the five strongest spots has never been specifically dismantled, and the corrected excess is 87%, not zero — but co-location shows the spots are features of the shared sky rather than instrument noise, not that they are anomalous or pre-cosmic, and a ~1σ residue is not the claimed detection.
Contradictedconfidence: high · Opus 5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5 · run 2026-08-26-check-opus · unreviewed draft
The headline 99.98% was computed for the ring size that performed best in the data; marginalizing over the family of sizes actually searched leaves an 87% (≈1σ) excess (CCC-E010), which is an arithmetic correction to the proponents' own procedure rather than a rival analysis. Two further independent searches then find nothing: López et al. with a detector demonstrably able to recover 95% of synthetic CCC spots, and Bodnia et al. with a machine-learning pipeline that additionally excludes Gaussian spots of 100–400 µK at 0.7–1.2°. The strongest opposing consideration is the co-location of the five strongest Planck spots with five of the strongest WMAP spots; but as the evidence record itself notes, co-location distinguishes sky features from instrument noise and nothing more — both instruments observe the same sky, including the same ΛCDM fluctuations and the same map-level artifacts.
Contradictedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-27-auto-g8zt · unreviewed draft
The 99.98% does not survive marginalization over the in-sample ring-size choice (CCC-E010), and two independent searches with demonstrated sensitivity find no significant population (CCC-E011, CCC-E012). Confidence stays moderate because the Planck–WMAP co-location of the strongest spots (CCC-E009) is still specifically unanswered.
Contradictedconfidence: moderate · none — mechanical migration (scripts/migrations/2026-09-08-editions.ts) · run 2026-09-08-migration-ccc · unreviewed draft
The headline confidence does not survive independent scrutiny: Jow & Scott showed the 99.98% figure depends on fixing the ring size after inspection — marginalizing over sizes leaves an 87% (about 1σ) excess — and two further independent searches (López et al. 2022; Bodnia et al. 2024) found no significant Hawking-point signal, the latter ruling out Gaussian-profile spots of 100–400 µK at 0.7–1.2° extent and tracing the strongest candidates to individual anomalous pixels. The proponents' cross-map coincidence argument (same locations in Planck and WMAP) remains their strongest surviving point.
Contradictedconfidence: high · Gemini 3.8 Flash (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.8-flash · run 2026-09-10-check-gemini-200608 · unreviewed draft
Jow & Scott (2020) established that marginalizing over the search parameter (ring radius) reduces the statistical confidence of the claimed Hawking points from 99.98% to 87% (roughly 1.1σ), fully consistent with Gaussian fluctuations. Furthermore, Bodnia et al. (2024) showed that Gaussian spots within the claimed parameter range are excluded at high resolution, while the signal itself is dominated by just two individual points. Strongest opposing consideration: An et al. (2020) demonstrated that the top five Hawking-point locations in Planck match the top locations in WMAP across different detector technologies.
Contradictedconfidence: high · GLM 5.3 Flash (Z.ai, via Venice) — independent check run via z-ai-glm-5-3-flash · run 2026-09-10-check-glm-200608 · unreviewed draft
The specific 99.98% figure is a textbook look-elsewhere artifact: marginalizing over the searched ring sizes reduces the excess to ~1σ (87%), omitting the two most significant points pushes the probability-to-exceed above 10%, and about a third of the remaining excess comes from a single point. López et al.'s detector, validated at 95% retrieval on synthetic CCC signals, finds no significant population, and Bodnia's HawkingNet finds none while ruling out the claimed amplitude/size box. The strongest opposing consideration — cross-instrument co-location of the top five spots — establishes only that the spots are real features of the shared sky, expected under ΛCDM as well, since Jow & Scott show instrumental noise is negligible at these scales.
Contradictedconfidence: high · GPT-5.6 Sol (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.6-sol · run 2026-09-10-check-gpt-200608 · unreviewed draft
The maps contain hot extrema, but the evidence does not sustain their characterization as a 99.98%-confidence anomalous population with a diagnostic size cutoff. Marginalizing over the searched sizes reduces the excess to 87%, and the statistic is heavily influenced by its most extreme points. Independent purpose-built and maximum-resolution searches find no significant Hawking-point population within their tested signal models. The strongest opposing consideration is the reported Planck–WMAP co-location and apparent size cutoff, although co-location alone does not distinguish CCC from a shared-sky fluctuation.
Contradictedconfidence: high · Grok 4.5 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.5 · run 2026-09-10-check-grok-200608 · unreviewed draft
After marginalizing the post-selected ring size, the 99.98% excess falls to ~87% (~1σ); a detector validated at 95% retrieval on synthetic Hawking points finds no significant population; maximum-resolution searches with artifact screening find none. Cross-instrument co-location only shows the spots are on the shared sky, expected under any sky-feature hypothesis including ΛCDM. Strongest opposing consideration is the residual ~1σ and the 2025 mass–temperature relation fragment, neither of which restores the original confidence level.
Contradictedconfidence: moderate · Opus 5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5 · run 2026-09-10-check-opus-200608 · unreviewed draft
The 99.98% figure quotes the best ring size from a searched family; marginalizing over that choice leaves an 87% excess, little more than 1σ (CCC-E010), and omitting the top two points pushes the probability-to-exceed above 10% (CCC-C511). An independent detector validated at 95% retrieval on synthetic CCC Hawking points found no significant population (CCC-E011), and a maximum-resolution ML search likewise nulled while ruling out a specific amplitude/size box (CCC-E012). Opposing consideration: the reported co-location of the five strongest Planck and WMAP spots is not addressed by Jow & Scott — though since instrumental noise is negligible at these scales (CCC-E028), co-location shows only that the features are on the shared sky, which every hypothesis predicts.
Contradictedconfidence: high · claude-fable-5-1 · run 2026-09-10-edition-200606 · unreviewed draft
Jow & Scott reduce the 99.98% to about 87% by marginalizing over the ring size chosen after looking (CCC-E010), show a third of the residual excess comes from one point (CCC-E054), find no anomalous clustering (CCC-E049, E050) and no polarization counterpart (CCC-E052, E053); López et al.'s detector, validated at 95% retrieval on synthetic CCC spots, finds no significant population (CCC-E011); Bodnia et al. rule out spots of 100–400 µK and 0.7–1.2° (CCC-E012). The supporting record (CCC-E009) is proponent-authored with a post-hoc size choice; its cross-map co-location argument is expected for any sky feature once noise is negligible (CCC-E028).
Contradictedconfidence: high · Gemini 3.8 Flash (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.8-flash · run 2026-09-21-check-gemini-130059 · unreviewed draft
Jow & Scott (2020) demonstrated that the claimed 99.98% confidence level was an unmarginalized post-hoc selection effect; marginalizing over the search ring radii reduced the statistical significance in Planck data to ~87% (roughly 1σ). Furthermore, dedicated neural-network and ring-detection analyses by López et al. (2022) and Bodnia et al. (2024) failed to detect any statistically significant population of Hawking points matching CCC predictions. The strongest opposing consideration is An et al.'s (2020) observation that the top five Planck Hawking points co-locate with top locations in WMAP maps.
Contradictedconfidence: high · GLM 5.3 Flash (Z.ai, via Venice) — independent check run via z-ai-glm-5-3-flash · run 2026-09-21-check-glm-130059 · unreviewed draft
Jow & Scott's marginalization over ring size reduces the 99.98% to 87% (about 1σ), and about a third of the remaining excess comes from a single point; López et al.'s purpose-built detector, validated at 95% retrieval on synthetic CCC signals, finds nothing significant in Planck; Bodnia's HawkingNet agrees. The strongest opposing consideration is the Planck–WMAP co-location of the top spots, but Jow & Scott's noise-negligibility result means any real sky feature appears in both instruments under every hypothesis, so co-location establishes only that the spots are on the sky — which no one disputes.
Contradictedconfidence: high · GPT-5.6 Sol (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.6-sol · run 2026-09-21-check-gpt-130059 · unreviewed draft
Marginalizing over the searched ring sizes reduces the reported 99.98% confidence to 87%, and a substantial part of the residual statistic depends on the most extreme individual points. Independent searches capable of recovering synthetic CCC-style signals find no significant Hawking-point population. The strongest opposing consideration is the Planck–WMAP co-location of leading spots, but both instruments observe the same sky, so co-location does not restore the claimed anomaly significance.
Contradictedconfidence: high · Grok 4.5 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.5 · run 2026-09-21-check-grok-130059 · unreviewed draft
Jow & Scott 2020 demonstrate that marginalizing over the ring-size parameter that was chosen after data inspection reduces the claimed 99.98 % confidence to 87 % (~1σ); López et al. 2022 recover 95 % of synthetic CCC signals yet find no significant population in Planck maps; Bodnia et al. 2024’s HawkingNet search likewise yields a null and rules out the amplitude/size window previously claimed. The strongest opposing consideration is the reported WMAP–Planck co-location of the top spots, which establishes that the features are on the sky but does not establish anomaly once instrumental noise is shown to be negligible at those scales.
Contradictedconfidence: moderate · Opus 5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5 · run 2026-09-21-check-opus-130059 · unreviewed draft
The specific 99.98% figure is directly re-derived as 87% once the searched family of ring sizes is marginalized over (CCC-E010), roughly a third of the residual excess traces to a single point (CCC-E054), a validated purpose-built ring detector finds no significant population (CCC-E011), and a maximum-resolution ML and variance search finds nothing and rules out a specified amplitude/size box (CCC-E012). The clustering and polarization follow-ups add nothing positive (CCC-E049, CCC-E052). Strongest opposing consideration: the co-location of the five strongest spots across Planck and WMAP is unexplained by these records — though CCC-E028 notes noise is negligible at these scales, so co-location follows for any real sky feature under ΛCDM too.
Contradictedconfidence: high · Gemini 3.8 Flash (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.8-flash · run 2026-09-30-check-gemini-103112 · unreviewed draft
The reported 99.98% confidence level for anomalous Hawking points in Planck and WMAP maps is an artifact of failing to account for look-elsewhere effects over search radii. Jow & Scott (2020) showed that marginalizing over ring size reduces significance to 87% (~1σ), with a third of the signal driven by just two points, while Bodnia et al. (2024) demonstrated that anomalous few-pixel spikes manufacture these features and ruled out the predicted spot parameters. The strongest opposing consideration is that the five most prominent Hawking point locations are identical across the independent WMAP and Planck instrument maps.
Contradictedconfidence: high · GLM 5.3 Flash (Z.ai, via Venice) — independent check run via z-ai-glm-5-3-flash · run 2026-09-30-check-glm-103112 · unreviewed draft
Jow & Scott's marginalization over ring size reduces 99.98% to ~87% (CCC-E010), a third of the excess at the claimed scales comes from the single most significant point (CCC-E054), the top points show no anomalous clustering (CCC-C509), a purpose-built detector validated at 95% retrieval on synthetic CCC signals finds no significant population (CCC-E011), and Bodnia et al. rule out the claimed amplitude/size box and find nothing with HawkingNet (CCC-E012). The strongest opposing consideration is the Planck–WMAP co-location of the top spots, but co-location shows the features are on the shared sky, not that they are anomalous — noise is already shown negligible at these scales (CCC-E028), so any strong sky feature must co-locate under every hypothesis.
Contradictedconfidence: high · GPT-5.6 Sol (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.6-sol · run 2026-09-30-check-gpt-103112 · unreviewed draft
Marginalizing over the searched ring size reduces the claimed 99.98% confidence to 87%, and a substantial fraction of the residue depends on the most significant individual points. Independent purpose-built and maximum-resolution searches find no significant Hawking-point population for the profiles they test. The strongest opposing consideration is the Planck-WMAP co-location of prominent spots, but shared celestial locations are expected for any real CMB feature and do not restore the claimed statistical confidence.
Contradictedconfidence: high · Grok 4.5 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.5 · run 2026-09-30-check-grok-103112 · unreviewed draft
Jow & Scott show that marginalizing over the post-hoc ring-size window reduces the 99.98% claim to ~87% (~1σ); López et al. recover no significant population with a detector validated at 95% on synthetic Hawking points; Bodnia et al. rule out the amplitude/size box with HawkingNet and open code. The strongest opposing consideration is the Planck–WMAP co-location of the top spots, which establishes they are on the sky but is expected under any shared-sky hypothesis including ΛCDM fluctuations.
Contradictedconfidence: high · Opus 5.5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5-5 · run 2026-09-30-check-opus-103112 · unreviewed draft
The 99.98% figure (E009) was quoted for the best of a family of ring sizes selected after inspecting the data; marginalizing over size reduces the excess to 87%, little more than 1σ (E010). Independently of that correction, about a third of the excess at the claimed scales comes from a single point (E054). Two further independent searches — a detector that retrieved 95% of synthetic CCC-style spots (E011) and the full-resolution HawkingNet search (E012) — find no significant population. The Planck–WMAP co-location argument does not restore the anomaly: with instrumental noise negligible at these scales (E028), any genuine sky feature, ordinary ΛCDM fluctuations included, must appear in both maps. Strongest opposing consideration: a ~1σ residue and López et al.'s 1%-level candidate excess remain, Jow & Scott worked on Planck 2018 rather than the 2015 maps the proponents analysed, and Bodnia's excluded amplitude–size box is specific to a Gaussian profile.
Contradictedconfidence: high · claude-opus-5-5 · run 2026-09-30-edition-093242 · unreviewed draft
The 99.98% was quoted for the best ring size; marginalizing over the sizes searched gives 87%, about 1σ (CCC-E010). A third of the excess comes from single points (CCC-E054). López et al.'s detector, which recovers 95% of synthetic CCC spots, finds no significant population (CCC-E011), and HawkingNet finds none (CCC-E012). Instrument noise is negligible at these scales (CCC-E028), so the Planck–WMAP co-location in CCC-E009 shows the spots are on the sky, not where they came from. CCC-E023: no search was preregistered.