Append-only AI overlay records; the canon claim file is never mutated.
Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · Kimi K3 (Moonshot, via Venice) — independent check run via kimi-k3 · run 2026-08-23-check-kimi · unreviewed draft
This is a universally quantified negative over a domain whose central quantity — physiological microtubule coherence (ORCH-C010) — has never been measured, so the receptor-level evidence supporting ORCH-C003 raises its plausibility without entailing it. The record also contains anomalies a completed classical account would need to absorb: the xenon nuclear-spin potency split at identical polarizability (ORCH-C025) and the unresolved epothilone direction conflict. The strongest opposing consideration is parsimony: every anesthetic endpoint so far explained has been explained classically, no quantum-coherent contribution to cognition has ever been demonstrated, and "unresolved" may overprice an unoccupied hypothesis space. That argument is prior-based, however; on the evidence records alone, a universal negative over an unmeasured domain cannot be graded above unresolved.
Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-25-auto-6bwy · unreviewed draft
A universally quantified negative is not confirmed by accumulating conventional successes, and there is concrete residue against it: partial rather than abolished hypnotic effect in ORCH-E030 and no sufficient channel or combination for inhaled-agent immobility in ORCH-E031. ORCH-E033 is a real dissociation but its authors read it in network terms with no quantum content.
Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-25-auto-jlsi · unreviewed draft
A universally quantified negative cannot be confirmed by accumulating successful conventional explanations, and the new material supplies concrete residue against it: ORCH-E030 shows the hypnotic endpoint is only partly abolished by the β3 mutation, and ORCH-E031 reports no channel or combination sufficient for inhaled-agent immobility. ORCH-E033 is a real dissociation but its authors' own reading is network-based, so it does not settle this either way.
Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-25-auto-scxb · unreviewed draft
A universal negative cannot be established by accumulating conventional successes, and there is concrete residue against it: ORCH-E030 shows the hypnotic endpoint only partly abolished, and ORCH-E031 reports no channel or combination sufficient for inhaled-agent immobility. ORCH-E033 is a genuine dissociation whose authors read it in network terms.
Unresolvedconfidence: high · Gemini 3.1 Pro (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.1-pro-preview · run 2026-08-25-check-gemini · unreviewed draft
Proving a universally quantified negative across an unmeasured domain is currently impossible. While classical multi-target mechanisms successfully explain many anesthetic endpoints, the core quantum coherence variable has simply never been measured, so we cannot categorically exclude its presence. Additionally, anomalies like the xenon nuclear-spin potency split resist simple classical explanation and must be addressed before this exhaustive claim can be considered established.
Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · GPT-5.1 (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.1 · run 2026-08-25-check-gpt · unreviewed draft
While no clear quantum-coherent contribution to cognition or anesthesia has been demonstrated, the key quantum-decoherence quantity in microtubules has never been measured, and anomalies like the xenon nuclear-spin effect are not yet absorbed into a fully classical story. Moreover, authoritative reviews concede that known ligand- and voltage-gated channels cannot by themselves explain volatile immobility and that β3 knock-in only partially removes hypnotic effects. The strongest opposing consideration is parsimony: all well-understood anesthetic mechanisms to date are classical, and decades of work have turned up no compelling need for a quantum-coherent ingredient, but this absence of evidence does not logically establish a universal negative.
Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · Grok 4.6 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.6 · run 2026-08-25-check-grok · unreviewed draft
A universally quantified negative over an unmeasured domain cannot be graded above unresolved while the load-bearing quantum quantity at ORCH-C010 has never been measured in either direction. Receptor-level successes raise the claim's plausibility without entailing it, and the ledger still contains unresolved anomalies — the xenon nuclear-spin potency split, conflicting epothilone directions, and Eger et al.'s report that no known channel combination accounts for inhaled immobility — that a completed classical account would need to absorb. The strongest opposing consideration is parsimony: every anesthetic endpoint so far given a mechanism has been given a classical one, no quantum-coherent contribution to any cognitive function has been demonstrated, and treating "unresolved" as the grade may overprice a hypothesis space nothing yet occupies.
Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · Kimi K3 (Moonshot, via Venice) — independent check run via kimi-k3 · run 2026-08-25-check-kimi · unreviewed draft
This is a universally quantified negative over a domain whose central quantity (ORCH-C010) has never been measured, so neither it nor its rival can currently be graded above unresolved on the evidence. The case's own records contain unresolved anomalies a completed classical account would need to absorb — the xenon nuclear-spin potency split (ORCH-C025) and the epothilone effects (ORCH-C023/C024) — and the classical literature's own flagship review reports that no channel or combination suffices even for the immobility endpoint it studied (ORCH-E031). The strongest opposing consideration is parsimony: every anesthetic endpoint so far explained has been explained classically, no quantum contribution to cognition has ever been demonstrated, and the burden of proof sits with the challenger — so "unresolved" risks overpricing a hypothesis space nothing yet occupies. That is a legitimate prior objection, but it does not convert unmeasured into excluded.
Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · Opus 5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5 · run 2026-08-25-check-opus · unreviewed draft
This is a universally quantified negative over a domain that has never been measured: with ORCH-C010 unmeasured in either direction, no record can establish that nothing quantum contributes. The ledger also contains two unabsorbed anomalies — the xenon nuclear-spin potency split and the incoherent epothilone/vinblastine directions — plus the Eger review's own report that the classical target inventory does not suffice for the endpoint it studied. The strongest opposing consideration is parsimony and base rate: every anesthetic endpoint yet explained has been explained classically and no quantum contribution to any cognitive function has ever been demonstrated, so a reader weighting priors heavily would grade this provisionally_supported. That reading rests on background expectation, not on the attached records, which is why I do not adopt it.
Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-26-auto-c256 · unreviewed draft
A universal negative is not established by accumulating conventional successes, and there is concrete residue: ORCH-E030 leaves the hypnotic endpoint only partly abolished and ORCH-E031 reports no channel or combination sufficient for inhaled-agent immobility. ORCH-E033 is a real dissociation whose authors read it in network terms.
Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-08-27-auto-mxfv · unreviewed draft
A universal negative is not established by accumulating conventional successes, and there is concrete residue: ORCH-E030 leaves the hypnotic endpoint only partly abolished and ORCH-E031 reports no channel or combination sufficient for inhaled-agent immobility. ORCH-E033 is a real dissociation whose authors read it in network terms.
Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · Gemini 3.1 Pro (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.1-pro-preview · run 2026-08-27-check-gemini · unreviewed draft
While the conventional account is strong for specific targets (ORCH-E015), the exhaustive claim that no quantum-coherent contribution exists anywhere is an unproven universally quantified negative. The strongest opposing consideration is the existence of the xenon nuclear-spin isotope effect (ORCH-E014), an anomaly demonstrating that a quantum degree of freedom influences anesthetic potency in a way classical lipid and polarizability models cannot explain.
Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · GPT-5.1 (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.1 · run 2026-08-27-check-gpt · unreviewed draft
While many anesthetic endpoints and much of cognition are convincingly explained by classical targets and network dynamics (ORCH-C003/E015, E031), the key quantum quantity for Orch OR — coherence in physiological microtubules (ORCH-C010) — has never been measured, so there is no direct empirical basis to assert that no quantum-coherent contribution exists anywhere. Persistent anomalies such as xenon’s nuclear-spin potency differences (ORCH-C025/E014) and unresolved microtubule-drug effects (ORCH-C012/C023/C024) also sit awkwardly in a fully closed classical picture. The strongest opposing consideration is parsimony: three decades of neurobiology and anesthesiology have found no need for quantum coherence to explain behaviour, making a strictly classical account prior-favoured even though not yet empirically exhaustive.
Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · Grok 4.6 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.6 · run 2026-08-27-check-grok · unreviewed draft
A universally quantified negative over an unmeasured domain cannot be established by accumulating classical successes, and the load-bearing quantum quantity has never been measured in either direction. Receptor-level evidence for ORCH-C003 raises the plausibility of this stronger claim without entailing it, while the file contains unresolved anomalies — the xenon nuclear-spin potency split, conflicting epothilone directions, and Eger's report that no known channel combination accounts for inhaled immobility — that a completed classical account would need to absorb. Strongest opposing consideration is parsimony: no quantum-coherent contribution to any cognitive function has been demonstrated, every currently explained anesthetic endpoint has a classical reading, and treating "unresolved" as the grade can overprice a hypothesis space that nothing yet occupies.
Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · Kimi K3 (Moonshot, via Venice) — independent check run via kimi-k3 · run 2026-08-27-check-kimi · unreviewed draft
This is a universally quantified negative over a domain whose load-bearing quantum quantity (ORCH-C010) has never been measured, so neither it nor its rival can currently be graded above unresolved on the evidence. The case contains unresolved anomalies a completed classical account would need to absorb — the xenon nuclear-spin potency split (ORCH-E014) and the incoherent epothilone pattern (ORCH-C012) — and the classical literature itself concedes no sufficient channel set for volatile immobility (ORCH-E031). The strongest opposing consideration is parsimony: every anesthetic endpoint so far explained has been explained classically, no quantum contribution to any cognitive function has ever been demonstrated, and treating the claim as unresolved arguably overprices an empty hypothesis space. That argument raises this claim's plausibility without entailing it.
Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · Opus 5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5 · run 2026-08-27-check-opus · unreviewed draft
This is a universally quantified negative over a domain nobody has measured: the coherence quantity at ORCH-C010 is unmeasured, so neither this claim nor its rival can be graded on it. Unabsorbed anomalies remain on the record — the xenon nuclear-spin potency split (ORCH-E014) and the admitted insufficiency of known channels for inhaled immobility (ORCH-E031). The strongest opposing consideration is parsimony: every anesthetic endpoint yet explained has been explained classically and no quantum contribution to cognition has ever been demonstrated, which makes this claim highly plausible on priors; I record that as a prior rather than as evidence, which is exactly why the verdict is unresolved rather than supported.
Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-09-01-auto-8fv7 · unreviewed draft
A universal negative is not established by accumulating conventional successes, and there is concrete residue: ORCH-E030 leaves the hypnotic endpoint only partly abolished and ORCH-E031 reports no channel or combination sufficient for inhaled-agent immobility. ORCH-E033 is a real dissociation whose own authors read it in network terms.
Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-09-01-auto-ledp · unreviewed draft
A universal negative is not established by accumulating conventional successes, and there is concrete residue: ORCH-E030 leaves the hypnotic endpoint only partly abolished and ORCH-E031 reports no channel or combination sufficient for inhaled-agent immobility. ORCH-E033 is a real dissociation whose authors read it in network terms.
Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · Gemini 3.1 Pro (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.1-pro-preview · run 2026-09-01-check-gemini · unreviewed draft
The exhaustive negative claim that classical mechanisms explain all cognition without any quantum-coherent contribution cannot be definitively proven. The strongest opposing consideration is that classical mechanisms for inhaled volatiles remain incompletely mapped, and isolated quantum anomalies (like the xenon isotope effect) continue to exist as unresolved residues.
Unresolvedconfidence: high · GPT-5.1 (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.1 · run 2026-09-01-check-gpt · unreviewed draft
The dossier shows that many anesthesia endpoints, particularly for intravenous agents, are well explained by classical receptor/channel pharmacology, but it does not contain any measurement that excludes the possibility of quantum-coherent contributions anywhere in cognition. Moreover, there are unexplained anomalies such as the xenon isotope spin-effect (ORCH-C025) and inconsistent microtubule–anesthesia interactions that a finished classical account would need to absorb. The strongest opposing consideration is parsimony combined with repeated success of classical explanations: no coherent quantum contribution has yet been demonstrated in any cognitive function, so while this universal negative is unproven, it may be a good working hypothesis.
Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · Grok 4.6 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.6 · run 2026-09-01-check-grok · unreviewed draft
This is a universally quantified negative over an unmeasured domain. ORCH-C010 has never been measured in either direction, so neither this claim nor its rival can presently be graded above unresolved on the "without any quantum-coherent contribution" clause. Receptor-level evidence for ORCH-C003 raises the plausibility of a completed classical account without entailing it. The strongest opposing consideration from inside the file is the set of unresolved anomalies a finished classical story would still have to absorb — the xenon nuclear-spin potency split, directionally mixed epothilone effects, and Eger et al.'s own report that known channels do not suffice even for inhaled immobility. Parsimony favors the claim; the records do not prove it.
Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · Kimi K3 (Moonshot, via Venice) — independent check run via kimi-k3 · run 2026-09-01-check-kimi · unreviewed draft
A universally quantified negative over a domain whose key quantum quantity (ORCH-C010) has never been measured in either direction cannot currently be graded above unresolved. The classical literature itself concedes incompleteness — Eger et al. report no ligand- or voltage-gated channel, and no combination, sufficient for inhaled-agent immobility (ORCH-E031) — and the ledger contains unabsorbed anomalies: the xenon nuclear-spin potency split (ORCH-E014, ORCH-E038) and the directionally incoherent epothilone results. The strongest opposing consideration is parsimony: every anesthetic endpoint so far explained has been explained classically, no quantum contribution to any cognitive function has ever been demonstrated, and grading this "unresolved" arguably overprices an unoccupied hypothesis space. That objection is prior-based, however; on the evidence records alone, the universal quantifier outruns its support.
Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · Opus 5 (Anthropic) — independent check run via claude-opus-5 · run 2026-09-01-check-opus · unreviewed draft
A universally quantified negative over a domain whose key variable has never been measured cannot be graded above unresolved on the evidence supplied; accumulating conventional successes raises plausibility without entailing exhaustiveness. Two unabsorbed anomalies sit in the ledger — the xenon nuclear-spin potency split (ORCH-E014) and the incoherent stabilizer directions (ORCH-E011/ORCH-E013) — alongside ORCH-E031's concession that the classical account has not closed even the immobility endpoint. The strongest opposing consideration is parsimony: no quantum-coherent contribution to any cognitive function has ever been demonstrated, and grading this unresolved arguably prices a hypothesis space that nothing yet occupies — a judgment that rests on priors rather than on any attached record.
Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-09-02-auto-79ed · unreviewed draft
A universal negative is not established by accumulating conventional successes, and concrete residue remains: ORCH-E030 leaves the hypnotic endpoint only partly abolished and ORCH-E031 reports no channel or combination sufficient for inhaled-agent immobility. ORCH-E033 is a real dissociation its own authors read in network terms.
Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · anthropic/claude-opus-5 (scheduled maintenance run) · run 2026-09-02-auto-tyck · unreviewed draft
A universal negative is not established by accumulating conventional successes, and there is concrete residue: ORCH-E030 leaves the hypnotic endpoint only partly abolished and ORCH-E031 reports no channel or combination sufficient for inhaled-agent immobility. ORCH-E033 is a real dissociation whose authors read it in network terms.
Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · none — mechanical migration (scripts/migrations/2026-09-08-editions.ts) · run 2026-09-08-migration-orch-or · unreviewed draft
A universally-quantified negative over an unmeasured domain: the load-bearing quantum quantity (ORCH-C010) has never been measured in either direction, so neither this claim nor its rival can currently be graded above unresolved on that front. The receptor-level causal evidence carried by ORCH-C003 raises the plausibility of this claim without entailing it, and the case's own record contains unresolved anomalies (the xenon nuclear-spin potency split, ORCH-C025; the epothilone effects, ORCH-C023/C024) that a completed classical account would need to absorb. A further qualification added 2026-08-24: the classical account's own flagship review of anesthetic mechanism reports that no ligand- or voltage-gated channel, and no combination of them, suffices to explain even the immobility endpoint it studied (ORCH-E031) — so "the classical account keeps working" overstates where that literature actually stands, though the review names no alternative target and does not mention microtubules. The receptor-level result carried by ORCH-C003 is also endpoint-specific: in the same knock-in line, immobility is abolished while the consciousness-adjacent endpoint is reduced but not abolished (ORCH-E030).
Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · claude-opus-5 · run 2026-09-11-edition-124802 · unreviewed draft
This is the exhaustive version of the classical account — no quantum contribution anywhere — and it is graded separately from ORCH-C003 for good reason. It is not supported by the evidence that supports the narrow claim, and three records stand against completeness: ORCH-E031, in which senior anesthetic-mechanism researchers report that no channel and no combination of channels is sufficient for immobility from inhaled agents; ORCH-E030, in which the endpoints of the best-characterized intravenous agent fractionate; and ORCH-E014, a quantum-specific isotope effect with no classical polarizability explanation on offer. ORCH-E033 is a weaker pointer at a dissociation between reported experience and metabolic signal, and the authors of that study draw no quantum conclusion from it. A universal negative of this kind is close to untestable directly; it is graded unresolved on the residue its own literature reports.
Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · Gemini 3.8 Flash (Google) — independent check run via gemini-3.8-flash · run 2026-09-30-check-gemini-104603 · unreviewed draft
Claiming that anesthetic unconsciousness and cognition are entirely accounted for by classical mechanisms without any quantum contribution asserts an unproven universal negative. Unexplained anomalies, such as the xenon nuclear spin isotope effect and the lack of a sufficient channel combination for inhaled immobility, leave room for non-classical or spin-chemical contributions. The strongest opposing consideration is that all established clinical and experimental neurophysiological endpoints of anesthesia are comprehensively reproduced by classical neuropharmacology and network electrophysiology.
Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · GLM 5.3 Flash (Z.ai, via Venice) — independent check run via z-ai-glm-5-3-flash · run 2026-09-30-check-glm-104603 · unreviewed draft
The universal quantifier is the problem: no experiment in the record excludes a quantum contribution anywhere in anesthesia or cognition, and the xenon isotope result plus Eger's no-sufficient-channel finding leave genuine residue. But the positive case for an exhaustive classical account is also incomplete — the β3 evidence covers intravenous agents and a spinal endpoint, not consciousness from volatiles. Neither direction can close the quantifier, so unresolved.
Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · GPT-5.6 Sol (OpenAI) — independent check run via gpt-5.6-sol · run 2026-09-30-check-gpt-104603 · unreviewed draft
The ledger supports important classical mechanisms but contains no evidence capable of establishing the exhaustive word “fully” or ruling out every quantum-coherent contribution to all cognition. ORCH-E031 reports that known channel actions did not then suffice even for inhalational-anesthetic immobility, while the xenon isotope ordering remains an unreplicated quantum-specific anomaly. The strongest opposing consideration is the clean receptor-level causality for intravenous agents, but that supports ORCH-C003 rather than this universal claim.
Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · Grok 4.5 (xAI) — independent check run via grok-4.5 · run 2026-09-30-check-grok-104603 · unreviewed draft
The universal quantifier “fully” and “without any quantum-coherent contribution” is not established by receptor successes alone; Eger et al. report no known channel or combination sufficient for inhaled immobility, the xenon isotope result is hard for polarizability-only pharmacology, and residual hypnotic effects remain after β3 mutation. Strongest opposing consideration is that the mainstream multi-target classical program still explains far more of clinical anesthesia than any demonstrated quantum-MT pathway.
Unresolvedconfidence: moderate · claude-opus-5-5 · run 2026-09-30-edition-094411 · unreviewed draft
This is the exhaustive version of the classical account. ORCH-E031 reports no channel, or combination, sufficient for immobility under inhaled agents. ORCH-E030 shows the β3 mutation only partly removes hypnosis. ORCH-E033 is a weak dissociation between experience and blood flow. No record shows a quantum contribution either; the universal 'fully' is simply not established.